[Accepted Manuscript] Systems thinking in public health: a bibliographic contribution to a meta-narrative review.

Research across the formal, natural and social sciences has greatly expanded our knowledge about complex systems in recent decades, informing a broadly inclusive, cross-disciplinary conceptual framework referred to as Systems Thinking (ST). Its use in public health is rapidly increasing, although there remains a poor understanding of how these ideas have been imported, adapted and elaborated by public health research networks worldwide. This review employed a mixed methods approach to narrate the development of ST in public health. Tabulated results from a literature search of the Web of Science Core Collection database were used to perform a bibliometric analysis and literature review. Annual publication counts and citation scores were used to analyse trends and identify popular and potential 'landmark' publications. Citation network and co-authorship network diagrams were analysed to identify groups of articles and researchers in various network roles. Our search string related to 763 publications. Filtering excluded 208 publications while citation tracing identified 2 texts. The final 557 publications were analysed, revealing a near-exponential growth in literature over recent years. Half of all articles were published after 2010 with almost a fifth (17.8%) published in 2014. Bibliographic analysis identified five distinct citation and co-authorship groups homophilous by common geography, research focus, inspiration or institutional affiliation.As a loosely related set of sciences, many public health researchers have developed different aspects of ST based on their underlying perspective. Early studies were inspired by Management-related literature, while later groups adopted a broadly inclusive understanding which incorporated related Systems sciences and approaches. ST is an increasingly popular subject of discussion within public health although its understanding and approaches remain unclear. Briefly tracing the introduction and development of these ideas and author groups in public health literature may provide clarity and opportunities for further learning, research and development

Использование терминообразующего потенциала классических языков современными языками (на примере экономической терминологии современного французского языка)

It is imperative to fascinate young children at an early stage in their education for the analytical sciences. The exposure of the public to mass spectrometry presently increases rapidly through the common media. Outreach activities can take advantage of this exposure and employ mass spectrometry as an exquisite example of an analytical science in which children can be fascinated. The presented teaching modules introduce children to mass spectrometry and give them the opportunity to experience a modern research laboratory. The modules are highly adaptable and can be applied to young children from the age of 6 to 14 y. In an interactive tour, the students explore three major scientific concepts related to mass spectrometry; the building blocks of matter, charged particle manipulation by electrostatic fields, and analyte identification by mass analysis. Also, the students carry out a mass spectrometry experiment and learn to interpret the resulting mass spectra. The multistage, inquiry-based tour contains flexible methods, which teach the students current-day research techniques and possible applications to real research topics. Besides the scientific concepts, laboratory safety and hygiene are stressed and the students are enthused for the analytical sciences by participating in “hands-on” work. The presented modules have repeatedly been successfully employed during laboratory open days. They are also found to be extremely suitable for (early) high school science classes during laboratory visit-focused field trips

The association between acute flaccid myelitis (AFM) and enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) – what is the evidence for causation?

© 2018, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). All rights reserved. Background: Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) has historically been a sporadic disease, causing occasional small outbreaks of generally mild infection. In recent years, there has been evidence of an increase in EV-D68 infections globally. Large outbreaks of EV-D68, with thousands of cases, occurred in the United States, Canada and Europe in 2014. The outbreaks were associated temporally and geographically with an increase in clusters of acute flaccid myelitis (AFM). Aims: We aimed to evaluate a causal association between EV-D68 and AFM. ?Methods: Using data from the published and grey literature, we applied the Bradford Hill criteria, a set of nine principles applied to examine causality, to evaluate the relationship between EV-D68 and AFM. Based on available evidence, we defined the Bradford Hill Criteria as being not met, or met minimally, partially or fully. Results: Available evidence applied to EV-D68 and AFM showed that six of the Bradford Hill criteria were fully met and two were partially met. The criterion of biological gradient was minimally met. The incidence of EV-D68 infections is increasing worldwide. Phylogenetic epidemiology showed diversification from the original Fermon and Rhyne strains since the year 2000, with evolution of a genetically distinct outbreak strain, clade B1. Clade B1, but not older strains, is associated with AFM and is neuropathic in animal models. Conclusion: While more research is needed on dose–response relationship, application of the Bradford Hill criteria supported a causal relationship between EV-D68 and AFM

The Phylogeography of MERS-CoV in Hospital Outbreak-Associated Cases Compared to Sporadic Cases in Saudi Arabia.

This study compared the phylogeography of MERS-CoV between hospital outbreak-associated cases and sporadic cases in Saudi Arabia. We collected complete genome sequences from human samples in Saudi Arabia and data on the multiple risk factors of human MERS-CoV in Saudi Arabia reported from 2012 to 2018. By matching each sequence to human cases, we identified isolates as hospital outbreak-associated cases or sporadic cases. We used Bayesian phylogenetic methods including temporal, discrete trait analysis and phylogeography to uncover transmission routes of MERS-CoV isolates between hospital outbreaks and sporadic cases. Of the 120 sequences collected between 19 June 2012 and 23 January 2017, there were 64 isolates from hospital outbreak-associated cases and 56 from sporadic cases. Overall, MERS-CoV is fast evolving at 7.43 × 10-4 substitutions per site per year. Isolates from hospital outbreaks showed unusually fast evolutionary speed in a shorter time-frame than sporadic cases. Multiple introductions of different MERS-CoV strains occurred in three separate hospital outbreaks. MERS-CoV appears to be mutating in humans. The impact of mutations on viruses transmissibility in humans is unknown

The REDS score: a new scoring system to risk-stratify emergency department suspected sepsis: a derivation and validation study.

OBJECTIVE: To derive and validate a new clinical prediction rule to risk-stratify emergency department (ED) patients admitted with suspected sepsis. DESIGN: Retrospective prognostic study of prospectively collected data. SETTING: ED. PARTICIPANTS: Patients aged ≥18 years who met two Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome criteria or one Red Flag sepsis criteria on arrival, received intravenous antibiotics for a suspected infection and admitted. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: In-hospital all-cause mortality. METHOD: The data were divided into derivation and validation cohorts. The simplified-Mortality in Severe Sepsis in the ED score and quick-SOFA scores, refractory hypotension and lactate were collectively termed 'component scores' and cumulatively termed the 'Risk-stratification of ED suspected Sepsis (REDS) score'. Each patient in the derivation cohort received a score (0-3) for each component score. The REDS score ranged from 0 to 12. The component scores were subject to univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. The receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves for the REDS and the components scores were constructed and their cut-off points identified. Scores above the cut-off points were deemed high-risk. The area under the ROC (AUROC) curves and sensitivity for mortality of the high-risk category of the REDS score and component scores were compared. The REDS score was internally validated. RESULTS: 2115 patients of whom 282 (13.3%) died in hospital. Derivation cohort: 1078 patients with 140 deaths (13%). The AUROC curve with 95% CI, cut-off point and sensitivity for mortality (95% CI) of the high-risk category of the REDS score were: derivation: 0.78 (0.75 to 0.80); ≥3; 85.0 (78 to 90.5). VALIDATION: 0.74 (0.71 to 0.76); ≥3; 84.5 (77.5 to 90.0). The AUROC curve and the sensitivity for mortality of the REDS score was better than that of the component scores. Specificity and mortality rates for REDS scores of ≥3, ≥5 and ≥7 were 54.8%, 88.8% and 96.9% and 21.8%, 36.0% and 49.1%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The REDS score is a simple and objective score to risk-stratify ED patients with suspected sepsis

An Internet of Things based bed-egress alerting paradigm using wearable sensors in elderly care environment

The lack of healthcare staff and increasing proportions of elderly population is alarming. The traditional means to look after elderly has resulted in 255,000 reported falls (only within UK). This not only resulted in extensive aftercare needs and surgeries (summing up to £4.4 billion) but also in added suffering and increased mortality. In such circumstances, the technology can greatly assist by offering automated solutions for the problem at hand. The proposed work offers an Internet of things (IoT) based patient bed-exit monitoring system in clinical settings, capable of generating a timely response to alert the healthcare workers and elderly by analyzing the wireless data streams, acquired through wearable sensors. This work analyzes two different datasets obtained from divergent families of sensing technologies, i.e., smartphone-based accelerometer and radio frequency identification (RFID) based accelerometer. The findings of the proposed system show good efficacy in monitoring the bed-exit and discriminate other ambulating activities. Furthermore, the proposed work manages to keep the average end-to-end system delay (i.e., communications of sensed data to Data Sink (DS)/Control Center (CC) + machine-based feature extraction and class identification + feedback communications to a relevant healthcare worker/elderly) below 1 10 th of a second

Neuroblastomas with chromosome 11q loss and single copy MYCN comprise a biologically distinct group of tumours with adverse prognosis

Neuroblastoma is a heterogeneous tumour and its effective clinical management is dependent on accurate prognostic evaluation. In approximately 25% of patients amplification of the MYCN oncogene is known to be associated with a poor outcome. In order to identify additional molecular markers with prognostic potential in non-MYCN-amplified neuroblastomas, we looked for a correlation between clinical outcome and loss of heterozygosity (LOH) on four chromosomes that frequently show alteration in neuroblastoma (chromosomes 3, 4, 11 and 14). Chromosome 11q loss (with frequent parallel loss of chromosomes 3p, 4p and/or 14q) was found exclusively in tumours without MYCN amplification and was significantly associated with poor event-free survival. The 2-year event-free survival rate for 11q LOH cases was 30%, compared to 34% for MYCN-amplified cases and 100% for cases without these abnormalities. While 11q LOH was associated predominantly with advanced-stage disease, 2 cases with low-stage disease and 11q LOH both suffered relapses. We conclude that chromosome 11q loss defines a biologically distinct group of tumours without MYCN amplification that appear to have potential for aggressive metastatic growth. Thus this genetic alteration may be an important new prognostic marker in neuroblastoma. © 2001 Cancer Research Campaign http://www.bjcancer.co

Contamination by respiratory viruses on outer surface of medical masks used by hospital healthcare workers

© 2019 The Author(s). Background: Medical masks are commonly used in health care settings to protect healthcare workers (HCWs) from respiratory and other infections. Airborne respiratory pathogens may settle on the surface of used masks layers, resulting in contamination. The main aim of this study was to study the presence of viruses on the surface of medical masks. Methods: Two pilot studies in laboratory and clinical settings were carried out to determine the areas of masks likely to contain maximum viral particles. A laboratory study using a mannequin and fluorescent spray showed maximum particles concentrated on upper right, middle and left sections of the medical masks. These findings were confirmed through a small clinical study. The main study was then conducted in high-risk wards of three selected hospitals in Beijing China. Participants (n = 148) were asked to wear medical masks for a shift (6-8 h) or as long as they could tolerate. Used samples of medical masks were tested for presence of respiratory viruses in upper sections of the medical masks, in line with the pilot studies. Results: Overall virus positivity rate was 10.1% (15/148). Commonly isolated viruses from masks samples were adenovirus (n = 7), bocavirus (n = 2), respiratory syncytial virus (n = 2) and influenza virus (n = 2). Virus positivity was significantly higher in masks samples worn for > 6 h (14.1%, 14/99 versus 1.2%, 1/49, OR 7.9, 95% CI 1.01-61.99) and in samples used by participants who examined > 25 patients per day (16.9%, 12/71 versus 3.9%, 3/77, OR 5.02, 95% CI 1.35-18.60). Most of the participants (83.8%, 124/148) reported at least one problem associated with mask use. Commonly reported problems were pressure on face (16.9%, 25/148), breathing difficulty (12.2%, 18/148), discomfort (9.5% 14/148), trouble communicating with the patient (7.4%, 11/148) and headache (6.1%, 9/148). Conclusion: Respiratory pathogens on the outer surface of the used medical masks may result in self-contamination. The risk is higher with longer duration of mask use (> 6 h) and with higher rates of clinical contact. Protocols on duration of mask use should specify a maximum time of continuous use, and should consider guidance in high contact settings. Viruses were isolated from the upper sections of around 10% samples, but other sections of masks may also be contaminated. HCWs should be aware of these risks in order to protect themselves and people around them

Treatment variables associated with outcome in emergency department patients with suspected sepsis.

BACKGROUND: Early treatment is advocated in the management of patients with suspected sepsis in the emergency department (ED). We sought to understand the association between the ED treatments and outcome in patients admitted with suspected sepsis. The treatments studied were: (i) the time to antibiotics, where time zero is the time the patient was booked in which is also the triage time; (ii) the volume of intravenous fluid (IVF); (iii) mean arterial pressure (MAP) after 2000 ml of IVF and (iv) the final MAP in the ED. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of the ED database of patients aged ≥ 18 year who met two SIRS criteria or one red flag sepsis criteria on arrival, received intravenous antibiotics for a suspected infection and admitted between 8th February 2016 and 31st August 2017. The primary outcome measure was all-cause in-hospital mortality. The four treatments stated above were controlled for severity of illness and subject to multivariate logistic regression and Cox proportional-hazard regression to identify independent predictors of mortality. RESULTS: Of the 2,066 patients studied 272 (13.2%) died in hospital. The median time to antibiotics was 48 (interquartile range 30-82) minutes. The time to antibiotics was an independent predictor of mortality only in those who developed refractory hypotension (RH); antibiotics administered more than 55 mins after arrival was associated with an odds ratio (OR) for mortality of 2.75 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.22-6.14]. The number-needed-to-treat was 4. IVF > 2000 ml (95% CI > 500- > 2100), except in RH, and a MAP ≤ 66 mmHg after 2000 ml of IVF were also independent predictors of mortality. The OR for mortality of IVF > 2,000 ml in non-RH was 1.80 (95% CI 1.15-2.82); Number-needed-to-harm was 14. The OR for morality for a MAP ≤ 66 mmHg after 2000 ml of IVF was 3.42 (95% CI 2.10-5.57). A final MAP  2000 ml (except in RH) and a MAP ≤ 66 mmHg after 2000 ml of IVF were also independent predictors of mortality