Scaling in Tournaments

We study a stochastic process that mimics single-game elimination tournaments. In our model, the outcome of each match is stochastic: the weaker player wins with upset probability q<=1/2, and the stronger player wins with probability 1-q. The loser is eliminated. Extremal statistics of the initial distribution of player strengths governs the tournament outcome. For a uniform initial distribution of strengths, the rank of the winner, x_*, decays algebraically with the number of players, N, as x_* ~ N^(-beta). Different decay exponents are found analytically for sequential dynamics, beta_seq=1-2q, and parallel dynamics, beta_par=1+[ln (1-q)]/[ln 2]. The distribution of player strengths becomes self-similar in the long time limit with an algebraic tail. Our theory successfully describes statistics of the US college basketball national championship tournament.Comment: 5 pages, 1 figure, empirical study adde

On The Structure of Competitive Societies

We model the dynamics of social structure by a simple interacting particle system. The social standing of an individual agent is represented by an integer-valued fitness that changes via two offsetting processes. When two agents interact one advances: the fitter with probability p and the less fit with probability 1-p. The fitness of an agent may also decline with rate r. From a scaling analysis of the underlying master equations for the fitness distribution of the population, we find four distinct social structures as a function of the governing parameters p and r. These include: (i) a static lower-class society where all agents have finite fitness; (ii) an upwardly-mobile middle-class society; (iii) a hierarchical society where a finite fraction of the population belongs to a middle class and a complementary fraction to the lower class; (iv) an egalitarian society where all agents are upwardly mobile and have nearly the same fitness. We determine the basic features of the fitness distributions in these four phases.Comment: 8 pages, 7 figure

Randomness in Competitions

We study the effects of randomness on competitions based on an elementary random process in which there is a finite probability that a weaker team upsets a stronger team. We apply this model to sports leagues and sports tournaments, and compare the theoretical results with empirical data. Our model shows that single-elimination tournaments are efficient but unfair: the number of games is proportional to the number of teams N, but the probability that the weakest team wins decays only algebraically with N. In contrast, leagues, where every team plays every other team, are fair but inefficient: the top $\sqrt{N}$ of teams remain in contention for the championship, while the probability that the weakest team becomes champion is exponentially small. We also propose a gradual elimination schedule that consists of a preliminary round and a championship round. Initially, teams play a small number of preliminary games, and subsequently, a few teams qualify for the championship round. This algorithm is fair and efficient: the best team wins with a high probability and the number of games scales as $N^{9/5}$, whereas traditional leagues require N^3 games to fairly determine a champion.Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures, reviews arXiv:physics/0512144, arXiv:physics/0608007, arXiv:cond-mat/0607694, arXiv:physics/061221

Ricci Solitons on Lorentzian Manifolds with Large Isometry Groups

We show that Lorentzian manifolds whose isometry group is of dimension at least $\frac{1}{2}n(n-1)+1$ are expanding, steady and shrinking Ricci solitons and steady gradient Ricci solitons. This provides examples of complete locally conformally flat and symmetric Lorentzian Ricci solitons which are not rigid

Stanilov-Tsankov-Videv Theory

We survey some recent results concerning Stanilov-Tsankov-Videv theory, conformal Osserman geometry, and Walker geometry which relate algebraic properties of the curvature operator to the underlying geometry of the manifold.Comment: This is a contribution to the Proceedings of the 2007 Midwest Geometry Conference in honor of Thomas P. Branson, published in SIGMA (Symmetry, Integrability and Geometry: Methods and Applications) at http://www.emis.de/journals/SIGMA