Climate Change in Asia: A Review of the Vulnerability and Adaptation of Crop Production

A number of studies have provided quantitative assessments of the potential climate change impacts on crop production in Asia. Estimates take into account (a) uncertainty in the level of climate change expected, using a range of climate change scenarios; (b) physiological effects of carbon dioxide on the crops; and (c) different adaptive responses. In all cases, the effects of climate change induced by increased atmospheric carbon dioxide depended on the counteracting effects among higher daily evapotranspiration rates, shortening of crop growth duration, and changes in precipitation patterns, as well as the effects of carbon dioxide on crop growth and water-use efficiency. Although results varied depending on the geographical locations of the regions tested, the production of rice (the main food crop in the region) generally did not benefit from climate change. In South and Southeast Asia, there is concern about how climate change may affect El Nino/Southern Oscillation events, since these play a key role in determining agricultural production. Furthermore, problems arising from variability of water availability and soil degradation are currently major challenges to agriculture in the region. These problems may be exacerbated in the future if global climate change projections are realized. Many studies have considered strategies for improving agricultural management, based on the optimization of crop management decisions. Climate change analyses could be further strengthened by economic studies that integrate the potential use of natural resources across sectors

Regional climate changes as simulated in time-slice experiments

Three 30 year long simulations have been performed with a T42 atmosphere model, in which the sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice distribution have been taken from a transient climate change experiment with a T21 global coupled ocean-atmosphere model. In this so-called time-slice experiment, the SST values (and the greenhouse gas concentration) were taken at present time CO2 level, at the time of CO2 doubling and tripling. The annual cycle of temperature and precipitation has been studied over the IPCC regions and has been compared with observations. Additionally the combination of temperature and precipitation change has been analysed. Further parameters investigated include the difference between daily minimum and maximum temperature, the rainfall intensity and the length of droughts. While the regional simulation of the annual cycle of the near surface temperature is quite realistic with deviations rarely exceeding 3 K, the precipitation is reproduced to a much smaller degree of accuracy. The changes in temperature at the time of CO2 doubling amount to only 30-40 of those at the 3 * CO2 level and show hardly any seasonal variation, contrary to the 3 * CO2 experiment. The comparatively small response to the CO2 doubling can be attributed to the cold-start of the simulation, from which the SST has been extracted. The strong change in the seasonality cannot be explained by internal fluctuations and cold start alone, but has to be caused by feedback mechanisms. Due to the delay in warming caused by the transient experiment, from which the SST has been derived, the 3 * CO2 experiment can be compared to the CO2 doubling studies performed with mixed-layer models. The precipitation change does not display a clear signal. However, an increase of the rain intensity and of longer dry periods is simulated in many regions of the globe. The changes in these parameters as well as the combination of temperature- and precipitation change and the changes in the daily temperature range give valuable hints, in which regions observational studies should be intensified and under which aspects the observational data should be evaluated. © 1995 Kluwer Academic Publishers