Inflation targeting and private sector forecasts

Transparency is one of the biggest innovations in central bank policy of the past quarter century. Modern central bankers believe that they should be as clear about their objectives and actions as possible. However, is greater transparency always beneficial? Recent work suggests that when private agents have diverse sources of information, public information can cause them to overreact to the signals from the central bank, leading the economy to be too sensitive to common forecast errors. Greater transparency could be destabilizing. While this theoretical result has clear intuitive appeal, it turns on a combination of assumptions and conditions, so it remains to be established that it is of empirical relevance. ; In this paper we study the degree to which increased information about monetary policy might lead to individuals coordinating their forecasts. Specifically, we estimate a series of simple models to measure the impact of inflation targeting on the dispersion of private sector forecasts of inflation. Using a panel data set that includes 15 countries over 20 years we find no convincing evidence that adopting an inflation targeting regime leads to a reduction in the dispersion of private sector forecasts of inflation. While for some specifications adoption of inflation target does seem to reduce the standard deviation of inflation forecasts, the impact is rarely precise and always small.

The unreliability of inflation indicators

Analysts seeking evidence of rising inflation often focus on the movements of a single indicator_an increase in the price of gold, for example, or a decline in the unemployment rate. But simple statistical tests reveal that such indicators, used in isolation, have very limited predictive power.Inflation (Finance) ; Economic indicators ; Forecasting

Population structure of Atlantic swordfish (Xiphias gladius L. 1758) (Teleostea, Xiphiidae) using mitochondrial DNA analysis: implications for fisheries management

Recent studies on Atlantic swordfish (Xiphias gladius L. 1758) genetic structure have demonstrated significant heterogeneity but the precise boundary between populations remains to be identified. In this context, genetic diversity was investigated by PCR–RFLP analysis at the control region of mitochondrial DNA (D–loop) from 274 swordfish specimens collected from five different areas of the Atlantic Ocean. The analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) showed that genetic variation was mainly due to differences within rather than between the studied areas. Additionally, the phylogenetic analysis did not show evident relationships among haplotypes from all areas. However, low but significant FST values were recorded when comparing Equatorial samples with those from the north central and north tropical Atlantic. These results do not support a need for changing the current management boundary for the Atlantic fishery. Key words: Xiphiidae, Swordfish, Xiphias gladius, Mitochondrial DNA, Genetic variability, Atlantic Ocean.Estudios recientes sobre la estructura genética del pez espada del Atlántico (Xiphias gladius L. 1758) han demostrado una heterogeneidad significativa, pero los límites precisos entre poblaciones no han sido identificados. En este contexto, la diversidad genética se ha investigado mediante análisis PCR–RFLP en la región control de ADN mitocondrial (bucle D) de 274 peces espada recolectados en cinco zonas diferentes del océano Atlántico. El análisis de la varianza molecular (AMOVA) mostró que la variación genética se debía a diferencias en cada zona y no entre las zonas estudiadas. Además, los análisis filogenéticos no muestran relaciones evidentes entre los haplotipos de todas las zonas. A pesar de ello, al comparar las muestras ecuatoriales con las de zonas más al norte, se obtienen valores de FST bajos pero significativos. Estos resultados indican que no es necesario cambiar los límites de las zonas de gestión para la pesquería del Atlántico. Palabras clave: Xiphiidae, Pez espada, Xiphias gladius, ADN mitocondrial, Variabilidad genética, Océano Atlántico.Recent studies on Atlantic swordfish (Xiphias gladius L. 1758) genetic structure have demonstrated significant heterogeneity but the precise boundary between populations remains to be identified. In this context, genetic diversity was investigated by PCR–RFLP analysis at the control region of mitochondrial DNA (D–loop) from 274 swordfish specimens collected from five different areas of the Atlantic Ocean. The analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) showed that genetic variation was mainly due to differences within rather than between the studied areas. Additionally, the phylogenetic analysis did not show evident relationships among haplotypes from all areas. However, low but significant FST values were recorded when comparing Equatorial samples with those from the north central and north tropical Atlantic. These results do not support a need for changing the current management boundary for the Atlantic fishery. Key words: Xiphiidae, Swordfish, Xiphias gladius, Mitochondrial DNA, Genetic variability, Atlantic Ocea

Prospect for Charge Current Neutrino Interactions Measurements at the CERN-PS

Tensions in several phenomenological models grew with experimental results on neutrino/antineutrino oscillations at Short-Baseline (SBL) and with the recent, carefully recomputed, antineutrino fluxes from nuclear reactors. At a refurbished SBL CERN-PS facility an experiment aimed to address the open issues has been proposed [1], based on the technology of imaging in ultra-pure cryogenic Liquid Argon (LAr). Motivated by this scenario a detailed study of the physics case was performed. We tackled specific physics models and we optimized the neutrino beam through a full simulation. Experimental aspects not fully covered by the LAr detection, i.e. the measurements of the lepton charge on event-by-event basis and their energy over a wide range, were also investigated. Indeed the muon leptons from Charged Current (CC) (anti-)neutrino interactions play an important role in disentangling different phenomenological scenarios provided their charge state is determined. Also, the study of muon appearance/disappearance can benefit of the large statistics of CC muon events from the primary neutrino beam. Results of our study are reported in detail in this proposal. We aim to design, construct and install two Spectrometers at "NEAR" and "FAR" sites of the SBL CERN-PS, compatible with the already proposed LAr detectors. Profiting of the large mass of the two Spectrometers their stand-alone performances have also been exploited.Comment: 70 pages, 38 figures. Proposal submitted to SPS-C, CER

Why are Prices Sticky? Evidence from Business Survey Data

This paper offers new insights on the price setting behaviour of German retail firms using a novel dataset that consists of a large panel of monthly business surveys from 1991-2006. The firm-level data allows matching changes in firms' prices to several other firm-characteristics. Moreover, information on price expectations allow analyzing the determinants of price updating. Using univariate and bivariate ordered probit specifications, empirical menu cost models are estimated relating the probability of price adjustment and price updating, respectively, to both time- and state- dependent variables. First, results suggest an important role for state-dependence; changes in the macroeconomic and institutional environment as well as firm-specific factors are significantly related to the timing of price adjustment. These findings imply that price setting models should endogenize the timing of price adjustment in order to generate realistic predictions concerning the transmission of monetary policy. Second, an analysis of price expectations yields similar results providing evidence in favour of state-dependent sticky plan models. Third, intermediate input cost changes are among the most important determinants of price adjustment suggesting that pricing models should explicitly incorporate price setting at different production stages. However, the results show that adjustment to input cost changes takes time indicating "additional stickiness" at the last stage of processing

Search for anomalies in the neutrino sector with muon spectrometers and large LArTPC imaging detectors at CERN

A new experiment with an intense ~2 GeV neutrino beam at CERN SPS is proposed in order to definitely clarify the possible existence of additional neutrino states, as pointed out by neutrino calibration source experiments, reactor and accelerator experiments and measure the corresponding oscillation parameters. The experiment is based on two identical LAr-TPCs complemented by magnetized spectrometers detecting electron and muon neutrino events at Far and Near positions, 1600 m and 300 m from the proton target, respectively. The ICARUS T600 detector, the largest LAr-TPC ever built with a size of about 600 ton of imaging mass, now running in the LNGS underground laboratory, will be moved at the CERN Far position. An additional 1/4 of the T600 detector (T150) will be constructed and located in the Near position. Two large area spectrometers will be placed downstream of the two LAr-TPC detectors to perform charge identification and muon momentum measurements from sub-GeV to several GeV energy range, greatly complementing the physics capabilities. This experiment will offer remarkable discovery potentialities, collecting a very large number of unbiased events both in the neutrino and antineutrino channels, largely adequate to definitely settle the origin of the observed neutrino-related anomalies.Comment: Contribution to the European Strategy for Particle Physics - Open Symposium Preparatory Group, Kracow 10-12 September 201

Multi-GeV Electron Spectrometer

The advance in laser plasma acceleration techniques pushes the regime of the resulting accelerated particles to higher energies and intensities. In particular the upcoming experiments with the FLAME laser at LNF will enter the GeV regime with almost 1pC of electrons. From the current status of understanding of the acceleration mechanism, relatively large angular and energy spreads are expected. There is therefore the need to develop a device capable to measure the energy of electrons over three orders of magnitude (few MeV to few GeV) under still unknown angular divergences. Within the PlasmonX experiment at LNF a spectrometer is being constructed to perform these measurements. It is made of an electro-magnet and a screen made of scintillating fibers for the measurement of the trajectories of the particles. The large range of operation, the huge number of particles and the need to focus the divergence present unprecedented challenges in the design and construction of such a device. We will present the design considerations for this spectrometer and the first results from a prototype.Comment: 7 pages, 6 figures, submitted to NIM

Prospects for the measurement of muon-neutrino disappearance at the FNAL-Booster

Neutrino physics is nowadays receiving more and more attention as a possible source of information for the long-standing problem of new physics beyond the Standard Model. The recent measurement of the mixing angle $\theta_{13}$ in the standard mixing oscillation scenario encourages us to pursue the still missing results on leptonic CP violation and absolute neutrino masses. However, puzzling measurements exist that deserve an exhaustive evaluation. The NESSiE Collaboration has been setup to undertake conclusive experiments to clarify the muon-neutrino disappearance measurements at small $L/E$, which will be able to put severe constraints to models with more than the three-standard neutrinos, or even to robustly measure the presence of a new kind of neutrino oscillation for the first time. To this aim the use of the current FNAL-Booster neutrino beam for a Short-Baseline experiment has been carefully evaluated. This proposal refers to the use of magnetic spectrometers at two different sites, Near and Far. Their positions have been extensively studied, together with the possible performances of two OPERA-like spectrometers. The proposal is constrained by availability of existing hardware and a time-schedule compatible with the CERN project for a new more performant neutrino beam, which will nicely extend the physics results achievable at the Booster. The possible FNAL experiment will allow to clarify the current $\nu_{\mu}$ disappearance tension with $\nu_e$ appearance and disappearance at the eV mass scale. Instead, a new CERN neutrino beam would allow a further span in the parameter space together with a refined control of systematics and, more relevant, the measurement of the antineutrino sector, by upgrading the spectrometer with detectors currently under R&D study.Comment: 76 pages, 52 figure

A facility to Search for Hidden Particles (SHiP) at the CERN SPS

A new general purpose fixed target facility is proposed at the CERN SPS accelerator which is aimed at exploring the domain of hidden particles and make measurements with tau neutrinos. Hidden particles are predicted by a large number of models beyond the Standard Model. The high intensity of the SPS 400~GeV beam allows probing a wide variety of models containing light long-lived exotic particles with masses below ${\cal O}$(10)~GeV/c$^2$, including very weakly interacting low-energy SUSY states. The experimental programme of the proposed facility is capable of being extended in the future, e.g. to include direct searches for Dark Matter and Lepton Flavour Violation.Comment: Technical Proposa