The Price of Play: Self-Organized Infant Mortality Cycles in Chimpanzees

Chimpanzees have been used extensively as a model system for laboratory research on infectious diseases. Ironically, we know next to nothing about disease dynamics in wild chimpanzee populations. Here, we analyze long-term demographic and behavioral data from two habituated chimpanzee communities in Taï National Park, Côte d'Ivoire, where previous work has shown respiratory pathogens to be an important source of infant mortality. In this paper we trace the effect of social connectivity on infant mortality dynamics. We focus on social play which, as the primary context of contact between young chimpanzees, may serve as a key venue for pathogen transmission. Infant abundance and mortality rates at Taï cycled regularly and in a way that was not well explained in terms of environmental forcing. Rather, infant mortality cycles appeared to self-organize in response to the ontogeny of social play. Each cycle started when the death of multiple infants in an outbreak synchronized the reproductive cycles of their mothers. A pulse of births predictably arrived about twelve months later, with social connectivity increasing over the following two years as the large birth cohort approached the peak of social play. The high social connectivity at this play peak then appeared to facilitate further outbreaks. Our results provide the first evidence that social play has a strong role in determining chimpanzee disease transmission risk and the first record of chimpanzee disease cycles similar to those seen in human children. They also lend more support to the view that infectious diseases are a major threat to the survival of remaining chimpanzee populations

Warm Breeze from the starboard bow: a new population of neutral helium in the heliosphere

We investigate the signals from neutral He atoms observed from Earth orbit in 2010 by IBEX. The full He signal observed during the 2010 observation season can be explained as a superposition of pristine neutral interstellar He gas and an additional population of neutral He that we call the Warm Breeze. The Warm Breeze is approximately two-fold slower and 2.5 times warmer than the primary interstellar He population, and its density in front of the heliosphere is ~7% that of the neutral interstellar helium. The inflow direction of the Warm Breeze differs by ~19deg from the inflow direction of interstellar gas. The Warm Breeze seems a long-term feature of the heliospheric environment. It has not been detected earlier because it is strongly ionized inside the heliosphere, which brings it below the threshold of detection via pickup ion and heliospheric backscatter glow observations, as well as by the direct sampling of GAS/Ulysses. Possible sources for the Warm Breeze include (1) the secondary population of interstellar helium, created via charge exchange and perhaps elastic scattering of neutral interstellar He atoms on interstellar He+ ions in the outer heliosheath, or (2) a gust of interstellar He originating from a hypothetic wave train in the Local Interstellar Cloud. A secondary population is expected from models, but the characteristics of the Warm Breeze do not fully conform to modeling results. If, nevertheless, this is the explanation, IBEX-Lo observations of the Warm Breeze provide key insights into the physical state of plasma in the outer heliosheath. If the second hypothesis is true, the source is likely to be located within a few thousand of AU from the Sun, which is the propagation range of possible gusts of interstellar neutral helium with the Warm Breeze characteristics against dissipation via elastic scattering in the Local Cloud.Comment: submitted to ApJ

Interstellar neutral helium in the heliosphere from IBEX observations. III. Mach number of the flow, velocity vector, and temperature from the first six years of measurements

We analyzed observations of interstellar neutral helium (ISN~He) obtained from the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) satellite during its first six years of operation. We used a refined version of the ISN~He simulation model, presented in the companion paper by Sokol_et al. 2015, and a sophisticated data correlation and uncertainty system and parameter fitting method, described in the companion paper by Swaczyna et al 2015. We analyzed the entire data set together and the yearly subsets, and found the temperature and velocity vector of ISN~He in front of the heliosphere. As seen in the previous studies, the allowable parameters are highly correlated and form a four-dimensional tube in the parameter space. The inflow longitudes obtained from the yearly data subsets show a spread of ~6 degree, with the other parameters varying accordingly along the parameter tube, and the minimum chi-square value is larger than expected. We found, however, that the Mach number of the ISN~He flow shows very little scatter and is thus very tightly constrained. It is in excellent agreement with the original analysis of ISN~He observations from IBEX and recent reanalyses of observations from Ulysses. We identify a possible inaccuracy in the Warm Breeze parameters as the likely cause of the scatter in the ISN~He parameters obtained from the yearly subsets, and we suppose that another component may exist in the signal, or a process that is not accounted for in the current physical model of ISN~He in front of the heliosphere. From our analysis, the inflow velocity vector, temperature, and Mach number of the flow are equal to lambda_ISNHe = 255.8 +/- 0.5 degree, beta_ISNHe = 5.16 +/- 0.10 degree, T_ISNHe = 7440 +/- 260 K, v_ISNHe = 25.8 +/- 0.4$ km/s, and M_ISNHe = 5.079 +/- 0.028, with uncertainties strongly correlated along the parameter tube.Comment: Updated reference