Evolution of Models to Support Community and Policy Action with Science: Balancing Pastoral Livelihoods and Wildlife Conservation in Savannas of East Africa

We developed a “continual engagement” model to better integrate knowledge from policy makers, communities, and researchers with the goal of promoting more effective action to balance poverty alleviation and wildlife conservation in 4 pastoral ecosystems of East Africa. The model involved the creation of a core boundary-spanning team, including community facilitators, a policy facilitator, and transdisciplinary researchers, responsible for linking with a wide range of actors from local to global scales. Collaborative researcher–facilitator community teams integrated local and scientific knowledge to help communities and policy makers improve herd quality and health, expand biodiversity payment schemes, develop land-use plans, and fully engage together in pastoral and wildlife policy development. This model focused on the creation of hybrid scientific–local knowledge highly relevant to community and policy maker needs. The facilitation team learned to be more effective by focusing on noncontroversial livelihood issues before addressing more difficult wildlife issues, using strategic and periodic engagement with most partners instead of continual engagement, and reducing costs by providing new scientific information only when deemed essential. We conclude by examining the role of facilitation in redressing asymmetries in power in researcher–community–policy maker teams, the role of individual values and character in establishing trust, and how to sustain knowledge-action links when project funding ends

Climigration? Population and climate change in Arctic Alaska

Residents of towns and villages in Arctic Alaska live on “the front line of climate change.” Some communities face immediate threats from erosion and flooding associated with thawing permafrost, increasing river flows, and reduced sea ice protection of shorelines. The term climigration, referring to migration caused by climate change, originally was coined for these places. Although initial applications emphasized the need for government relocation policies, it has elsewhere been applied more broadly to encompass unplanned migration as well. Some historical movements have been attributed to climate change, but closer study tends to find multiple causes, making it difficult to quantify the climate contribution. Clearer attribution might come from comparisons of migration rates among places that are similar in most respects, apart from known climatic impacts. We apply this approach using annual 1990–2014 time series on 43 Arctic Alaska towns and villages. Within-community time plots show no indication of enhanced out-migration from the most at-risk communities. More formally, there is no significant difference between net migration rates of at-risk and other places, testing several alternative classifications. Although climigration is not detectable to date, growing risks make either planned or unplanned movements unavoidable in the near future

Using Coupled Simulation Models to Link Pastoral Decision Making and Ecosystem Services

Historically, pastoral people were able to more freely use the services their semi-arid and arid ecosystems provide, and they adapted to changes in ways that improved their well-being. More recently, their ability to adapt has been constrained due to changes from within and from outside their communities. To compare possible responses by pastoral communities, we modeled ecosystem services and tied those services to decisions that people make at the household level. We created an agent-based household model called DECUMA, joined that model with the ecosystem model SAVANNA, and applied the linked models to southeastern Kajiado District, Kenya. The structure of the new agent-based model and linkages between the models are described, and then we demonstrate the model results using a scenario that shows changes in Maasai well-being in response to drought. We then explore two additional but related scenarios, quantifying household well-being if access to a grazing reserve is lost and if access is lost but those most affected are compensated. In the second scenario, households in group ranches abutting the grazing reserve that lost access had large declines in livestock populations, less food energy from animal sources, increased livestock sales and grain purchases, and increased need for supplemental foods. Households in more distant areas showed no changes or had increases in livestock populations because their herds had fewer animals with which to compete for forage. When households neighboring the grazing reserve were compensated for the lease of the lands they had used, they prospered. We describe some benefits and limitations of the agent-based approach

Quantifying Declines in Livestock Due to Land Subdivision

In Kajiado District, Kenya, ranches held communally by Maasai are being subdivided into individually owned parcels. Livestock owners know that herds on parcels that are too small cannot be viable, but the decline in the capacity of parcels to support livestock has not been quantified. We used ecosystem modeling to represent the effects of subdivision as Maasai group ranches were divided into 196, 10, 5, 3, and 1 km2 parcels. Within the spatially explicit, process-based SAVANNA ecosystem model, we used maps that constrained the movements of livestock to be within parcels. We also modeled cooperative grazing associations, giving groups of herders access to parcels composed of dispersed or contiguous 1 km2 parcels. Vegetatively productive areas had higher carrying capacities when isolated because resident animals did not compete with animals moving in seasonally from other areas. In a ranch of low but heterogeneous productivity, we saw a steady decline in capacity under subdivision, until 25% fewer livestock could be supported on the ranch of 1 km2 parcels relative to the intact ranch. On a ranch with both low productivity and heterogeneity, 20% fewer livestock were supported when parcels were still 10 km2. The most productive ranch studied saw small population changes with subdivision. Participation in grazing associations was helpful in the ranch intermediate in productivity and heterogeneity, but not other ranches. Subdivision of Kajiado lands might be inevitable, but our results show the relative benefits to stakeholders if land owners and policy makers act to maintain open or flexible access to individually held parcels.  The Rangeland Ecology & Management archives are made available by the Society for Range Management and the University of Arizona Libraries. Contact [email protected] for further information.Migrated from OJS platform August 2020Legacy DOIs that must be preserved: 10.2458/azu_rangelands_v58i5_thornto

Multiplex Social Ecological Network Analysis Reveals How Social Changes Affect Community Robustness More Than Resource Depletion

Network analysis provides a powerful tool to analyze complex influences of social and ecological structures on community and household dynamics. Most network studies of social–ecological systems use simple, undirected, unweighted networks. We analyze multiplex, directed, and weighted networks of subsistence food flows collected in three small indigenous communities in Arctic Alaska potentially facing substantial economic and ecological changes. Our analysis of plausible future scenarios suggests that changes to social relations and key households have greater effects on community robustness than changes to specific wild food resources

Coping strategies in livestock-dependent households in East and southern Africa: a synthesis of four case studies

Integrated assessment seeks to combine models of the ecological as well as the social system to allow different scenarios to be tested in terms of their likely impacts on ecological functioning and household well-being. We outline such work undertaken in four case studies in East and southern Africa: pastoralist communities in northern Tanzania, agro-pastoralists in southern Kenya, communal and commercial ranchers in South Africa, and mixed crop-livestock farmers in western Kenya. Results from these case studies are synthesised to test the hypothesis that households’ capacity to adapt in the face of increasing external stresses is governed by flexibility in livelihood options. The results support this hypothesis. There is considerable variation in how households in these places cope with external stresses. Options include intensification, diversification, and increasing off-farm economic activities, and these depend on household objectives and attitudes as well as on access to natural resources, inputs and output markets. The results also indicate that generally it is the poorer households that can gain the most from implementing such options for coping and managing risk. Quantifying likely household and ecosystem impacts of different options is a crucial step in targeting appropriate technology, policy and adaptation interventions in the face of considerable system changes. We conclude with some research needs to improve integrated assessment tools that may allow us to represent more realistically the highly complex decision-making milieu of householders in sub-Saharan Africa who are dependent on ecosystem goods and services for a large part of their livelihoods