Ebola virus disease in West Africa — the first 9 Months of the epidemic and forward projections

BACKGROUND On March 23, 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) was notified of an outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Guinea. On August 8, the WHO declared the epidemic to be a "public health emergency of international concern." METHODS By September 14, 2014, a total of 4507 probable and confirmed cases, including 2296 deaths from EVD (Zaire species) had been reported from five countries in West Africa - Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, and Sierra Leone. We analyzed a detailed subset of data on 3343 confirmed and 667 probable Ebola cases collected in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone as of September 14. RESULTS The majority of patients are 15 to 44 years of age (49.9% male), and we estimate that the case fatality rate is 70.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 69 to 73) among persons with known clinical outcome of infection. The course of infection, including signs and symptoms, incubation period (11.4 days), and serial interval (15.3 days), is similar to that reported in previous outbreaks of EVD. On the basis of the initial periods of exponential growth, the estimated basic reproduction numbers (R-0) are 1.71 (95% CI, 1.44 to 2.01) for Guinea, 1.83 (95% CI, 1.72 to 1.94) for Liberia, and 2.02 (95% CI, 1.79 to 2.26) for Sierra Leone. The estimated current reproduction numbers (R) are 1.81 (95% CI, 1.60 to 2.03) for Guinea, 1.51 (95% CI, 1.41 to 1.60) for Liberia, and 1.38 (95% CI, 1.27 to 1.51) for Sierra Leone; the corresponding doubling times are 15.7 days (95% CI, 12.9 to 20.3) for Guinea, 23.6 days (95% CI, 20.2 to 28.2) for Liberia, and 30.2 days (95% CI, 23.6 to 42.3) for Sierra Leone. Assuming no change in the control measures for this epidemic, by November 2, 2014, the cumulative reported numbers of confirmed and probable cases are predicted to be 5740 in Guinea, 9890 in Liberia, and 5000 in Sierra Leone, exceeding 20,000 in total. CONCLUSIONS These data indicate that without drastic improvements in control measures, the numbers of cases of and deaths from EVD are expected to continue increasing from hundreds to thousands per week in the coming months

Using short-message-service notification as a method to improve acute flaccid paralysis surveillance in Papua New Guinea

Abstract Background High quality acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance is required to maintain polio-free status of a country. Papua New Guinea (PNG) is considered as one of the highest risk countries for polio re-importation and circulation in the Western Pacific Region (WPRO) of the World Health Organization due to poor healthcare infrastructure and inadequate performance in AFP surveillance. The Government of PNG, in collaboration with WHO, piloted the introduction of short-message-service (SMS) to sensitize pediatricians and provincial disease control officers on AFP and to receive notification of possible AFP cases to improve surveillance quality in PNG. Methods Ninety six health care professionals were registered to receive SMS reminders to report any case of acute flaccid paralysis. Fourteen SMS messages were sent to each participant from September 2012 to November 2013. The number of reported AFP cases were compared before and after the introduction of SMS. Results Two hundred fifty three unique responses were received with an overall response rate of 21 %. More than 80 % of responses were reported within 3 days of sending the SMS. The number of reported AFP cases increased from 10 cases per year in 2009–2012 to 25 cases per year during the study period and correlated with provincial participation of the health care professionals. Conclusions Combined with improved sensitization of health care professionals on AFP reporting criteria and sample collection, SMS messaging provides an effective means to increase timely reporting and improve the availability of epidemiologic information on polio surveillance in PNG

After Ebola in West Africa — unpredictable risks, preventable epidemics

Between December 2013 and April 2016, the largest epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) to date generated more than 28,000 cases and more than 11,000 deaths in the large, mobile populations of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. Tracking the rapid rise and slower decline of the West African epidemic has reinforced some common understandings about the epidemiology and control of EVD but has also generated new insights. Despite having more information about the geographic distribution of the disease, the risk of human infection from animals and from survivors of EVD remains unpredictable over a wide area of equatorial Africa. Until human exposure to infection can be anticipated or avoided, future outbreaks will have to be managed with the classic approach to EVD control — extensive surveillance, rapid detection and diagnosis, comprehensive tracing of contacts, prompt patient isolation, supportive clinical care, rigorous efforts to prevent and control infection, safe and dignified burial, and engagement of the community. Empirical and modeling studies conducted during the West African epidemic have shown that large epidemics of EVD are preventable — a rapid response can interrupt transmission and restrict the size of outbreaks, even in densely populated cities. The critical question now is how to ensure that populations and their health services are ready for the next outbreak, wherever it may occur. Health security across Africa and beyond depends on committing resources to both strengthen national health systems and sustain investment in the next generation of vaccines, drugs, and diagnostics