Forecasting daily attendances at an emergency department to aid resource planning

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Accurate forecasting of emergency department (ED) attendances can be a valuable tool for micro and macro level planning.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data for analysis was the counts of daily patient attendances at the ED of an acute care regional general hospital from July 2005 to Mar 2008. Patients were stratified into three acuity categories; i.e. P1, P2 and P3, with P1 being the most acute and P3 being the least acute. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method was separately applied to each of the three acuity categories and total patient attendances. Independent variables included in the model were public holiday (yes or no), ambient air quality measured by pollution standard index (PSI), daily ambient average temperature and daily relative humidity. The seasonal components of weekly and yearly periodicities in the time series of daily attendances were also studied. Univariate analysis by t-tests and multivariate time series analysis were carried out in SPSS version 15.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>By time series analyses, P1 attendances did not show any weekly or yearly periodicity and was only predicted by ambient air quality of PSI > 50. P2 and total attendances showed weekly periodicities, and were also significantly predicted by public holiday. P3 attendances were significantly correlated with day of the week, month of the year, public holiday, and ambient air quality of PSI > 50.</p> <p>After applying the developed models to validate the forecast, the MAPE of prediction by the models were 16.8%, 6.7%, 8.6% and 4.8% for P1, P2, P3 and total attendances, respectively. The models were able to account for most of the significant autocorrelations present in the data.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Time series analysis has been shown to provide a useful, readily available tool for predicting emergency department workload that can be used to plan staff roster and resource planning.</p

Primary care provider perceptions of intake transition records and shared care with outpatient cardiac rehabilitation programs

Abstract Background While it is recommended that records are kept between primary care providers (PCPs) and specialists during patient transitions from hospital to community care, this communication is not currently standardized. We aimed to assess the transmission of cardiac rehabilitation (CR) program intake transition records to PCPs and to explore PCPs' needs in communication with CR programs and for intake transition record content. Method 144 PCPs of consenting enrollees from 8 regional and urban Ontario CR programs participated in this cross-sectional study. Intake transition records were tracked from the CR program to the PCP's office. Sixty-six PCPs participated in structured telephone interviews. Results Sixty-eight (47.6%) PCPs received a CR intake transition record. Fifty-eight (87.9%) PCPs desired intake transition records, with most wanting it transmitted via fax (n = 52, 78.8%). On a 5-point Likert scale, PCPs strongly agreed that the CR transition record met their needs for providing patient care (4.32 ± 0.61), with 48 (76.2%) reporting that it improved their management of patients' cardiac risk. PCPs rated the following elements as most important to include in an intake transition record: clinical status (4.67 ± 0.64), exercise test results (4.61 ± 0.52), and the proposed patient care plan (4.59 ± 0.71). Conclusions Less than half of intake transition records are reaching PCPs, revealing a large gap in continuity of patient care. PCP responses should be used to develop an evidence-based intake transition record, and procedures should be implemented to ensure high-quality transitional care

A 6-months assessment of the alcohol-related clinical burden at emergency rooms (ERs) in 11 acute care hospitals of an urban area in Germany

BACKGROUND: The purpose of the study was to identify and to profile alcohol-related attendances to emergency rooms (ERs) of 11 hospitals of various medical specialties covering a large urban population, to assess risk factors associated with short-stay cases, repeat attendances and higher degree of alcohol consumption and to estimate their impact on the alcohol-related burden at ERs. METHODS: A 6-months study was carried out to obtain clinical and administrative data on single and multiple attendances at ERs in 11 governmental acute hospitals in a large city in Germany. All alcohol-related attendances at ERs of study hospitals were eligible. A broad definition of alcohol-related attendances independently from alcohol diagnosis and various demographic, clinical and administrative measures were used. Odds ratios for the associations of these measures with duration of stay, repeat attendances and higher degrees of alcohol consumption were derived from multivariate binomial and multinomial logistic regression models. RESULTS: 1,748 patients with symptoms of alcohol consumption or withdrawal (inclusion rate 83.8%) yielded 2,372 attendances (3% of all medical admissions), and resulted in 12,629 inpatient-days. These patients accounted for 10.7 cases per 1,000 inhabitants. The average duration of inpatient stay was 10 days. 1,451 of all patients (83%) presented once, whereas the median of repeat attendances was three for the remaining 297 patients. Short-stay cases (<24 hours) were significantly linked with male gender, alcohol misuse, trauma (or suspicion of a trauma) and medical specialties. Increased levels of alcohol consumption at first attendance were significantly associated with repeat attendances in due course. In a multinomial logistic regression model higher degrees of alcohol consumption were significantly associated with male gender, trauma, short-stays, attendance outside regular working time, and with repeat attendances and self-discharge. CONCLUSION: Apart from demographic factors, the alcohol-related clinical burden is largely determined by short-stay cases, repeat attendances and cases with higher levels of alcohol consumption at first attendance varying across medical specialties. These findings could be relevant for the planning of anti-alcoholic interventions at ERs