Using a New Open Economy Macroeconomics model to make real nominal exchange rate forecasts

In this paper we undertake an out-of-sample evaluation of the ability of a model to forecast the Swedish Krona’s real and nominal effective exchange rate, using a cointegrating relation between the real exchange rate, relative output, terms of trade and net foreign assets (or alternatively the trade balance). The cointegrating relation is derived from a theoretical model of the New Open Economy Macroeconomics type. The forecasting performance of our estimated vector error correction model is quite good once the dynamics of the model have been augmented with an interest rate differential.New Open Economy Macroeconomics; real exchange rate; nominal exchange rate; forecasting

Line identification and lifetime measurements in the XUV and soft X-ray regions

A summary of the data acquired concerning line identification and lifetime measurements in the xuv and soft X-ray regions for a variety of both resonance transitions and forbidden transitions in ions of astrophysical interest is provided. Particular attention is called to a few papers which appeared in the Astrophysical Journal. These are of special relevance to specific astrophysical data needs. The many experiments completed in areas related to but somewhat outside the confines of the project title are mentioned

On modelling of slope stability in sensitive clay

The stability of natural slopes is a global problem, with the number of landslides and the associated socioeconomic losses increasing, as a result of the global trend of urbanisation, deforestation and changed weather patterns. The available methods for identifying potential failure modes and assessing the stability, however, overly simplify the modelled soil behaviour within a slope, which might lead to unnecessary mitigation measures or non-conservative results. On the other hand, advanced soil models suitable to capture the response of sensitive clays, have successfully been demonstrated for Serviceability Limit State problems in geotechnics. Yet, those advanced models have not been exploited for effective stress based slope stability analyses.The aim of this thesis, therefore, is to explore and integrate advanced soil models for analysing the stability of slopes in natural sensitive clay. As such, the evolving hydromechanical processes known to be occurring in a slope, ranging from anisotropy to rate dependency, should be accounted for. The main research effort has consisted of; (i) verification of the use of an anisotropic failure criterion, based on the NGI-ADP model, in the upper bound limit analysis Discontinuity Layout Optimisation (DLO), and (ii) investigation the applicability of the advanced, rate-dependent, Creep-SCLAY1S model for analysing slope stability.The result findings indicate that DLO is a most satisfactory alternative to the use of the NGI-ADP model in a Finite Element code, and a more robust alternative than Limit EquilibriumMethod. Furthermore, the second part of the study showed that while it is feasible to use a rate-dependent model for slopes, great care needs to be taken to the initialisation of the state variables, most notably the effective stress state in the sloping ground. The best results were obtained by approximately simulating the geological formation processes leading to a natural slope. The gravity increase method, instead of the strength reduction method, was required to quantify the slope stability. Consequently, the rate of increasing the gravity, i.e. the rate of loading, was shown to have a significant impact on the mobilised shear strength, thereby also the calculated stability. Overall, this thesis has contributed to the understanding of the transient coupled hydromechanical processes acting in a natural slope, and have shown that simplifications are necessary for practical applications

Literary Aftershocks of the Revolution: Recent Developments in Algerian Literature

Most Algerian Francophone literature has been written since 1950, and thus the development of that literature has been intimately linked to the political events which forged the Algerian nation. Especially influential was the 1954-62 war of independence which for many years was a major contextual element in the literature. With the passage of time, the Revolution has begun to be less and less cognitive in the lives and works of the young writers. For some, Revolution lives on in the oneiric evocations of horrors glimpsed, for others it is something relegated to history, whereas for yet others it has become a political and social device. The role the Revolution plays in a writer\u27s creativity has tended to dichotomize the literature into a conservative branch of inward- and backward-looking patriotism and a radical branch of outward- and forward-looking experimentation. Both branches present equally fervent defenses of their loyalty to their country based on a variety of arguments, but the radical branch, regardless of its relative worth in terms of internal affairs, certainly is the branch which tends to transcend national idiom and to express itself in terms of wide-spread and universal literary values