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Rushing to Overpay: The REIT Premium Revisited

We explore the questions of whether and why Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) pay more for real estate than non-REIT buyers, consequently breaking the law of one price. We develop a model where REITs optimally pay more for property because (1) they are able, due to capital access advantages and, (2) are occasionally compelled, due to regulatory time constraints on the deployment of capital. We show that the typically large (20 to 60 percent) and statistically significant (p-values less than 0.01) REIT-buyer premiums found in standard empirical hedonic pricing models are biased due to unobserved explanatory variables. Using a repeat-transaction methodology that controls for unobserved independent variables, we find the REIT-buyer premium to be about 5 percent. Furthermore, we show that REITs¿ ability (as measured by access to capital markets) and regulator compulsion (as measured by capital deployment deadlines) are related to the price premium.Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), commercial properties, hedonic price analysis, repeat transactions, market efficiency, law of one price, price premium

The Potential for Student Performance Prediction in Small Cohorts with Minimal Available Attributes

The measurement of student performance during their progress through university study provides academic leadership with critical information on each student’s likelihood of success. Academics have traditionally used their interactions with individual students through class activities and interim assessments to identify those “at risk” of failure/withdrawal. However, modern university environments, offering easy on-line availability of course material, may see reduced lecture/tutorial attendance, making such identification more challenging. Modern data mining and machine learning techniques provide increasingly accurate predictions of student examination assessment marks, although these approaches have focussed upon large student populations and wide ranges of data attributes per student. However, many university modules comprise relatively small student cohorts, with institutional protocols limiting the student attributes available for analysis. It appears that very little research attention has been devoted to this area of analysis and prediction. We describe an experiment conducted on a final-year university module student cohort of 23, where individual student data are limited to lecture/tutorial attendance, virtual learning environment accesses and intermediate assessments. We found potential for predicting individual student interim and final assessment marks in small student cohorts with very limited attributes and that these predictions could be useful to support module leaders in identifying students potentially “at risk.”.Peer reviewe

Rethinking pathways to completed suicide by female prisoners [forthcoming]

Purpose: Explore the role of trauma experience in pathways to self-harm or attempted suicide in female prisoners who died through self-inflicted death in England and Wales. Design: Quantitative study using the Prison and Probation Ombudsmen’s independent reports on deaths in custody. 32 cases of female self-inflicted death in custody were coded on the presence of Direct or Interpersonal Trauma, presence of superficial self-harm, near-lethal self-harm, suicide attempts and recent significant life event. The number of previous suicide attempts and age at time of death was recorded. Findings: Direct trauma is linked with repeated suicide attempts but decreased the likelihood of superficial self-harm prior to suicide. Neither interpersonal trauma nor age increased likelihood of pre-suicide behaviours. Near-lethal self-harm was not predicted by either traumatic experience. Amongst these completed suicide cases, 56% were not reported as having experienced trauma, 46% had no recorded previous suicide attempts and 12% also had no previous self-harm reported. Research limitations/implications: The small sample limited statistical power and specificity of classifications. Provides support for direct trauma in developing capacity for repeated suicidal behaviour as indicated in theoretical models of suicide (Joiner, 2005; O’Connor, 2011). Practical implications: Different pathways to suicide likely to exist for female prisoners and importance of trauma intervention services. Originality/value: Using cases of completed suicide in female prisoners to investigate the pathway to suicide from trauma through previous self-harm and attempted suicide

Using Target Efficiency to Select Program Participants and Risk-Factor Models: An Application to Child Mental Health Interventions for Preventing Future Crime

Statistical risk factor models are often proposed for screening high-risk children to participate in early intervention programs. Recent contributions to the program evaluation literature demonstrate the need for incorporating judgments about relative importance of false positives versus false negatives in screening. This paper formalizes these judgments as commensurable economic costs and benefits and applies them to demonstrate an approach to participant selection motivated by the standard cost-benefit criterion of maximizing expected net benefits. Implications of this approach are explored using data from a mental health prevention trial. We illustrate the response of expected net benefits to the choice of a selection risk level, the sensitivity of the optimal selection risk level to per participant cost/benefit magnitudes, and the use of the target-efficiency approach for choosing among alternative risk-factor models. Several strategies that directly incorporate expected net benefit maximization as a criterion in the model estimation process are also examined.

Neutral Evolution as Diffusion in phenotype space: reproduction with mutation but without selection

The process of `Evolutionary Diffusion', i.e. reproduction with local mutation but without selection in a biological population, resembles standard Diffusion in many ways. However, Evolutionary Diffusion allows the formation of local peaks with a characteristic width that undergo drift, even in the infinite population limit. We analytically calculate the mean peak width and the effective random walk step size, and obtain the distribution of the peak width which has a power law tail. We find that independent local mutations act as a diffusion of interacting particles with increased stepsize.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures. Paper now representative of published articl

Kinetic growth walks on complex networks

Kinetically grown self-avoiding walks on various types of generalized random networks have been studied. Networks with short- and long-tailed degree distributions $P(k)$ were considered ($k$, degree or connectivity), including scale-free networks with $P(k) \sim k^{-\gamma}$. The long-range behaviour of self-avoiding walks on random networks is found to be determined by finite-size effects. The mean self-intersection length of non-reversal random walks, , scales as a power of the system size $N$: $ \sim N^{\beta}$, with an exponent $\beta = 0.5$ for short-tailed degree distributions and $\beta < 0.5$ for scale-free networks with $\gamma < 3$. The mean attrition length of kinetic growth walks, , scales as $\sim N^{\alpha}$, with an exponent $\alpha$ which depends on the lowest degree in the network. Results of approximate probabilistic calculations are supported by those derived from simulations of various kinds of networks. The efficiency of kinetic growth walks to explore networks is largely reduced by inhomogeneity in the degree distribution, as happens for scale-free networks.Comment: 10 pages, 8 figure

The prevalence and experience of oral diseases in Adelaide nursing home residents

The document attached has been archived with permission from the Australian Dental Association. An external link to the publisher’s copy is included.Background: The twenty-first century will see the evolution of a population of dentate older Australians with dental needs very different from those of older adults in past years. This study provided comprehensive information concerning oral disease prevalence in older South Australian nursing home residents. Methods: This paper presents cross-sectional baseline results. Results: Most of the 224 residents, from seven randomly selected nursing homes, were functionally dependent, medically compromised, cognitively impaired and behaviourally difficult older adults who presented many complex challenges to carers and to dental professionals. Two-thirds (66 per cent) were edentulous with many dental problems and treatment needs. Dentate residents had a mean of 11.9 teeth present, higher than previously reported. The prevalence and experience of coronal and root caries and plaque accumulation was very high in dentate residents; especially males, those admitted more than three years previously, those who ate fewer food types and those who were severely cognitively impaired. These residents had more retained roots, decayed teeth and missing teeth, and fewer filled teeth when compared with data for community-dwelling older adults. Conclusions: This study highlighted the poor oral health status of these nursing home residents and the great impact of dementia on their high levels of oral diseases.JM Chalmers, C Hodge, JM Fuss, AJ Spencer, KD Carte

Incisional Hernia in a 12-mm Nonbladed Trocar Site Following Laparoscopic Nephrectomy

Non-bladed trocars and radially dilating systems are considered less traumatic to the abdominal wall because they do not incise the fascia itself. Since the fascia is not cut, it has believed that the fascia closes by itself. Consequently, several authors have suggested that closure of the abdominal fascia may be unnecessary when such non-bladed laparoscopic trocars are used. We report of a case in which a port site hernia was diagnosed at the site of a 12 mm non-bladed trocar 11 days after laparoscopic nephrectomy. Although it may be true that in many cases port site closure is unnecessary and does not result in bowel herniation, this case along with a prior report serve as important reminders that port site hernias are possible even in the use of non-bladed or radial dilating systems, and that there exists a number of potential variables that may predispose to herniation and consequently the ability to predict such events in individual patients remains uncertain. As such, we recommend closing 10 mm or larger port sites irrespective of trocar design