Fortune Favours the Bold: An Agent-Based Model Reveals Adaptive Advantages of Overconfidence in War

Overconfidence has long been considered a cause of war. Like other decision-making biases, overconfidence seems detrimental because it increases the frequency and costs of fighting. However, evolutionary biologists have proposed that overconfidence may also confer adaptive advantages: increasing ambition, resolve, persistence, bluffing opponents, and winning net payoffs from risky opportunities despite occasional failures. We report the results of an agent-based model of inter-state conflict, which allows us to evaluate the performance of different strategies in competition with each other. Counter-intuitively, we find that overconfident states predominate in the population at the expense of unbiased or underconfident states. Overconfident states win because: (1) they are more likely to accumulate resources from frequent attempts at conquest; (2) they are more likely to gang up on weak states, forcing victims to split their defences; and (3) when the decision threshold for attacking requires an overwhelming asymmetry of power, unbiased and underconfident states shirk many conflicts they are actually likely to win. These “adaptive advantages” of overconfidence may, via selection effects, learning, or evolved psychology, have spread and become entrenched among modern states, organizations and decision-makers. This would help to explain the frequent association of overconfidence and war, even if it no longer brings benefits today

Can information affect sensory perceptions? Evidence from a survey on Italian organic food consumers

This paper aims to investigate the influence of information on consumers’ preferences and sensory perceptions of organic food using a sample of 301 Italian organic food consumers. Consumers stated their preferences for “core organic” attributes, labels and information on food products and performed blind and informed tests on strawberry yoghurts and cookies. Data were analysed using descriptive analysis, Mann-Whitney U tests and Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Results revealed that consumers appreciate “core organic” attributes, like artisanal production and variability of sensory attributes. Comparing blind and informed tests, results showed that information affects the overall liking of products and consumers’ perception of product-specific sensory attributes. However, the influence of information on sensory perceptions depends on the product category, sensory attributes and the type of information provided

Diffusion of MMPs on the Surface of Collagen Fibrils: The Mobile Cell Surface – Collagen Substratum Interface

Remodeling of the extracellular matrix catalyzed by MMPs is central to morphogenetic phenomena during development and wound healing as well as in numerous pathologic conditions such as fibrosis and cancer. We have previously demonstrated that secreted MMP-2 is tethered to the cell surface and activated by MT1-MMP/TIMP-2-dependent mechanism. The resulting cell-surface collagenolytic complex (MT1-MMP)2/TIMP-2/MMP-2 can initiate (MT1-MMP) and complete (MMP-2) degradation of an underlying collagen fibril. The following question remained: What is the mechanism of substrate recognition involving the two structures of relatively restricted mobility, the cell surface enzymatic complex and a collagen fibril embedded in the ECM? Here we demonstrate that all the components of the complex are capable of processive movement on a surface of the collagen fibril. The mechanism of MT1-MMP movement is a biased diffusion with the bias component dependent on the proteolysis of its substrate, not adenosine triphosphate (ATP) hydrolysis. It is similar to that of the MMP-1 Brownian ratchet we described earlier. In addition, both MMP-2 and MMP-9 as well as their respective complexes with TIMP-1 and -2 are capable of Brownian diffusion on the surface of native collagen fibrils without noticeable dissociation while the dimerization of MMP-9 renders the enzyme immobile. Most instructive is the finding that the inactivation of the enzymatic activity of MT1-MMP has a detectable negative effect on the cell force developed in miniaturized 3D tissue constructs. We propose that the collagenolytic complex (MT1-MMP)2/TIMP-2/MMP-2 represents a Mobile Cell Surface – Collagen Substratum Interface. The biological implications of MT1-MMP acting as a molecular ratchet tethered to the cell surface in complex with MMP-2 suggest a new mechanism for the role of spatially regulated peri-cellular proteolysis in cell-matrix interactions

International Consensus Statement on Rhinology and Allergy: Rhinosinusitis

Background: The 5 years since the publication of the first International Consensus Statement on Allergy and Rhinology: Rhinosinusitis (ICAR‐RS) has witnessed foundational progress in our understanding and treatment of rhinologic disease. These advances are reflected within the more than 40 new topics covered within the ICAR‐RS‐2021 as well as updates to the original 140 topics. This executive summary consolidates the evidence‐based findings of the document. Methods: ICAR‐RS presents over 180 topics in the forms of evidence‐based reviews with recommendations (EBRRs), evidence‐based reviews, and literature reviews. The highest grade structured recommendations of the EBRR sections are summarized in this executive summary. Results: ICAR‐RS‐2021 covers 22 topics regarding the medical management of RS, which are grade A/B and are presented in the executive summary. Additionally, 4 topics regarding the surgical management of RS are grade A/B and are presented in the executive summary. Finally, a comprehensive evidence‐based management algorithm is provided. Conclusion: This ICAR‐RS‐2021 executive summary provides a compilation of the evidence‐based recommendations for medical and surgical treatment of the most common forms of RS