Spline-based modelling of trends in the force of HIV infection, with application to the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package

Objective: We previously developed a flexible specification of the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) that relied on splines to generate time-varying values for the force of infection parameter. Here, we test the feasibility of this approach for concentrated HIV/AIDS epidemics with very sparse data and compare two methods for making short-term future projections with the spline-based model. Methods: Penalised B-splines are used to model the average infection risk over time within the EPP 2011 modelling framework, which includes antiretroviral treatment effects and CD4 cell count progression, and is fit to sentinel surveillance prevalence data with a Bayesian algorithm. We compare two approaches for future projections: (1) an informative prior related to equilibrium prevalence and (2) a random walk formulation. Results: The spline-based model produced plausible fits across a range of epidemics, which included 87 subpopulations from 14 countries with concentrated epidemics and 75 subpopulations from 33 countries with generalised epidemics. The equilibrium prior and random walk approaches to future projections yielded similar prevalence estimates, and both performed well in tests of out-of-sample predictive validity for prevalence. In contrast, in some cases the two approaches varied substantially in estimates of incidence, with the random walk formulation avoiding extreme changes in incidence. Conclusions: A spline-based approach to allowing the force of infection parameter to vary over time within EPP 2011 is robust across a diverse array of epidemics, including concentrated ones with limited surveillance data. Future work on the EPP model should consider the impact that different modelling approaches have on estimates of HIV incidence

A directed mutation operator for real coded genetic algorithms

Copyright @ Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010.Developing directed mutation methods has been an interesting research topic to improve the performance of genetic algorithms (GAs) for function optimization. This paper introduces a directed mutation (DM) operator for GAs to explore promising areas in the search space. In this DM method, the statistics information regarding the fitness and distribution of individuals over intervals of each dimension is calculated according to the current population and is used to guide the mutation of an individual toward the neighboring interval that has the best statistics result in each dimension. Experiments are carried out to compare the proposed DM technique with an existing directed variation on a set of benchmark test problems. The experimental results show that the proposed DM operator achieves a better performance than the directed variation on most test problems

Thermocline management of stratified tanks for heat storage

Stratified tanks are useful for maximising the thermal energy efficiency of non-continuous and semi-continuous processes. Liquid at two or more dissimilar temperatures is stored within the same tank to provide a buffer for variations in heating and cooling loads. Control of the thermocline between the hot and cold fluid regions is needed to minimise thermocline growth and maximise operation of the storage tank. An experimental programme using a scale model of an industrial stratified tank (aspect ratio 3.5) and Perspex tank (aspect ratio 8.2) is reported. The behaviour and growth of the hot-cold thermocline under various operating conditions is presented. A siphoning method to re-establish the thermocline without interrupting the use of the tank is tested. Siphoning of the thermocline region from either 20%, 50% or 80% of the tank height is an effective strategy for uninterrupted interface re-establishment. However, the rate and position of siphoning and the load balance of the exit streams are critical variables for minimising the time for effective re-establishment of the two temperature zones