Intolerance of uncertainty and mental wellbeing: serial mediation by rumination and fear of COVID-19

The novel coronavirus-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has become globally widespread with millions of confirmed cases and many countries implementing various levels of quarantine. Therefore, it is important to investigate the psychological consequences of this process, given the unique situation that has been experienced globally. Therefore, the present study examined whether intolerance of uncertainty was related to mental wellbeing and whether this relationship was mediated by rumination and fear of COVID-19. The sample comprised 1772 Turkish individuals (aged between 18 and 73 years) from 79 of 81 cities in Turkey, who completed measures of mental wellbeing, intolerance of uncertainty, rumination, and fear of COVID-19. Results of serial mediation analyses showed that intolerance of uncertainty had a significant direct effect on mental wellbeing. Rumination and fear of COVID-19, in combination, serially mediated the association between intolerance of uncertainty and mental wellbeing. The findings are discussed within the framework of the psychological consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and related literature

Identification of a core-periphery structure among participants of a business climate survey

Processes of social opinion formation might be dominated by a set of closely connected agents who constitute the cohesive ‘core’ of a network and have a higher influence on the overall outcome of the process than those agents in the more sparsely connected ‘periphery’. Here we explore whether such a perspective could shed light on the dynamics of a well known economic sentiment index. To this end, we hypothesize that the respondents of the survey under investigation form a core-periphery network, and we identify those agents that define the core (in a discrete setting) or the proximity of each agent to the core (in a continuous setting). As it turns out, there is significant correlation between the so identified cores of different survey questions. Both the discrete and the continuous cores allow an almost perfect replication of the original series with a reduced data set of core members or weighted entries according to core proximity. Using a monthly time series on industrial production in Germany, we also compared experts’ predictions with the real economic development. The core members identified in the discrete setting showed significantly better prediction capabilities than those agents assigned to the periphery of the network