Antioxidant vitamin intakes assessed using a food-frequency questionnaire: correlation with biochemical status in smokers and non-smokers

The increasing interest in the possible role of antioxidant vitamins in many disease states means that methods of assessing vitamin intakes which are suitable for large-scale investigations are now required. The suitability of the food-frequency questionnaire, which was developed by the Medical Research Council - Cardiff Group, for determining dietary intake of antioxidant vitamins in epidemiological studies was investigated in 196 Scottish men. The validity of the dietary data was assessed by comparison with serum vitamin concentrations, and separate analyses were performed for current smokers and non-smokers. The results showed that total energy intake and the percentage of energy derived from sugar were higher in smokers, and that both dietary and serum values of vitamin C, β-carotene and vitamin E were lower in smokers than non-smokers. After adjustment for serum lipids, energy intake and body mass index, correlation coefficients between dietary and serum vitamins C and E were similar for smokers (r 0.555 and 0.25 respectively) and non-smokers (r 0.58 and 0.32 respectively). Correlation between dietary and serum carotenes was reduced from 0.28 in non-smokers to 0.09 in smokers and correlations for retinol and total vitamin A were weakly significant only for non-smokers. The food-frequency questionnaire assigned > 70% of subjects correctly into the upper or lower plus adjacent tertiles of serum vitamin values, with the exception of β-carotene and total vitamin A for smokers. Thus, the food-frequency questionnaire appeared to be an adequate tool for assigning individuals into tertiles of serum antioxidant vitamins with the main exception of β-carotene for smokers. Marked differences do occur between the vitamins and between the smoking groups which may reflect reduced accuracy of reporting on the food-frequency questionnaire or differential absorption and metabolism of the vitamin

N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and the prediction of primary cardiovascular events: results from 15-year follow-up of WOSCOPS

<b>Aims:</b>To test whether N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) was independently associated with, and improved the prediction of, cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a primary prevention cohort. <b>Methods and results:</b> In the West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study (WOSCOPS), a cohort of middle-aged men with hypercholesterolaemia at a moderate risk of CVD, we related the baseline NT-proBNP (geometric mean 28 pg/mL) in 4801 men to the risk of CVD over 15 years during which 1690 experienced CVD events. Taking into account the competing risk of non-CVD death, NT-proBNP was associated with an increased risk of all CVD [HR: 1.17 (95% CI: 1.11–1.23) per standard deviation increase in log NT-proBNP] after adjustment for classical and clinical cardiovascular risk factors plus C-reactive protein. N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide was more strongly related to the risk of fatal [HR: 1.34 (95% CI: 1.19–1.52)] than non-fatal CVD [HR: 1.17 (95% CI: 1.10–1.24)] (P= 0.022). The addition of NT-proBNP to traditional risk factors improved the C-index (+0.013; P < 0.001). The continuous net reclassification index improved with the addition of NT-proBNP by 19.8% (95% CI: 13.6–25.9%) compared with 9.8% (95% CI: 4.2–15.6%) with the addition of C-reactive protein. N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide correctly reclassified 14.7% of events, whereas C-reactive protein correctly reclassified 3.4% of events. Results were similar in the 4128 men without evidence of angina, nitrate prescription, minor ECG abnormalities, or prior cerebrovascular disease. <b>Conclusion:</b> N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide predicts CVD events in men without clinical evidence of CHD, angina, or history of stroke, and appears related more strongly to the risk for fatal events. N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide also provides moderate risk discrimination, in excess of that provided by the measurement of C-reactive protein

A cardiovascular disease policy model:part 2-preparing for economic evaluation and to assess health inequalities

Objectives This is the second of two papers introducing a cardiovascular disease (CVD) policy model. The first paper described the structure and statistical underpinning of the state transition model, demonstrating how life expectancy estimates are generated for individuals defined by ASSIGN risk factors. This second paper describes how the model is prepared to undertake economic evaluation. Design To generate quality adjusted life expectancy (QALE), the Scottish Health Survey was used to estimate background morbidity (health utilities) and the impact of CVD events (utility decrements). The SF-6D algorithm generated utilities and decrements were modelled using ordinary least squares (OLS). To generate lifetime hospital costs the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort (SHHEC) was linked to the Scottish morbidity and death records (SMR) to cost each Continuous Inpatient Stay (CIS). OLS and restricted cubic splines estimated annual costs before and after each of the first four events. A Kaplan Meier Sample Average (KMSA) estimator was then used to weight expected health related quality of life and costs by the probability of survival. Results The policy model predicts the change in QALE and lifetime hospital costs as a result of an intervention(s) modifying risk factors. Cost effectiveness analysis and a full uncertainty analysis can be undertaken, including probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Notably, the impacts according to socioeconomic deprivation status can be made. Conclusions The policy model can conduct cost effectiveness analysis and decision analysis to inform approaches to primary prevention, including individually targeted and population interventions, and to assess impacts on health inequalities. </p

Risk Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease in Type 2 Diabetes: A risk equation from the Swedish National Diabetes Register

OBJECTIVE—Risk prediction models obtained in samples from the general population do not perform well in type 2 diabetic patients. Recently, 5-year risk estimates were proposed as being more accurate than 10-year risk estimates. This study presents a diabetes-specific equation for estimation of the absolute 5-year risk of first incident fatal/nonfatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) in type 2 diabetic patients with use of A1C and clinical characteristics

Stroke risk estimation across nine European countries in the MORGAM project.

Previous tools for stroke risk assessment have either been developed for specific populations or lack data on non-fatal events or uniform data collection. The purpose of this study was to develop a stepwise model for the estimation of 10 year risk of stroke in nine different countries across Europe.Using data from the MOnica Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph (MORGAM) Project, sex-specific models estimating 10 year risk of stroke were developed using a Cox regression model stratified by country and including modelling of competing risks. Models were developed in a stepwise manner first using only data from questionnaires, and then adding data from physical examinations and finally data from blood samples.During 1,176,296 years of observation, 2928 incident fatal and non-fatal events of stroke were registered. The developed model showed good calibration and accuracy of prediction. The discrimination of the model varied between sex and country but increased with increasing number of variables used (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve between 0.77 and 0.79 in men and between 0.75 and 0.80 in women).The present study shows that using a large multicountry cohort from nine European countries it is possible to develop a stepwise risk estimation model for 10 year risk of stroke tailored to different availability of risk factors and still obtain valid measures of risk even in the simplest form of the model, with increasing performance of the model following increasing complexity. The methods chosen which separate this model from previous models (competing risk and stepwise approach) should be considered for future risk estimation models

Diabetes and heart failure associations in women and men: results from the MORGAM consortium

Background: Diabetes and its cardiovascular complications are a growing concern worldwide. Recently, some studies have demonstrated that relative risk of heart failure (HF) is higher in women with type 1 diabetes (T1DM) than in men. This study aims to validate these findings in cohorts representing five countries across Europe. Methods: This study includes 88,559 (51.8% women) participants, 3,281 (46.3% women) of whom had diabetes at baseline. Survival analysis was performed with the outcomes of interest being death and HF with a follow-up time of 12 years. Sub-group analysis according to sex and type of diabetes was also performed for the HF outcome. Results: 6,460 deaths were recorded, of which 567 were amongst those with diabetes. Additionally, HF was diagnosed in 2,772 individuals (446 with diabetes). A multivariable Cox proportional hazard analysis showed that there was an increased risk of death and HF (hazard ratio (HR) of 1.73 [1.58–1.89] and 2.12 [1.91–2.36], respectively) when comparing those with diabetes and those without. The HR for HF was 6.72 [2.75–16.41] for women with T1DM vs. 5.80 [2.72–12.37] for men with T1DM, but the interaction term for sex differences was insignificant (p for interaction 0.45). There was no significant difference in the relative risk of HF between men and women when both types of diabetes were combined (HR 2.22 [1.93–2.54] vs. 1.99 [1.67–2.38] respectively, p for interaction 0.80). Conclusion: Diabetes is associated with increased risks of death and heart failure, and there was no difference in relative risk according to sex

Modelling Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality to 2030 in the British Isles.

OBJECTIVE: Despite rapid declines over the last two decades, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in the British Isles are still amongst the highest in Europe. This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking and physical activity levels, dietary salt and saturated fat intakes on future CHD mortality in three countries: Northern Ireland (NI), Republic of Ireland (RoI) and Scotland. METHODS: CHD mortality models previously developed and validated in each country were extended to predict potential reductions in CHD mortality from 2010 (baseline year) to 2030. Risk factor trends data from recent surveys at baseline were used to model alternative future risk factor scenarios: Absolute decreases in (i) smoking prevalence and (ii) physical inactivity rates of up to 15% by 2030; relative decreases in (iii) dietary salt intake of up to 30% by 2030 and (iv) dietary saturated fat of up to 6% by 2030. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were then conducted. RESULTS: Projected populations in 2030 were 1.3, 3.4 and 3.9 million in NI, RoI and Scotland respectively (adults aged 25-84). In 2030: assuming recent declining mortality trends continue: 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 5.8-7.2%. 15% absolute reductions in physical inactivity levels could decrease CHD deaths by 3.1-3.6%. Relative reductions in salt intake of 30% could decrease CHD deaths by 5.2-5.6% and a 6% reduction in saturated fat intake might decrease CHD deaths by some 7.8-9.0%. These projections remained stable under a wide range of sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Feasible reductions in four cardiovascular risk factors (already achieved elsewhere) could substantially reduce future coronary deaths. More aggressive polices are therefore needed in the British Isles to control tobacco, promote healthy food and increase physical activity

Dietary Salt Intake and Mortality in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE: Many guidelines recommend that patients with type 2 diabetes should aim to reduce their intake of salt. However, the precise relationship between dietary salt intake and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes has not been previously explored. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Six hundred and thirty-eight patients attending a single diabetes clinic were followed in a prospective cohort study. Baseline sodium excretion was estimated from 24-h urinary collections (24hU(Na)). The predictors of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were determined by Cox regression and competing risk modeling, respectively. RESULTS: The mean baseline 24hU(Na) was 184 ± 73 mmol/24 h, which remained consistent throughout the follow-up (intraindividual coefficient of variation [CV] 23 ± 11%). Over a median of 9.9 years, there were 175 deaths, 75 (43%) of which were secondary to cardiovascular events. All-cause mortality was inversely associated with 24hU(Na), after adjusting for other baseline risk factors (P < 0.001). For every 100 mmol rise in 24hU(Na), all-cause mortality was 28% lower (95% CI 6-45%, P = 0.02). After adjusting for the competing risk of noncardiovascular death and other predictors, 24hU(Na) was also significantly associated with cardiovascular mortality (sub-hazard ratio 0.65 [95% CI 0.44-0.95]; P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with type 2 diabetes, lower 24-h urinary sodium excretion was paradoxically associated with increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Interventional studies are necessary to determine if dietary salt has a causative role in determining adverse outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes and the appropriateness of guidelines advocating salt restriction in this setting

The GATA1s isoform is normally down-regulated during terminal haematopoietic differentiation and over-expression leads to failure to repress MYB, CCND2 and SKI during erythroid differentiation of K562 cells

Background: Although GATA1 is one of the most extensively studied haematopoietic transcription factors little is currently known about the physiological functions of its naturally occurring isoforms GATA1s and GATA1FL in humans—particularly whether the isoforms have distinct roles in different lineages and whether they have non-redundant roles in haematopoietic differentiation. As well as being of general interest to understanding of haematopoiesis, GATA1 isoform biology is important for children with Down syndrome associated acute megakaryoblastic leukaemia (DS-AMKL) where GATA1FL mutations are an essential driver for disease pathogenesis. &lt;p/&gt;Methods: Human primary cells and cell lines were analyzed using GATA1 isoform specific PCR. K562 cells expressing GATA1s or GATA1FL transgenes were used to model the effects of the two isoforms on in vitro haematopoietic differentiation. &lt;p/&gt;Results: We found no evidence for lineage specific use of GATA1 isoforms; however GATA1s transcripts, but not GATA1FL transcripts, are down-regulated during in vitro induction of terminal megakaryocytic and erythroid differentiation in the cell line K562. In addition, transgenic K562-GATA1s and K562-GATA1FL cells have distinct gene expression profiles both in steady state and during terminal erythroid differentiation, with GATA1s expression characterised by lack of repression of MYB, CCND2 and SKI. &lt;p/&gt;Conclusions: These findings support the theory that the GATA1s isoform plays a role in the maintenance of proliferative multipotent megakaryocyte-erythroid precursor cells and must be down-regulated prior to terminal differentiation. In addition our data suggest that SKI may be a potential therapeutic target for the treatment of children with DS-AMKL