1,351 research outputs found
Systemic Risk in a Unifying Framework for Cascading Processes on Networks
We introduce a general framework for models of cascade and contagion
processes on networks, to identify their commonalities and differences. In
particular, models of social and financial cascades, as well as the fiber
bundle model, the voter model, and models of epidemic spreading are recovered
as special cases. To unify their description, we define the net fragility of a
node, which is the difference between its fragility and the threshold that
determines its failure. Nodes fail if their net fragility grows above zero and
their failure increases the fragility of neighbouring nodes, thus possibly
triggering a cascade. In this framework, we identify three classes depending on
the way the fragility of a node is increased by the failure of a neighbour. At
the microscopic level, we illustrate with specific examples how the failure
spreading pattern varies with the node triggering the cascade, depending on its
position in the network and its degree. At the macroscopic level, systemic risk
is measured as the final fraction of failed nodes, , and for each of
the three classes we derive a recursive equation to compute its value. The
phase diagram of as a function of the initial conditions, thus allows
for a prediction of the systemic risk as well as a comparison of the three
different model classes. We could identify which model class lead to a
first-order phase transition in systemic risk, i.e. situations where small
changes in the initial conditions may lead to a global failure. Eventually, we
generalize our framework to encompass stochastic contagion models. This
indicates the potential for further generalizations.Comment: 43 pages, 16 multipart figure
A kinetic equation for economic value estimation with irrationality and herding
A kinetic inhomogeneous Boltzmann-type equation is proposed to model the dynamics of the number of agents in a large market depending on the estimated value of an asset and the rationality of the agents. The interaction rules take into account the interplay of the agents with sources of public information, herding phenomena, and irrationality of the individuals. In the formal grazing collision limit, a nonlinear nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation with anisotropic (or incomplete) diffusion is derived. The existence of global-in-time weak solutions to the Fokker-Planck initial-boundary-value problem is proved. Numerical experiments for the Boltzmann equation highlight the importance of the reliability of public information in the formation of bubbles and crashes. The use of Bollinger bands in the simulations shows how herding may lead to strong trends with low volatility of the asset prices, but eventually also to abrupt corrections
Measuring and managing liquidity risk in the Hungarian practice
The crisis that unfolded in 2007/2008 turned the attention of the financial world toward liquidity, the lack of which caused substantial losses. As a result, the need arose for the traditional financial models to be extended with liquidity. Our goal is to discover how
Hungarian market players relate to liquidity. Our results are obtained through a series of semistructured
interviews, and are hoped to be a starting point for extending the existing models in an appropriate way. Our main results show that different investor groups can be identified along their approaches to liquidity, and they rarely use sophisticated models to measure and manage liquidity. We conclude that although market players would have access to complex liquidity measurement and management tools, there is a limited need for these, because the currently available models are unable to use complex liquidity information effectively
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