Regional Planning, Environmental Management, and Modeling in the Kinki Region of Japan: A Case Study

The purpose of this study is to describe and assess the present policy making on long term regional development plans and environmental management systems in the Kinki area of Japan as a typical example of a highly developed industrialized region with a full range of environmental problems. The study follows an analytical framework developed at IIASA in the course of case studies of large scale development programs. Three aspects of regional policy making are examined: comprehensive development plans, environmental management, and the role of models and computer applications in regional planning and management. Emphasis was put on attempts to integrate interprefectural and national-prefectural planning and decision making. Organizational interlinkages, comprehensive plans, and joint budgets are seen as the main mechanisms for such integration. The study findings indicate that while the national-prefectural integration seems to work well with a clear separation of functions, multiple interrelations of organizations, and a strong centrally controlled budget, the interprefectural integration lags behind. In spite of many common problems in the Kinki area there exists no policy formation body acting from within the region, and joint plans, models, or shared budgets are more an exception than the rule

Magnetic order in the quasi-two-dimensional easy-plane XXZ model

A Green's-function theory of antiferromagnetic short-range and long-range order (LRO) in the $S=1/2$ quasi-two-dimensional easy-plane XXZ model is presented. As the main new result, {\it two} phase transitions due to the combined influence of spatial and spin anisotropy are found, where below the higher and lower N\'{e}el temperature there occurs LRO in the transverse and in both the transverse and longitudinal spin correlators, respectively. Comparing the theory with neutron-scattering data for the correlation length of $\rm La_2CuO_4$, a very good agreement in the whole temperature dependence is obtained. Moreover, for $\rm La_2CuO_4$, $\rm Sr_2CuO_2Cl_2$, and $\rm Ca_{0.85}Sr_{0.15}CuO_2$ the second phase with longitudinal LRO is predicted to appear far below room temperature.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figure

Assessing the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of subcutaneous nerve stimulation in patients with predominant back pain due to failed back surgery syndrome (SubQStim study): study protocol for a multicenter randomized controlled trial

This is a freely-available open access publication. Please cite the published version which is available via the DOI link in this record.Chronic radicular pain can be effectively treated with spinal cord stimulation, but this therapy is not always sufficient for chronic back pain. Subcutaneous nerve stimulation (SQS) refers to the placement of percutaneous leads in the subcutaneous tissue within the area of pain. Case series data show that failed back surgery syndrome (FBSS) patients experience clinically important levels of pain relief following SQS and may also reduce their levels of analgesic therapy and experience functional well-being. However, to date, there is no randomized controlled trial evidence to support the use of SQS in FBSS.Medtronic Inc

Assessing the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of subcutaneous nerve stimulation in patients with predominant back pain due to failed back surgery syndrome (SubQStim study): study protocol for a multicenter randomized controlled trial

Background: Chronic radicular pain can be effectively treated with spinal cord stimulation, but this therapy is not always sufficient for chronic back pain. Subcutaneous nerve stimulation (SQS) refers to the placement of percutaneous leads in the subcutaneous tissue within the area of pain. Case series data show that failed back surgery syndrome (FBSS) patients experience clinically important levels of pain relief following SQS and may also reduce their levels of analgesic therapy and experience functional well-being. However, to date, there is no randomized controlled trial evidence to support the use of SQS in FBSS. Methods/Design: The SubQStim study is a multicenter randomized controlled trial comparing SQS plus optimized medical management (‘SQS arm’) versus optimized medical management alone (‘OMM arm’) in patients with predominant back pain due to FBSS. Up to 400 patients will be recruited from approximately 33 centers in Europe and Australia and will be randomized 1:1 to the SQS or OMM arms. After 9 months, patients who fail to reach the primary outcome will be allowed to switch treatments. Patients will be evaluated at baseline (prior to randomization) and at 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, 24, and 36 months after randomization. The primary outcome is the proportion of patients at 9 months with a ≥50% reduction in back pain intensity compared to baseline. The secondary outcomes are: back and leg pain intensity score, functional disability, health-related quality of life, patient satisfaction, patient global impression of change, healthcare resource utilization/costs, cost-effectiveness analysis and adverse events. Outcomes arms will be compared between SQS and OMM arms at all evaluation points up to and including 9 months. After the 9-month assessment visit, the main analytic focus will be to compare within patient changes in outcomes relative to baseline. Discussion: The SubQStim trial began patient recruitment in November 2012. Recruitment is expected to close in late 2014

Assessing and Improving the Local Added Value of WRF for Wind Downscaling

Limited area models (LAMs) are widely used tools to downscale the wind speed forecasts issued by general circulation models. However, only a few studies have systematically analyzed the value added by the LAMs to the coarser-resolution-model wind. The goal of the present work is to investigate how added value depends on the resolution of the driving global model. With this aim, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model was used to downscale three different global datasets (GFS, ERA-Interim, and NCEP?NCAR) to a 9-km-resolution grid for a 1-yr period. Model results were compared with a large set of surface observations, including land station and offshore buoy data. Substantial biases were found at this resolution over mountainous terrain, and a slight modification to the subgrid orographic drag parameterization was introduced to alleviate the problem. It was found that, at this resolution, WRF is able to produce significant added value with respect to the NCEP?NCAR reanalysis and ERA-Interim but only a small amount of added value with respect to GFS forecasts. Results suggest that, as model resolution increases, traditional skill scores tend to saturate. Thus, adding value to high-resolution global models becomes significantly more difficult.The authors thank Puertos del Estado (Spanish National Ports and Harbour Authority) and AEMET (Spanish Meteorological Agency) for providing buoy and land observational records. This work was partly supported by the projects EXTREMBLES (CGL2010-21869) and CORWES (GL2010-22158-C02-01), funded by the Spanish R&D program. The WRF simulations performed in this study were managed by WRF4G, which is an open-source tool funded by the Spanish government and cofunded by the European Regional Development Fund under Grant CGL2011-28864

Security in the Age of Systemic Risk: Strategies, Tactics and Options for Dealing with Femtorisks and Beyond

The world today is increasingly confronted with systemic threats and challenges, in which femtorisks - small-scale dangers that are inherent to system structures and function and which pose asymmetrically catastrophic risks - can build in consequence, spreading uncontrollably like epidemics in both natural and social systems in such diverse areas as ecology, epidemiology, finance, the Internet, terrorism, and international relations. They have been successfully modeled in ecology in the context of complex adaptive systems: systems made up of individual agents, whose interactions have macroscopic consequences that feed back to influence individual behavior. While acknowledging challenges, this paper argues for the value of applying to societal systems the approaches that natural scientists have developed in quantifying and modeling biological interactions and ecosystems

Neutron Scattering study of Sr_2Cu_3O_4Cl_2

We report a neutron scattering study on the tetragonal compound Sr_2Cu_3O_4Cl_2, which has two-dimensional (2D) interpenetrating Cu_I and Cu_{II} subsystems, each forming a S=1/2 square lattice quantum Heisenberg antiferromagnet (SLQHA). The mean-field ground state is degenerate, since the inter-subsystem interactions are geometrically frustrated. Magnetic neutron scattering experiments show that quantum fluctuations lift the degeneracy and cause a 2D Ising ordering of the Cu_{II} subsystem. Due to quantum fluctuations a dramatic increase of the Cu_I out-of-plane spin-wave gap is also observed. The temperature dependence and the dispersion of the spin-wave energy are quantitatively explained by spin-wave calculations which include quantum fluctuations explicitly. The values for the nearest-neighbor superexchange interactions between the Cu_I and Cu_{II} ions and between the Cu_{II} ions are determined experimentally to be J_{I-II} = -10(2)meV and J_{II}= 10.5(5)meV, respectively. Due to its small exchange interaction, J_{II}, the 2D dispersion of the Cu_{II} SLQHA can be measured over the whole Brillouin zone with thermal neutrons, and a novel dispersion at the zone boundary, predicted by theory, is confirmed. The instantaneous magnetic correlation length of the Cu_{II} SLQHA is obtained up to a very high temperature, T/J_{II}\approx 0.75. This result is compared with several theoretical predictions as well as recent experiments on the S=1/2 SLQHA.Comment: Figures and equations are rearrange

Behavioral challenges in policy analysis with conflicting objectives

Public policy problems are rife with conflicting objectives: efficiency versus fairness, technical criteria versus political goals, costs versus multiple benefits. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis provides robust methodologies to support policy makers in making tough choices and in designing better policy options when considering these conflicting objectives. However, important behavioral challenges exist in developing these models: the use of expert judgments, whenever evidence is not available; the elicitation of preferences and priorities from policy makers and communities; and the effective management of group decision processes. The extensive developments in behavioral decision research, social psychology, facilitated decision modeling, and incomplete preference models shed light on how decision analysts should address these issues, so we can provide better decision support and develop high quality decision models. In this tutorial I discuss the main findings of these extensive, but rather fragmented, literatures providing a coherent and practical framework for managing behavioral issues, minimizing behavioral biases, and optimizing the quality of human judgments in policy analysis models with conflicting objectives. I illustrate these guidelines with policy analysis interventions that we have conducted over the last decade for several organizations, such as the World Health Organization (WHO), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the UK Department of Environment Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), the Malaria Consortium/USAID, the UK National Audit Office, among others