A Monte Carlo filtering application for systematic sensitivity analysis of computable general equilibrium results

The views expressed are purely those of the authors and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European Commission or the University of Aberdeen. The authors would like to thank Maria Espinosa, Sergio Gomez y Paloma, three reviewers and the editor for valuable comments, and Javier Alba (and the IPTS-IT department) for technical assistance.Peer reviewedPostprin

The rural-urban spillovers of EU structural policies in Cordoba, Spain

The European Union's Regional Policy and Common Agricultural Policy share a common objective of balanced regional development; in practice, they are implemented in very distinct ways as regional policies mainly focus their strategy on urban development while the CAP Pillar 2 is based on a program which is specifically targeted at rural areas. Understanding the origins of economic growth in rural and urban areas is at the core of the debate on territorial convergence and the future of both policies. This paper assesses the impacts of Regional and Rural Development Programmes on the Spanish economy of Cordoba using a bi-regional CGE model in order to shed light on their capacity to fulfill the objective of balanced regional development.JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom

Commodity Market Development in Europe – Outlook Workshop 2014. Proceedings

This report contains a summary and the presentations of the expert workshop 'Commodity Market Development in Europe – Outlook', held in October 2014 in Brussels. The workshop was held in order to present and discuss the preliminary results of the DG AGRI outlook on EU agricultural market developments. The workshop gathered high-level policy makers, modelling and market experts and provided a forum to present and discuss recent and projected developments on the EU agricultural and commodity markets, to outline the reasons behind observed and prospected developments, and to draw conclusions on the short/medium term perspectives of European agricultural markets in the context of world market developments. Special focus was given on the discussion of the influence of different settings/assumptions (regarding e.g. drivers of demand and supply, macroeconomic uncertainties, etc.) on the projected market developments.JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom

An Ex-ante Rural/Urban Analysis of Common Agricultural Policy Options

Agricultural and Food Policy,

Facilitating an area-based development approach in rural regions in the Western Balkans

The present report covers an exercise where a defined development approach (ABD) has been tested in a rural cross border case study area in the Western Balkans. The aim is to draw lessons both for continuing implementation of the ABD in this particular area and more generally initiating it in the Western Balkans. Concretely, the UNDP Area-Based Development (ABD) approach is targeting specific geographical areas characterised by a particular complex development problem (setting it apart from surrounding areas), through an integrated (multi-sector), inclusive (community versus particular groups or individuals), participatory (bottom-up) and flexible (responsive to changes) approach. This approach has been implemented in the pilot case of the Drina valley – Tara Mountain area (Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia. As a result of 6 months of interaction among stakeholders, 4 priority development themes were identified in tourism, rural development (with a special focus on agriculture), SME and entrepreneurship and environmental protection. This pilot case allowed drawing relevant lessons for the implementation of ABD to what concerns the area delineation process, the bottom-up process, the top-down accompanying framework and the institutional / legal framework. Lastly, 7 other rural cross border areas within the Western Balkans region have been identified as potential ABD target areas .JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom

Documentation of the European Comission’s EU module of the Aglink-Cosimo modelling system

This report documents the EU module of Aglink-Cosimo model. Aglink-Cosimo is a recursive-dynamic, partial equilibrium, supply demand model of world agriculture developed by the OECD and FAO Secretariats. The model is used to simulate development of annual supply, demand and prices for the main agricultural commodities produced, consumed and traded worldwide. Aglink-Cosimo covers 44 individual countries and 12 regions, and 40 commodities clearing markets at the world level. At the EU level, the Aglink-Cosimo model is used to produce the "Prospects for Agricultural Markets and Income in the EU". This is a yearly exercise that provides a detailed overview of EU agricultural markets with a 10 year time horizon. It incorporates information from policy makers and market experts in the European Commission, stakeholders, researchers and modellers. The EU Outlook intends to provide a broad consensus about the evolution of European Agriculture in the medium-term. It serves as reference timeline for counterfactual policy analysis and market analysis done in numerous research sites in Europe. The report includes a detailed presentation and discussion of the structure and specific features of the model, along with the theoretical underpinnings. It also documents the process of calibration such as to obtain a medium-term baseline and different efforts towards the validation of results. Nonetheless, different applications in the area of uncertainty analysis and the use of partial stochastics are also included.JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom

Observing and analysing the Bioeconomy in the EU – Adapting data and tools to new questions and challenges

The concept of ‘bioeconomy’ is receiving increased attention in policy and business circles. The European Commission (EC) has initiated the Bioeconomy Strategy which is a signal of intent that the EU seeks to meet the challenge of reconciling responsible-resource usage respecting sustainability criteria, with wealth-generation. To this aim, the EC’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) has been entrusted to implement a Bioeconomy Information Systems Observatory within which the objective is to develop an ongoing coherent picture of the activities of this sector, whilst developing forward-looking tools of analysis to help respond to the aforementioned challenge. This paper provides a discussion on the research activities which are currently under development at the JRC. Whilst the scale of ambition of the Bioeconomy Observatory is significant, it is recognised that much of the research conducted so-far remains work-in-progress and is therefore only a starting point to fully capturing the nuances of this diverse and complex sectorPublishe

Observing and analysing the Bioeconomy in the EU - Adapting data and tools to new questions and challenges

The concept of 'bioeconomy' is receiving increased attention in policy and business circles. The European Commission (EC) has initiated the Bioeconomy Strategy which is a signal of intent that the EU seeks to meet the challenge of reconciling responsible-resource usage respecting sustainability criteria, with wealth-generation. To this aim, the EC’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) has been entrusted to implement a Bioeconomy Information Systems Observatory (BISO) within which the objective is to develop an ongoing coherent picture of the activities of this sector, whilst developing forward-looking tools of analysis to help respond to the aforementioned challenge. This paper provides an overview of the research activities which are currently under development at the JRC. Whilst the scale of ambition of the BISO is significant, it is recognised that much of the research conducted so-far remains work-in-progress and therefore is only a starting point to fully capturing the nuances of this diverse and complex sector.JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom

What if meat consumption would decrease more than expected in the high-income countries?

Changes in meat consumption patterns could induce significant adjustments in agricultural markets. In this paper alternative scenarios envisaging lower meat consumption over the coming decade in high income countries and some selected emerging economies have been tested, with or without compensation by other sources of proteins. From a European perspective, results show a livestock farming sector having to deal with contradictory market signals. On the one side, the reduction in feedstuffs prices is an incentive to produce more, with lower output prices affecting positively the trade balance with developing countries, where demand keeps increasing. However, on the other side, the lower domestic demand for meat would affect profitability of meat production in the EU. Overall, the European beef meat sector would be the most affected, with some higher demand for dairy products. This possible evolution of European diets is a challenge for European livestock farmers, which will be required to adapt their production mix and rely on the portfolio of policies the CAP offers

What if meat consumption would decrease more than expected in the high-income countries?

Changes in meat consumption patterns could induce significant adjustments in agricultural markets. In this paper alternative scenarios envisaging lower meat consumption over the coming decade in high income countries and some selected emerging economies have been tested, with or without compensation by other sources of proteins. From a European perspective, results show a livestock farming sector having to deal with contradictory market signals. On the one side, the reduction in feedstuffs prices is an incentive to produce more, with lower output prices affecting positively the trade balance with developing countries, where demand keeps increasing. However, on the other side, the lower domestic demand for meat would affect profitability of meat production in the EU. Overall, the European beef meat sector would be the most affected, with some higher demand for dairy products. This possible evolution of European diets is a challenge for European livestock farmers, which will be required to adapt their production mix and rely on the portfolio of policies the CAP offers