Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change

Globally, thermodynamics explains an increase in atmospheric water vapor with warming of around 7%/°C near to the surface. In contrast, global precipitation and evaporation are constrained by the Earth's energy balance to increase at ∼2–3%/°C. However, this rate of increase is suppressed by rapid atmospheric adjustments in response to greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosols that directly alter the atmospheric energy budget. Rapid adjustments to forcings, cooling effects from scattering aerosol, and observational uncertainty can explain why observed global precipitation responses are currently difficult to detect but are expected to emerge and accelerate as warming increases and aerosol forcing diminishes. Precipitation increases with warming are expected to be smaller over land than ocean due to limitations on moisture convergence, exacerbated by feedbacks and affected by rapid adjustments. Thermodynamic increases in atmospheric moisture fluxes amplify wet and dry events, driving an intensification of precipitation extremes. The rate of intensification can deviate from a simple thermodynamic response due to in‐storm and larger‐scale feedback processes, while changes in large‐scale dynamics and catchment characteristics further modulate the frequency of flooding in response to precipitation increases. Changes in atmospheric circulation in response to radiative forcing and evolving surface temperature patterns are capable of dominating water cycle changes in some regions. Moreover, the direct impact of human activities on the water cycle through water abstraction, irrigation, and land use change is already a significant component of regional water cycle change and is expected to further increase in importance as water demand grows with global population

Stenographic Bureau

Business card for Stenographic Burea

Letter from T. S. Pendergrass

Letter concerning a copy of a report from a session of the State Legislature

Investigating the relationship between mitochondrial genetic variation and cardiovascular-related traits to develop a framework for mitochondrial phenome-wide association studies

BACKGROUND: Mitochondria play a critical role in the cell and have DNA independent of the nuclear genome. There is much evidence that mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation plays a role in human health and disease, however, this area of investigation has lagged behind research into the role of nuclear genetic variation on complex traits and phenotypic outcomes. Phenome-wide association studies (PheWAS) investigate the association between a wide range of traits and genetic variation. To date, this approach has not been used to investigate the relationship between mtDNA variants and phenotypic variation. Herein, we describe the development of a PheWAS framework for mtDNA variants (mt-PheWAS). Using the Metabochip custom genotyping array, nuclear and mitochondrial DNA variants were genotyped in 11,519 African Americans from the Vanderbilt University biorepository, BioVU. We employed both polygenic modeling and association testing with mitochondrial single nucleotide polymorphisms (mtSNPs) to explore the relationship between mtDNA variants and a group of eight cardiovascular-related traits obtained from de-identified electronic medical records within BioVU. RESULTS: Using polygenic modeling we found evidence for an effect of mtDNA variation on total cholesterol and type 2 diabetes (T2D). After performing comprehensive mitochondrial single SNP associations, we identified an increased number of single mtSNP associations with total cholesterol and T2D compared to the other phenotypes examined, which did not have more significantly associated SNPs than would be expected by chance. Among the mtSNPs significantly associated with T2D we identified variant mt16189, an association previously reported only in Asian and European-descent populations. CONCLUSIONS: Our replication of previous findings and identification of novel associations from this initial study suggest that our mt-PheWAS approach is robust for investigating the relationship between mitochondrial genetic variation and a range of phenotypes, providing a framework for future mt-PheWAS

Challenges in quantifying changes in the global water cycle

Human influences have likely already impacted the large-scale water cycle but natural variability and observational uncertainty are substantial. It is essential to maintain and improve observational capabilities to better characterize changes. Understanding observed changes to the global water cycle is key to predicting future climate changes and their impacts. While many datasets document crucial variables such as precipitation, ocean salinity, runoff, and humidity, most are uncertain for determining long-term changes. In situ networks provide long time-series over land but are sparse in many regions, particularly the tropics. Satellite and reanalysis datasets provide global coverage, but their long-term stability is lacking. However, comparisons of changes among related variables can give insights into the robustness of observed changes. For example, ocean salinity, interpreted with an understanding of ocean processes, can help cross-validate precipitation. Observational evidence for human influences on the water cycle is emerging, but uncertainties resulting from internal variability and observational errors are too large to determine whether the observed and simulated changes are consistent. Improvements to the in situ and satellite observing networks that monitor the changing water cycle are required, yet continued data coverage is threatened by funding reductions. Uncertainty both in the role of anthropogenic aerosols, and due to large climate variability presently limits confidence in attribution of observed changes

Cyborg Activism: Exploring the reconfigurations of democratic subjectivity in Anonymous

This article develops the concept of cyborg activism as novel configuration of democratic subjectivity in the Information Age by exploring the online collectivity Anonymous as a prototype. By fusing elements of human/machine and organic/digital the cyborg disrupts modern logics of binary thinking. Cyborg activism emerges as the reconfiguration of equality/hierarchy, reason/emotion, and nihilism/idealism. Anonymous demonstrates how through the use of contingent and ephemeral digital personae hierarchies in cyborg activism prove more volatile than in face-to-face settings. Emotions appear as an essential part of a politics of passion, which enables pursuing laughter and joy, expressing anger, and experiencing empowerment as part of a reasoned, strategic politics. Anonymous’ political content reconfigures nihilist sentiments, frustration, and political disenchantment on the one hand with idealist world views on the other. This enables the cohabitation and partial integration of a great diversity of political claims rooted in various ideologies

Sensible heat has significantly affected the global hydrological cycle over the historical period

Globally, latent heating associated with a change in precipitation is balanced by changes to atmospheric radiative cooling and sensible heat fluxes. Both components can be altered by climate forcing mechanisms and through climate feedbacks, but the impacts of climate forcing and feedbacks on sensible heat fluxes have received much less attention. Here we show, using a range of climate modelling results, that changes in sensible heat are the dominant contributor to the present global-mean precipitation change since preindustrial time, because the radiative impact of forcings and feedbacks approximately compensate. The model results show a dissimilar influence on sensible heat and precipitation from various drivers of climate change. Due to its strong atmospheric absorption, black carbon is found to influence the sensible heat very differently compared to other aerosols and greenhouse gases. Our results indicate that this is likely caused by differences in the impact on the lower tropospheric stability

PDRMIP: a precipitation driver and response model intercomparison project - protocol and preliminary results

PDRMIP investigates the role of various drivers of climate change for mean and extreme precipitation changes, based on multiple climate model output and energy budget analyses. As the global temperature increases with changing climate, precipitation rates and patterns are affected through a wide range of physical mechanisms. The globally averaged intensity of extreme precipitation also changes more rapidly than the globally averaged precipitation rate. While some aspects of the regional variation in precipitation predicted by climate models appear robust, there is still a large degree of inter-model differences unaccounted for. Individual drivers of climate change initially alter the energy budget of the atmosphere leading to distinct rapid adjustments involving changes in precipitation. Differences in how these rapid adjustment processes manifest themselves within models are likely to explain a large fraction of the present model spread and needs better quantifications to improve precipitation predictions. Here, we introduce the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), where a set of idealized experiments designed to understand the role of different climate forcing mechanisms were performed by a large set of climate models. PDRMIP focuses on understanding how precipitation changes relating to rapid adjustments and slower responses to climate forcings are represented across models. Initial results show that rapid adjustments account for large regional differences in hydrological sensitivity across multiple drivers. The PDRMIP results are expected to dramatically improve our understanding of the causes of the present diversity in future climate projections

Genetic variants associated with fasting glucose and insulin concentrations in an ethnically diverse population: results from the Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) study

Background: Multiple genome-wide association studies (GWAS) within European populations have implicated common genetic variants associated with insulin and glucose concentrations. In contrast, few studies have been conducted within minority groups, which carry the highest burden of impaired glucose homeostasis and type 2 diabetes in the U.S. Methods: As part of the 'Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) Consortium, we investigated the association of up to 10 GWAS-identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 8 genetic regions with glucose or insulin concentrations in up to 36,579 non-diabetic subjects including 23,323 European Americans (EA) and 7,526 African Americans (AA), 3,140 Hispanics, 1,779 American Indians (AI), and 811 Asians. We estimated the association between each SNP and fasting glucose or log-transformed fasting insulin, followed by meta-analysis to combine results across PAGE sites. Results: Overall, our results show that 9/9 GWAS SNPs are associated with glucose in EA (p = 0.04 to 9 × 10-15), versus 3/9 in AA (p= 0.03 to 6 × 10-5), 3/4 SNPs in Hispanics, 2/4 SNPs in AI, and 1/2 SNPs in Asians. For insulin we observed a significant association with rs780094/GCKR in EA, Hispanics and AI only. Conclusions: Generalization of results across multiple racial/ethnic groups helps confirm the relevance of some of these loci for glucose and insulin metabolism. Lack of association in non-EA groups may be due to insufficient power, or to unique patterns of linkage disequilibrium

Phenome-Wide Association Study (PheWAS) for Detection of Pleiotropy within the Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) Network

Using a phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) approach, we comprehensively tested genetic variants for association with phenotypes available for 70,061 study participants in the Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) network. Our aim was to better characterize the genetic architecture of complex traits and identify novel pleiotropic relationships. This PheWAS drew on five population-based studies representing four major racial/ethnic groups (European Americans (EA), African Americans (AA), Hispanics/Mexican-Americans, and Asian/Pacific Islanders) in PAGE, each site with measurements for multiple traits, associated laboratory measures, and intermediate biomarkers. A total of 83 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) identified by genome-wide association studies (GWAS) were genotyped across two or more PAGE study sites. Comprehensive tests of association, stratified by race/ethnicity, were performed, encompassing 4,706 phenotypes mapped to 105 phenotype-classes, and association results were compared across study sites. A total of 111 PheWAS results had significant associations for two or more PAGE study sites with consistent direction of effect with a significance threshold of p<0.01 for the same racial/ethnic group, SNP, and phenotype-class. Among results identified for SNPs previously associated with phenotypes such as lipid traits, type 2 diabetes, and body mass index, 52 replicated previously published genotype-phenotype associations, 26 represented phenotypes closely related to previously known genotype-phenotype associations, and 33 represented potentially novel genotype-phenotype associations with pleiotropic effects. The majority of the potentially novel results were for single PheWAS phenotype-classes, for example, for CDKN2A/B rs1333049 (previously associated with type 2 diabetes in EA) a PheWAS association was identified for hemoglobin levels in AA. Of note, however, GALNT2 rs2144300 (previously associated with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels in EA) had multiple potentially novel PheWAS associations, with hypertension related phenotypes in AA and with serum calcium levels and coronary artery disease phenotypes in EA. PheWAS identifies associations for hypothesis generation and exploration of the genetic architecture of complex traits