1,343 research outputs found

    Treatment-seeking rates in malaria endemic countries

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    BACKGROUND: The proportion of individuals who seek treatment for fever is an important quantity in understanding access to and use of health systems, as well as for interpreting data on disease incidence from routine surveillance systems. For many malaria endemic countries (MECs), treatment-seeking information is available from national household surveys. The aim of this paper was to assemble sub-national estimates of treatment-seeking behaviours and to predict national treatment-seeking measures for all MECs lacking household survey data. METHODS: Data on treatment seeking for fever were obtained from Demographic and Health Surveys, Malaria Indicator Surveys and Multiple Cluster Indicator Surveys for every MEC and year that data were available. National-level social, economic and health-related variables were gathered from the World Bank as putative covariates of treatment-seeking rates. A generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) was used to estimate treatment-seeking behaviours for countries where survey data were unavailable. Two separate models were developed to predict the proportion of fever cases that would seek treatment at (1) a public health facility or (2) from any kind of treatment provider. RESULTS: Treatment-seeking data were available for 74 MECs and modelled for the remaining 24. GAMMs found that the percentage of pregnant women receiving prenatal care, vaccination rates, education level, government health expenditure, and GDP growth were important predictors for both categories of treatment-seeking outcomes. Treatment-seeking rates, which varied both within and among regions, revealed that public facilities were not always the primary facility type used. CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of treatment-seeking rates show how health services are utilized and help correct reported malaria case numbers to obtain more accurate measures of disease burden. The assembled and modelled data demonstrated that while treatment-seeking rates have overall increased over time, access remains low in some malaria endemic regions and utilization of government services is in some areas limited

    Improved prediction accuracy for disease risk mapping using Gaussian process stacked generalization.

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    Maps of infectious disease-charting spatial variations in the force of infection, degree of endemicity and the burden on human health-provide an essential evidence base to support planning towards global health targets. Contemporary disease mapping efforts have embraced statistical modelling approaches to properly acknowledge uncertainties in both the available measurements and their spatial interpolation. The most common such approach is Gaussian process regression, a mathematical framework composed of two components: a mean function harnessing the predictive power of multiple independent variables, and a covariance function yielding spatio-temporal shrinkage against residual variation from the mean. Though many techniques have been developed to improve the flexibility and fitting of the covariance function, models for the mean function have typically been restricted to simple linear terms. For infectious diseases, known to be driven by complex interactions between environmental and socio-economic factors, improved modelling of the mean function can greatly boost predictive power. Here, we present an ensemble approach based on stacked generalization that allows for multiple nonlinear algorithmic mean functions to be jointly embedded within the Gaussian process framework. We apply this method to mapping Plasmodium falciparum prevalence data in sub-Saharan Africa and show that the generalized ensemble approach markedly outperforms any individual method

    Refining the Global Spatial Limits of Dengue Virus Transmission by Evidence-Based Consensus

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    Background: Dengue is a growing problem both in its geographical spread and in its intensity, and yet current global distribution remains highly uncertain. Challenges in diagnosis and diagnostic methods as well as highly variable national health systems mean no single data source can reliably estimate the distribution of this disease. As such, there is a lack of agreement on national dengue status among international health organisations. Here we bring together all available information on dengue occurrence using a novel approach to produce an evidence consensus map of the disease range that highlights nations with an uncertain dengue status. Methods/Principle Findings: A baseline methodology was used to assess a range of evidence for each country. In regions where dengue status was uncertain, additional evidence types were included to either clarify dengue status or confirm that it is unknown at this time. An algorithm was developed that assesses evidence quality and consistency, giving each country an evidence consensus score. Using this approach, we were able to generate a contemporary global map of national-level dengue status that assigns a relative measure of certainty and identifies gaps in the available evidence

    Extracellular cell stress (heat shock) proteins - immune responses and disease: an overview

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    Extracellular cell stress proteins are highly conserved phylogenetically and have been shown to act as powerful signalling agonists and receptors for selected ligands in several different settings. They also act as immunostimulatory ‘danger signals’ for the innate and adaptive immune systems. Other studies have shown that cell stress proteins and the induction of immune reactivity to self-cell stress proteins can attenuate disease processes. Some proteins (e.g. Hsp60, Hsp70, gp96) exhibit both inflammatory and anti-inflammatory properties, depending on the context in which they encounter responding immune cells. The burgeoning literature reporting the presence of stress proteins in a range of biological fluids in healthy individuals/non-diseased settings, the association of extracellular stress protein levels with a plethora of clinical and pathological conditions and the selective expression of a membrane form of Hsp70 on cancer cells now supports the concept that extracellular cell stress proteins are involved in maintaining/regulating organismal homeostasis and in disease processes and phenotype. Cell stress proteins, therefore, form a biologically complex extracellular cell stress protein network having diverse biological, homeostatic and immunomodulatory properties, the understanding of which offers exciting opportunities for delivering novel approaches to predict, identify, diagnose, manage and treat disease

    Disorder and Sorption Preferences in a Highly Stable Fluoride- Containing Rare-Earth fcu-Type Metal−Organic Framework

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    Rare-earth (RE) metal−organic frameworks (MOFs) synthesized in the presence of fluorine-donating modulators or linkers are an important new subset of functional MOFs. However, the exact nature of the REaXb core of the molecular building block (MBB) of the MOF, where X is a μ2 or 3-bridging group, remains unclear. Investigation of one of the archetypal members of this family with the stable fcu framework topology, Y-fum-fcu-MOF (1), using a combination of experimental techniques, including high-field (20 T) solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, has determined two sources of framework disorder involving the μ3-X face-capping group of the MBB and the fumarate (fum) linker. The core of the MBB of 1 is shown to contain a mixture of μ3-F− and (OH)− groups with preferential occupation at the crystallographically different facecapping sites that result in different internally lined framework tetrahedral cages. The fum linker is also found to display a disordered arrangement involving bridging− or chelating−bridging bis-bidentate modes over the fum linker positions without influencing the MBB orientation. This linker disorder will, upon activation, result in the creation of Y3+ ions with potentially one or two additional uncoordinated sites possessing differing degrees of Lewis acidity. Crystallographically determined host−guest relationships for simple sorbates demonstrate the favored sorption sites for N2, CO2, and CS2 molecules that reflect the chemical nature of both the framework and the sorbate species with the structural partitioning of the μ3-groups apparent in determining the favored sorption site of CS2. The two types of disorder found within 1 demonstrate the complexity of fluoride-containing RE-MOFs and highlight the possibility to tune this and other frameworks to contain different proportions and segregations of μ3-face-capping groups and degrees of linker disorder for specifically tailored applications.EPSRC and the University of Manchester for the award of a DTG PhD studentship (EPSRC EP/R513131/1) and funding the dual source Rigaku FR-X diffractometer (EPSRC EP/P001386/1)Henry Royce Institute, funded through EPSRC grants EP/R00661X/1, EP/P025021/1, and EP/P025498/1EPSRC and BBSRC (EP/T015063/1)University of WarwickBirmingham Science City Advanced Materials Projects 1 and 2 supported by Advantage West Midlands (AWM) and the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF

    Going beyond personal protection against mosquito bites to eliminate malaria transmission: population suppression of malaria vectors that exploit both human and animal blood

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    Protecting individuals and households against mosquito bites with long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) or indoor residual spraying (IRS) can suppress entire populations of unusually efficient malaria vector species that predominantly feed indoors on humans. Mosquitoes which usually feed on animals are less reliant on human blood, so they are far less vulnerable to population suppression effects of such human-targeted insecticidal measures. Fortunately, the dozens of mosquito species which primarily feed on animals are also relatively inefficient vectors of malaria, so personal protection against mosquito bites may be sufficient to eliminate transmission. However, a handful of mosquito species are particularly problematic vectors of residual malaria transmission, because they feed readily on both humans and animals. These unusual vectors feed often enough on humans to be potent malaria vectors, but also often enough on animals to evade population control with LLINs, IRS or any other insecticidal personal protection measure targeted only to humans. Anopheles arabiensis and A. coluzzii in Africa, A. darlingi in South America and A. farauti in Oceania, as well as A. culicifacies species E, A. fluviatilis species S, A. lesteri and A. minimus in Asia, all feed readily on either humans or animals and collectively mediate residual malaria transmission across most of the tropics. Eliminating malaria transmission by vectors exhibiting such dual host preferences will require aggressive mosquito population abatement, rather than just personal protection of humans. Population suppression of even these particularly troublesome vectors is achievable with a variety of existing vector control technologies that remain underdeveloped or underexploited

    Access to Artemisinin-Based Anti-Malarial Treatment and its Related Factors in Rural Tanzania.

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    Artemisinin-based combination treatment (ACT) has been widely adopted as one of the main malaria control strategies. However, its promise to save thousands of lives in sub-Saharan Africa depends on how effective the use of ACT is within the routine health system. The INESS platform evaluated effective coverage of ACT in several African countries. Timely access within 24 hours to an authorized ACT outlet is one of the determinants of effective coverage and was assessed for artemether-lumefantrine (Alu), in two district health systems in rural Tanzania. From October 2009 to June 2011we conducted continuous rolling household surveys in the Kilombero-Ulanga and the Rufiji Health and Demographic Surveillance Sites (HDSS). Surveys were linked to the routine HDSS update rounds. Members of randomly pre-selected households that had experienced a fever episode in the previous two weeks were eligible for a structured interview. Data on individual treatment seeking, access to treatment, timing, source of treatment and household costs per episode were collected. Data are presented on timely access from a total of 2,112 interviews in relation to demographics, seasonality, and socio economic status. In Kilombero-Ulanga, 41.8% (CI: 36.6-45.1) and in Rufiji 36.8% (33.7-40.1) of fever cases had access to an authorized ACT provider within 24 hours of fever onset. In neither of the HDSS site was age, sex, socio-economic status or seasonality of malaria found to be significantly correlated with timely access. Timely access to authorized ACT providers is below 50% despite interventions intended to improve access such as social marketing and accreditation of private dispensing outlets. To improve prompt diagnosis and treatment, access remains a major bottle neck and new more innovative interventions are needed to raise effective coverage of malaria treatment in Tanzania

    Refining the global spatial limits of dengue virus transmission by evidence-based consensus.

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    BACKGROUND: Dengue is a growing problem both in its geographical spread and in its intensity, and yet current global distribution remains highly uncertain. Challenges in diagnosis and diagnostic methods as well as highly variable national health systems mean no single data source can reliably estimate the distribution of this disease. As such, there is a lack of agreement on national dengue status among international health organisations. Here we bring together all available information on dengue occurrence using a novel approach to produce an evidence consensus map of the disease range that highlights nations with an uncertain dengue status. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A baseline methodology was used to assess a range of evidence for each country. In regions where dengue status was uncertain, additional evidence types were included to either clarify dengue status or confirm that it is unknown at this time. An algorithm was developed that assesses evidence quality and consistency, giving each country an evidence consensus score. Using this approach, we were able to generate a contemporary global map of national-level dengue status that assigns a relative measure of certainty and identifies gaps in the available evidence. CONCLUSION: The map produced here provides a list of 128 countries for which there is good evidence of dengue occurrence, including 36 countries that have previously been classified as dengue-free by the World Health Organization and/or the US Centers for Disease Control. It also identifies disease surveillance needs, which we list in full. The disease extents and limits determined here using evidence consensus, marks the beginning of a five-year study to advance the mapping of dengue virus transmission and disease risk. Completion of this first step has allowed us to produce a preliminary estimate of population at risk with an upper bound of 3.97 billion people. This figure will be refined in future work

    Global mapping of infectious disease

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    The primary aim of this review was to evaluate the state of knowledge of the geographical distribution of all infectious diseases of clinical significance to humans. A systematic review was conducted to enumerate cartographic progress, with respect to the data available for mapping and the methods currently applied. The results helped define the minimum information requirements for mapping infectious disease occurrence, and a quantitative framework for assessing the mapping opportunities for all infectious diseases. This revealed that of 355 infectious diseases identified, 174 (49%) have a strong rationale for mapping and of these only 7 (4%) had been comprehensively mapped. A variety of ambitions, such as the quantification of the global burden of infectious disease, international biosurveillance, assessing the likelihood of infectious disease outbreaks and exploring the propensity for infectious disease evolution and emergence, are limited by these omissions. An overview of the factors hindering progress in disease cartography is provided. It is argued that rapid improvement in the landscape of infectious diseases mapping can be made by embracing non-conventional data sources, automation of geo-positioning and mapping procedures enabled by machine learning and information technology, respectively, in addition to harnessing labour of the volunteer ‘cognitive surplus’ through crowdsourcing
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