Statistical estimates of absenteeism attributable to seasonal and pandemic influenza from the Canadian Labour Force Survey

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>As many respiratory viruses are responsible for influenza like symptoms, accurate measures of the disease burden are not available and estimates are generally based on statistical methods. The objective of this study was to estimate absenteeism rates and hours lost due to seasonal influenza and compare these estimates with estimates of absenteeism attributable to the two H1N1 pandemic waves that occurred in 2009.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Key absenteeism variables were extracted from Statistics Canada's monthly labour force survey (LFS). Absenteeism and the proportion of hours lost due to own illness or disability were modelled as a function of trend, seasonality and proxy variables for influenza activity from 1998 to 2009.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Hours lost due to the H1N1/09 pandemic strain were elevated compared to seasonal influenza, accounting for a loss of 0.2% of potential hours worked annually. In comparison, an estimated 0.08% of hours worked annually were lost due to seasonal influenza illnesses. Absenteeism rates due to influenza were estimated at 12% per year for seasonal influenza over the 1997/98 to 2008/09 seasons, and 13% for the two H1N1/09 pandemic waves. Employees who took time off due to a seasonal influenza infection took an average of 14 hours off. For the pandemic strain, the average absence was 25 hours.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study confirms that absenteeism due to seasonal influenza has typically ranged from 5% to 20%, with higher rates associated with multiple circulating strains. Absenteeism rates for the 2009 pandemic were similar to those occurring for seasonal influenza. Employees took more time off due to the pandemic strain than was typical for seasonal influenza.</p

The methodology for developing a prospective meta-analysis in the family planning community

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Prospective meta-analysis (PMA) is a collaborative research design in which individual sites perform randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and pool the data for meta-analysis. Members of the PMA collaboration agree upon specific research interventions and outcome measures, ideally before initiation but at least prior to any individual trial publishing results. This allows for uniform reporting of primary and secondary outcomes. With this approach, heterogeneity among trials contributing data for the final meta-analysis is minimized while each site maintains the freedom to design a specific trial. This paper describes the process of creating a PMA collaboration to evaluate the impact of misoprostol on ease of intrauterine device (IUD) insertion in nulliparous women.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>After the principal investigator developed a preliminary PMA protocol, he identified potential collaborating investigators at other sites. One site already had a trial underway and another site was in the planning stages of a trial meeting PMA requirements. Investigators at six sites joined the PMA collaborative. Each site committed to enroll subjects to meet a pre-determined total sample size. A final common research plan and site responsibilities were developed and agreed upon through email and face-to-face meetings. Each site committed to contribute individual patient data to the PMA collaboration, and these data will be analyzed and prepared as a multi-site publication. Individual sites retain the ability to analyze and publish their site's independent findings.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>All six sites have obtained Institutional Review Board approval and each has obtained individual funding to meet the needs of that site's study. Sites have shared resources including study protocols and consents to decrease costs and improve study flow. This PMA protocol is registered with the Cochrane Collaboration and data will be analyzed according to Cochrane standards for meta-analysis.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>PMA is a novel research method that improves meta-analysis by including several study sites, establishing uniform reporting of specific outcomes, and yet allowing some independence on the part of individual sites with respect to the conduct of research. The inclusion of several sites increases statistical power to address important clinical questions. Compared to multi-center trials, PMA methodology encourages collaboration, aids in the development of new investigators, decreases study costs, and decreases time to publication.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov: <a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00613366">NCT00613366</a>, <a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00886834">NCT00886834</a>, <a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01001897">NCT01001897</a>, <a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01147497">NCT01147497</a> and <a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01307111">NCT01307111</a></p

Nasty Viruses, Costly Plasmids, Population Dynamics, and the Conditions for Establishing and Maintaining CRISPR-Mediated Adaptive Immunity in Bacteria

Clustered, Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats (CRISPR) abound in the genomes of almost all archaebacteria and nearly half the eubacteria sequenced. Through a genetic interference mechanism, bacteria with CRISPR regions carrying copies of the DNA of previously encountered phage and plasmids abort the replication of phage and plasmids with these sequences. Thus it would seem that protection against infecting phage and plasmids is the selection pressure responsible for establishing and maintaining CRISPR in bacterial populations. But is it? To address this question and provide a framework and hypotheses for the experimental study of the ecology and evolution of CRISPR, I use mathematical models of the population dynamics of CRISPR-encoding bacteria with lytic phage and conjugative plasmids. The results of the numerical (computer simulation) analysis of the properties of these models with parameters in the ranges estimated for Escherichia coli and its phage and conjugative plasmids indicate: (1) In the presence of lytic phage there are broad conditions where bacteria with CRISPR-mediated immunity will have an advantage in competition with non-CRISPR bacteria with otherwise higher Malthusian fitness. (2) These conditions for the existence of CRISPR are narrower when there is envelope resistance to the phage. (3) While there are situations where CRISPR-mediated immunity can provide bacteria an advantage in competition with higher Malthusian fitness bacteria bearing deleterious conjugative plasmids, the conditions for this to obtain are relatively narrow and the intensity of selection favoring CRISPR weak. The parameters of these models can be independently estimated, the assumption behind their construction validated, and the hypotheses generated from the analysis of their properties tested in experimental populations of bacteria with lytic phage and conjugative plasmids. I suggest protocols for estimating these parameters and outline the design of experiments to evaluate the validity of these models and test these hypotheses

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in the Elderly Based on Administrative Databases: Change in Immunization Habit as a Marker for Bias

Administrative databases provide efficient methods to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) against severe outcomes in the elderly but are prone to intractable bias. This study returns to one of the linked population databases by which IVE against hospitalization and death in the elderly was first assessed. We explore IVE across six more recent influenza seasons, including periods before, during, and after peak activity to identify potential markers for bias.Acute respiratory hospitalization and all-cause mortality were compared between immunized/non-immunized community-dwelling seniors ≥65 years through administrative databases in Manitoba, Canada between 2000-01 and 2005-06. IVE was compared during pre-season/influenza/post-season periods through logistic regression with multivariable adjustment (age/sex/income/residence/prior influenza or pneumococcal immunization/medical visits/comorbidity), stratification based on prior influenza immunization history, and propensity scores. Analysis during pre-season periods assessed baseline differences between immunized and unimmunized groups. The study population included ∼140,000 seniors, of whom 50-60% were immunized annually. Adjustment for key covariates and use of propensity scores consistently increased IVE. Estimates were paradoxically higher pre-season and for all-cause mortality vs. acute respiratory hospitalization. Stratified analysis showed that those twice consecutively and currently immunized were always at significantly lower hospitalization/mortality risk with odds ratios (OR) of 0.60 [95%CI0.48-0.75] and 0.58 [0.53-0.64] pre-season and 0.77 [0.69-0.86] and 0.71 [0.66-0.77] during influenza circulation, relative to the consistently unimmunized. Conversely, those forgoing immunization when twice previously immunized were always at significantly higher hospitalization/mortality risk with OR of 1.41 [1.14-1.73] and 2.45 [2.21-2.72] pre-season and 1.21 [1.03-1.43] and 1.78 [1.61-1.96] during influenza circulation.The most pronounced IVE estimates were paradoxically observed pre-season, indicating bias tending to over-estimate vaccine protection. Change in immunization habit from that of the prior two years may be a marker for this bias in administrative data sets; however, no analytic technique explored could adjust for its influence. Improved methods to achieve valid interpretation of protection in the elderly are needed

Age estimation during the blow fly intra-puparial period: a qualitative and quantitative approach using micro-computed tomography

© The Author(s) 2017. Open Access. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The attached file is the published version of the article

Clinical outcomes of seasonal influenza and pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in pediatric inpatients

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In April 2009, a novel influenza A H1N1 (nH1N1) virus emerged and spread rapidly worldwide. News of the pandemic led to a heightened awareness of the consequences of influenza and generally resulted in enhanced infection control practices and strengthened vaccination efforts for both healthcare workers and the general population. Seasonal influenza (SI) illness in the pediatric population has been previously shown to result in significant morbidity, mortality, and substantial hospital resource utilization. Although influenza pandemics have the possibility of resulting in considerable illness, we must not ignore the impact that we can experience annually with SI.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We compared the outcomes of pediatric patients ≤18 years of age at a large urban hospital with laboratory confirmed influenza and an influenza-like illness (ILI) during the 2009 pandemic and two prior influenza seasons. The primary outcome measure was hospital length of stay (LOS). All variables potentially associated with LOS based on univariable analysis, previous studies, or hypothesized relationships were included in the regression models to ensure adjustment for their effects.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There were 133 pediatric cases of nH1N1 admitted during 2009 and 133 cases of SI admitted during the prior 2 influenza seasons (2007-8 and 2008-9). Thirty-six percent of children with SI and 18% of children with nH1N1 had no preexisting medical conditions (p = 0.14). Children admitted with SI had 1.73 times longer adjusted LOS than children admitted for nH1N1 (95% CI 1.35 - 2.13). There was a trend towards more children with SI requiring mechanical ventilation compared with nH1N1 (16 vs.7, p = 0.08).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study strengthens the growing body of evidence demonstrating that SI results in significant morbidity in the pediatric population. Pandemic H1N1 received considerable attention with strong media messages urging people to undergo vaccination and encouraging improved infection control efforts. We believe that this attention should become an annual effort for SI. Strong unified messages from health care providers and the media encouraging influenza vaccination will likely prove very useful in averting some of the morbidity related to influenza for future epidemics.</p

Mortality following Stroke, the Weekend Effect and Related Factors: Record Linkage Study

Increased mortality following hospitalisation for stroke has been reported from many but not all studies that have investigated a 'weekend effect' for stroke. However, it is not known whether the weekend effect is affected by factors including hospital size, season and patient distance from hospital.To assess changes over time in mortality following hospitalisation for stroke and how any increased mortality for admissions on weekends is related to factors including the size of the hospital, seasonal factors and distance from hospital.A population study using person linked inpatient, mortality and primary care data for stroke from 2004 to 2012. The outcome measures were, firstly, mortality at seven days and secondly, mortality at 30 days and one year.Overall mortality for 37 888 people hospitalised following stroke was 11.6% at seven days, 21.4% at 30 days and 37.7% at one year. Mortality at seven and 30 days fell significantly by 1.7% and 3.1% per annum respectively from 2004 to 2012. When compared with week days, mortality at seven days was increased significantly by 19% for admissions on weekends, although the admission rate was 21% lower on weekends. Although not significant, there were indications of increased mortality at seven days for weekend admissions during winter months (31%), in community (81%) rather than large hospitals (8%) and for patients resident furthest from hospital (32% for distances of >20 kilometres). The weekend effect was significantly increased (by 39%) for strokes of 'unspecified' subtype.Mortality following stroke has fallen over time. Mortality was increased for admissions at weekends, when compared with normal week days, but may be influenced by a higher stroke severity threshold for admission on weekends. Other than for unspecified strokes, we found no significant variation in the weekend effect for hospital size, season and distance from hospital

Socially learned attitude change is not reduced in medicated patients with schizophrenia

Schizophrenia is often associated with distinctive or odd social behaviours. Previous work suggests this could be due to a general reduction in conformity; however, this work only assessed the tendency to publicly agree with others, which may involve a number of different mechanisms. In this study, we specifically investigated whether patients display a reduced tendency to adopt other people’s opinions (socially learned attitude change). We administered a computerized conformity task, assumed to rely on reinforcement learning circuits, to 32 patients with schizophrenia or schizo-affective disorder and 39 matched controls. Each participant rated 153 faces for trustworthiness. After each rating, they were immediately shown the opinion of a group. After approximately 1 hour, participants were unexpectedly asked to rate all the faces again. We compared the degree of attitude change towards group opinion in patients and controls. Patients presented equal or more social influence on attitudes than controls. This effect may have been medication induced, as increased conformity was seen with higher antipsychotic dose. The results suggest that there is not a general decline in conformity in medicated patients with schizophrenia and that previous findings of reduced conformity are likely related to mechanisms other than reinforcement based social influence on attitudes

Effects of using coding potential, sequence conservation and mRNA structure conservation for predicting pyrroly-sine containing genes

BACKGROUND: Pyrrolysine (the 22nd amino acid) is in certain organisms and under certain circumstances encoded by the amber stop codon, UAG. The circumstances driving pyrrolysine translation are not well understood. The involvement of a predicted mRNA structure in the region downstream UAG has been suggested, but the structure does not seem to be present in all pyrrolysine incorporating genes. RESULTS: We propose a strategy to predict pyrrolysine encoding genes in genomes of archaea and bacteria. We cluster open reading frames interrupted by the amber codon based on sequence similarity. We rank these clusters according to several features that may influence pyrrolysine translation. The ranking effects of different features are assessed and we propose a weighted combination of these features which best explains the currently known pyrrolysine incorporating genes. We devote special attention to the effect of structural conservation and provide further substantiation to support that structural conservation may be influential – but is not a necessary factor. Finally, from the weighted ranking, we identify a number of potentially pyrrolysine incorporating genes. CONCLUSIONS: We propose a method for prediction of pyrrolysine incorporating genes in genomes of bacteria and archaea leading to insights about the factors driving pyrrolysine translation and identification of new gene candidates. The method predicts known conserved genes with high recall and predicts several other promising candidates for experimental verification. The method is implemented as a computational pipeline which is available on request

The Cosmological Constant

This is a review of the physics and cosmology of the cosmological constant. Focusing on recent developments, I present a pedagogical overview of cosmology in the presence of a cosmological constant, observational constraints on its magnitude, and the physics of a small (and potentially nonzero) vacuum energy.Comment: 50 pages. Submitted to Living Reviews in Relativity (http://www.livingreviews.org/), December 199