Model-based measurement of latent risk in time series with applications

Risk is at the center of many policy decisions in companies, governments and other institutions. The risk of road fatalities concerns local governments in planning counter- measures, the risk and severity of counterparty default concerns bank risk managers on a daily basis and the risk of infection has actuarial and epidemiological consequences. However, risk can not be observed directly and it usually varies over time. Measuring risk is therefore an important exercise. In this paper we introduce a general multivariate framework for the time series analysis of risk that is modelled as a latent process. The latent risk time series model extends existing approaches by the simultaneous modelling of (i) the exposure to an event, (ii) the risk of that event occurring and (iii) the severity of the event. First, we discuss existing time series approaches for the analysis of risk which have been applied to road safety, actuarial and epidemiological problems. Seco! nd, we present a general model for the analysis of risk and discuss its statistical treatment based on linear state space methods. Third, we apply the methodology to time series of insurance claims, credit card purchases and road safety. It is shown that the general methodology can be effectively used in the assessment of risk

Expectations from a Microlensing Search for Planets

The statistical distribution of the masses of planets about stars between the Sun and the center of the galaxy is constrained to within a factor of three by an intensive search for planets during microlensing events. Projected separations in terms of the lens Einstein ring radius yield a rough estimate of the distribution of planetary semimajor axes with planetary mass. The search consists of following ongoing stellar microlensing events involving sources in the center of the galaxy lensed by intervening stars with high time resolution, 1% photometry in two colors in an attempt to catch any short time scale planetary perturbations of the otherwise smooth light curve. It is assumed that 3000 events are followed over an 8 year period, but with half of the lenses, those that are members of binary systems, devoid of planets. The remaining 1500 lenses have solar-system-like distributions of 4 or 5 planets. The expectations from the microlensing search are extremely assumption dependent with 56, 138, and 81 planets being detected for three sets of assumptions involving how the planetary masses and separations vary with lens mass. The events can be covered from 54% to 62% of the time on average by high time resolution photometry from a system of three or four dedicated two meter telescopes distributed in longitude, so 38% to 46% of the detectable small mass planets (very short perturbations of the light curve) will be missed. But perturbations comparable to a day in length means all of the detectable Jupiters and Saturns will in fact be detected as well as a large fraction of the Uranuses. Although meaningful statistics on planetary masses and separations can be inferred from such an intensive search, they, like the inferred data set, will be dependent on the assumed nature of the systems.Comment: 26 pages, LaTeX, uses aas2pp4.sty, 11 postscript figures, Submitted to Icaru

The mechanism of the Einstellung (set) effect: A pervasive source of cognitive bias

Copyright @ The Authors 2010The eye movements of expert players trying to solve a chess problem show that the first idea that comes to mind directs attention towards sources of information consistent with itself and away from inconsistent information. This bias continues unconsciously even when the player believes he is looking for alternatives. The result is that alternatives to the first idea are ignored. This mechanism for biasing attention ensures a speedy response in familiar situations but it can lead to errors when the first thought that comes to mind is not appropriate. We propose that this mechanism is the source of many cognitive biases from phenomena in problem solving and reasoning, to perceptual errors and failures in memory

Punctuated equilibria and 1/f noise in a biological coevolution model with individual-based dynamics

We present a study by linear stability analysis and large-scale Monte Carlo simulations of a simple model of biological coevolution. Selection is provided through a reproduction probability that contains quenched, random interspecies interactions, while genetic variation is provided through a low mutation rate. Both selection and mutation act on individual organisms. Consistent with some current theories of macroevolutionary dynamics, the model displays intermittent, statistically self-similar behavior with punctuated equilibria. The probability density for the lifetimes of ecological communities is well approximated by a power law with exponent near -2, and the corresponding power spectral densities show 1/f noise (flicker noise) over several decades. The long-lived communities (quasi-steady states) consist of a relatively small number of mutualistically interacting species, and they are surrounded by a ``protection zone'' of closely related genotypes that have a very low probability of invading the resident community. The extent of the protection zone affects the stability of the community in a way analogous to the height of the free-energy barrier surrounding a metastable state in a physical system. Measures of biological diversity are on average stationary with no discernible trends, even over our very long simulation runs of approximately 3.4x10^7 generations.Comment: 20 pages RevTex. Minor revisions consistent with published versio

Misdiagnosed and misunderstood’: Insights into rarer forms of dementia through a stepwise approach to co-constructed research poetry

This study investigated co-constructed research poetry as a way to understand the lived experiences of people affected by rarer dementia and as a means to use poetry to convey those experiences to healthcare professionals. Using mixed methods, 71 people living with rarer dementia and care-partners (stakeholders) contributed to co-constructing 27 poems with professional poets; stakeholders’ verbatim words were analysed with descriptive qualitative analysis. Stakeholders were also surveyed and interviewed about their participation. Healthcare professionals (n = 93) were surveyed to elicit their responses to learning through poetry and its acceptability as a learning tool. Poems conveyed a shared narrative of different aspects of lived experience, often owing to atypical symptoms, misunderstandings by professionals, lack of support pathways, and a continuous struggle to adapt. Stakeholder surveys indicated it was a valuable experience to both co-create and respond to the poems, whilst group interviews revealed people’s experiences of the research poetry were characterised by reflection on lived experience, curiosity and exploration. Healthcare professionals’ responses reinforced poetry’s capacity to stimulate cognitive and affective learning specific to rare dementia support and prompt both empathy and critical thinking in practice. As the largest poetry-based study that we are aware of, this novel accessible approach of creating group poems yielded substantial information about the experiences and needs of those affected by rarer dementia and how poetry can contribute to healthcare education and training

Culture, Embodiment and Genes: Unravelling the Triple Helix

Much recent work stresses the role of embodiment and action in thought and reason, and celebrates the power of transmitted cultural and environmental structures to transform the problem-solving activity required of individual brains. By apparent contrast, much work in evolutionary psychology has stressed the selective fit of the biological brain to an ancestral environment of evolutionary adaptedness, with an attendant stress upon the limitations and cognitive biases that result. On the face of it, this suggests either a tension or, at least, a mismatch, with the symbiotic dyad of cultural evolution and embodied cognition. In what follows, we explore this mismatch by focusing on three key ideas: cognitive niche construction; cognitive modularity; and the existence (or otherwise) of an evolved universal human nature. An appreciation of the power and scope of the first, combined with consequently more nuanced visions of the latter two, allow us to begin to glimpse a much richer vision of the combined interactive potency of biological and cultural evolution for active, embodied agents

Correlation energies of inhomogeneous many-electron systems

We generalize the uniform-gas correlation energy formalism of Singwi, Tosi, Land and Sjolander to the case of an arbitrary inhomogeneous many-particle system. For jellium slabs of finite thickness with a self-consistent LDA groundstate Kohn-Sham potential as input, our numerical results for the correlation energy agree well with diffusion Monte Carlo results. For a helium atom we also obtain a good correlation energy.Comment: 4 pages,1 figur

A rapid staining technique for the detection of the initiation of germination of bacterial spores

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/75645/1/j.1472-765x.2002.01047.x.pd

Prognostic implications of residual disease tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes and residual cancer burden in triple-negative breast cancer patients after neoadjuvant chemotherapy

Abstract Background For primary triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC), higher pretreatment tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) correlates with increased pathologic complete response (pCR) rates, and improved survival. We evaluated the added prognostic value of residual disease (RD) TILs to residual cancer burden (RCB) in predicting survival post-NAC. Patients and methods We combined four TNBC NAC patient cohorts who did not achieve pCR. RD TILs were investigated for associations with recurrence-free survival (RFS), and overall survival (OS) using Cox models with stromal TILs as a continuous variable (per 10% increment). The likelihood ratio test was used to evaluate added prognostic value of RD TILs. Results A total of 375 RD TNBC samples were evaluable for TILs and RCB. The median age was 50 years, with 62% receiving anthracycline/taxane chemotherapy. The RCB class after NAC was 11%, 50%, and 39% for I, II, and III, respectively. The median RD TIL level was 20% (IQR 10–40). There was a positive correlation between RD TIL levels and CD8+ T-cell density (ρ = 0.41). TIL levels were significantly lower with increasing post-NAC tumor (P = 0.005), nodal stage (P = 0.032), but did not differ by RCB class (P = 0.84). Higher RD TILs were significantly associated with improved RFS (HR: 0.86; 95% CI 0.79–0.92; P  Conclusions TIL levels in TNBC RD are significantly associated with improved RFS and OS and add further prognostic information to RCB class, particularly in RCB class II