EXCESSIVE MORTALITY IN WINTER IN MOSCOW AND ITS ECONOMIC VALUE DURING THE YEARS 2007-2014

Aim. To study the excessive mortality during the winter (EMW) from all causes and CVD, monthly values of mortality; to evaluate social and economic harm due to EMW in Moscow.Material and methods. The calculation of EMW (%) was done for Moscow by the mortality from all causes and from CVD by a special equation. For monthly values of mortality we estimated the average range per month by absolute number of the deaths — absolute parameters of mortality by every analyzed year were ranged from 1 to 12, and mean value of the range was calculated.Results. Mean EMW per 8 years was 5,1%, for CVD higher — 8,8%. In Moscow there is an influence of the anomaly heat of 2010 — EMW was 4,5% from all causes, from CVD — 6,0%. Maximum number of deaths was registered in January and march. Gross EH by 2007-2013 from EMW was 7,9 billion rubles in Moscow.Conclusion. A significant part of EMW are the deaths from CVD. The amount of EH from EMW has confirmed the shown previously relation from two factors — number of deaths and size of GRP in region. For Moscow — the capital of Russia, having the highest values of economic development, the harm, that is quite significant, grounds the necessity of investments into excessive mortality and search for effective by decrease of mortality in winter time

HEALTHCARE RESOURCES UTILIZATION AND TEMPORARY DISABILITY IN POPULATION AGED 50-64 ACCORDING TO THE EPIDEMIOLOGICAL ESSE-RF STUDY

Aim. To analyze health care resource utilization and temporary disability in people of pre-retirement age in the Russian population.Material and methods. The analysis was carried out on the basis of the ESSE-RF study materials (13 regions of the RF). Standard epidemiological survey methods and evaluation criteria were used. The analysis included results of a survey of the ESSE-RF study participants about health care resource utilization and temporary disability (TD) during 12 months before the survey. The following characteristics were ascertained: a number and reasons of outpatient visits for medical assistance, hospital admissions (including duration of in-hospital treatment), emergency calls and temporary disability (a number of days and cases), their mean number per one study participant, mean number of cases and days of TD per 100 working participants, associations with social-demographic parameters, risk factors, chronic non-communicable diseases, stress and anxiety levels by the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS).Results. A total of 8334 people aged 50-64 years were examined: men – 2784 (33%) and women – 5550 (67%). A share of the hospitalized (at least one time) was 11% in the age group of 50-54 years, 12% – in the age group of 55-59 years and by the age of 60-64 this indicator increased to 15%. 20% of the participants at least one time were admitted to hospital and/or called an ambulance. A share of people who had utilized health care resources at least one time was increasing with age. Unemployed people were hospitalized more frequently than employed ones. Number of chronic non-communicable diseases correlated with the probability of hospitalization and/or emergency call. Categories 2 and 3 of disability, presence of diabetes mellitus, ischemic heart disease and hypertension were statistically significantly associated with the probability of hospitalization and/or emergency call. Smoking did not increase the probability of hospitalization and/or emergency call in comparison with absence of this risk factor, at that, people who had given up smoking were 1.3 times more likely to be hospitalized than non-smokers. People with low and moderate alcohol consumption were hospitalized and called an ambulance significantly less often than those who abstained from alcohol. Clinically significant anxiety increased the probability of hospital admission and/or emergency call as compared to people without this factor by the HADS. Subclinical and clinically significant anxiety, mean and high levels of stress were associated with the probability of hospitalization and/or emergency call. Number of TD days turned out to be rather low - 0.3 day per 1 working man and 0.4 day - per 1 working woman, this index did not significantly differ with age.Conclusion. So, pre-retirement age (50-64 years) is characterized by increase in health care resource utilization due to health state worsening. At the same time significant share of people of this age (40%) did not seek medical help. These 40% of pre-retirement age people can be possible reserve for health state improvement by means of their active involvement in preventive activity of primary health care system (the study had been conducted before the preventive medical examination program starting)

Survival prognosis in individuals with a high spatial QRS-T angle

Aim. To evaluate medium-term survival without irreversible and fatal cardiovascular events in individuals with a high spatial QRS-T angle (sQRS-Ta) from a regional Russian sample.Material and methods. We analyzed 1394 electrocardiographic records from a random regional sample of men (30%) and women aged 25-64, which were included in the ESSE-RF1 study. Women were on average 5 years older than men, but there was no difference in mean age in the 45-64 groups. The follow-up period lasted 7 year; 26 irreversible events (cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction or stroke) and 63 composite endpoints (CEs) (irreversible event or heart failure progression or revascularization) were identified. Irreversible events and composite endpoint in men were noted more often than in women as follows: 3,7% vs 1,1% (p=0,003) and 6,9% vs 3,6% (p=0,01), respectively. sQRS-Ta was estimated as the angle between the integral QRS and T vectors in the orthogonal leads. Survival was assessed by Kaplan-Meier curves using a log-rank test. Differences were considered significant at p≤0,05. Results. Sex groups did not differ in mean sQRS-Ta. sQRS-Ta ≥90o was considered to be increased. The divergence of survival curves by the end of follow-up period in men with increased sQRS-Ta relative to men with sQRS-Ta <900 was greater than in women as follows: 0,88 vs 0,96 for CE (p=0,0026) and 0,93 vs 0,96 for irreversible events (p=0,009); in women — 0,94 vs 0,98 for CE only (p=0,0016). Initial event and CE in men with increased sQRS-Ta occurred earlier than those with normal sQRS-Ta and then in women with increased sQRS-Ta. There were no differences in the frequency of sQRS-Ta increase among 45-64-year-old men and women, but irreversible events in men with increased sQRS-Ta occurred 5 times more often than in women. According to two-stage logistic regression, the probability of irreversible event in men is 4,35 times higher than in women (p=0,0002). After adjusting for sex, in individuals with increased sQRS-Ta, it is 2,75 times higher than in individuals with sQRS-Ta <90o (p=0,015).Conclusion. In men with increased sQRS-Ta (≥90o), survival without irreversible and fatal cardiovascular events was worse, and life expectancy was shorter than in men with normal sQRS-Ta or women with increased sQRS-Ta. The prognosis of irreversible events was significantly affected by male sex and sQRS-Ta increase

Worldwide trends in hypertension prevalence and progress in treatment and control from 1990 to 2019: a pooled analysis of 1201 population-representative studies with 104 million participants

Background Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30-79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age. Findings The number of people aged 30-79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306-359) million women and 317 (292-344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584-668) million women and 652 (604-698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55-62) of women and 49% (46-52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43-51) of women and 38% (35-41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20-27) for women and 18% (16-21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including Costa Rica, Taiwan, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, and Iran. Interpretation Improvements in the detection, treatment, and control of hypertension have varied substantially across countries, with some middle-income countries now outperforming most high-income nations. The dual approach of reducing hypertension prevalence through primary prevention and enhancing its treatment and control is achievable not only in high-income countries but also in low-income and middle-income settings. Copyright (C) 2021 World Health Organization; licensee Elsevier

Myocardial infarction in the population of some Russian regions and its prognostic value

Aim. To study the prevalence of myocardial infarction (MI) in the population of Russian regions and its contribution to cardiovascular events.Material and methods. The analysis material was representative samples of the population aged 35-64 years from 11 Russian regions,  examined within the multicenter study “Epidemiology of Cardiovascular Diseases and their Risk Factors in Regions  of Russian Federation”. The response rate was about 80%. The study used a community-based  systematic stratified multiply random sample. During the study, information on prior MI was obtained using a standard questionnaire. Anthropometry and measurement of blood pressure (BP) and heart rate (HR) with an automatic BP monitor were performed. Resting electrocardiography (ECG) was performed, followed by Minnesota coding. Major and minor QQS waves and STT segments were considered as ischemic  ECG abnormalities. Biochemical parameters were determined using an Arkhitect 000 Clinical Chemistry Analyzer. The median prospective  follow-up was 6,21 [5,25; 6,75] years. A composite endpoint (CE) was analyzed, including cardiovascular death and non-fatal MI. During the follow-up period, 363 all-cause deaths were detected,  of which 134 were from cardiovascular diseases, while 196 — CEs. Statistical analysis was carried out in R 3.6.1 environment.Results. The MI prevalence among the Russian population was 2,9%; 5,2% for men and 1,5% for women,  increasing  with age. Men with prior MI were  more likely to take statins and beta-blockers  than women as follows: 39,0% vs 25,6% and 29,3% vs 27,1%, respectively. MI newly diagnosed within the follow-up  period was associated with the following risk factors (RFs): smoking, increased BP, HR, triglycerides and glucose.  For individuals with prior MI, a significant relationship was found only with smoking.  Multiple comparison  of the contribution of RFs, ECG abnormalities,  and prior MI showed  that the inclusion of ischemic ECG abnormalities in the analysis significantly increases  the risk of cardiovascular events in individuals without prior MI compared with individuals without both MI and ECG changes.  A high CE risk was noted in patients with prior MI: relative risk (RR), 4,73 (2,92-7,65); the addition of ischemic ECG abnormalities increased the RR to 5,75 (3,76-8,8).Conclusion. The RR of CEs in patients  with prior MI without or with ischemic ECG changes  is 4,73 and 5,75 times higher than in patients without MI and ECG abnormalities. The risk factors  identified  in this case cannot explain such an increase  in CEs. It is obvious  that people  with prior MI need  rehabilitation. The presence of RFs in patients with newly diagnosed  MI indicates insufficient primary prevention, which suggests  that strengthening preventive measures to eliminate conventional risk factors in patients with newly diagnosed  MI will help reduce the risk of recurrent MI or cardiovascular  mortality

Non-High Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol: A Modern Benchmark for Assessing Lipid Metabolism Disorders

Aim. To perform a population analysis of Non-High Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol level (non-HDL-c) in Russian population and to evaluate its association with cardiovascular events.Material and Methods. The material consisted of results obtained from 11 regions of the ESSE-RF1 Study and from 4 regions of the ESSE-RF2 Study. Study protocols were identical. The studies were performed in 2012-2014 and 2017, respectively. Endpoints were assessed in 19041 people aged 35-64 years. The median follow-up was 6.5 years in ESSE RF (1) and 3.8 years in ESSE RF(2). Analysis was performed for three lipid variables: total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and non-HDLC in two samples: the general population sample and the same sample without individuals with coronary heart disease (CHD), myocardial infarction (MI) and/or stroke history and not taking statins (the population sample of "without a history of cardiovascular diseases [CVD]". The analysis of nonlinear associations was performed using the generalized additive Cox model. The combined cardiovascular endpoint was represented by cardiovascular death and nonfatal MI and stroke. Traditional and laboratory FRs, socio-demographic parameters were analyzed. The significance level for all tested hypotheses was set to be 0.05.Results. The prevalence of elevated non-HDL-C level (>3.7 mmol/l) was found to be 74.6%. No gender differences were found: there was 74.6% for men and 74.5% for women. Both mean values and prevalence of elevated non-HDL-C were increased with age in women, and its level was slightly decreased in men after 55 years old. Almost all analyzed RFs were significantly associated with elevated non-HDL-C in these two population samples. In both samples elevated total CH and elevated LDL-C were associated with all-cause mortality after correction for all RFs. On the contrary, the non-HDL-C was associated with CVD combined end pints. It has been shown that the risk of these end points increases uniformly with increase in levels of non HDL cholesterol, no nonlinear associations were found.Conclusion. The results of a population-based analysis of non-HDL-C performed in the Russian population for the first time confirmed that elevated non-HDL-C levels contribute significantly to determining the risk of cardiovascular events in the medium term. It can be assumed that the new risk scales (SCORE2 and SCORE OP) proposed by the European Society of Cardiology and the European Society of Preventive Cardiology, which include non-HDL C instead of TC, will allow adequate assessment of 10-year cardiovascular risk for Russians. However, continued monitoring of endpoints in order to obtain stable associations is required

Diminishing benefits of urban living for children and adolescents’ growth and development

Optimal growth and development in childhood and adolescence is crucial for lifelong health and well-being1–6. Here we used data from 2,325 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight from 71 million participants, to report the height and body-mass index (BMI) of children and adolescents aged 5–19 years on the basis of rural and urban place of residence in 200 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020. In 1990, children and adolescents residing in cities were taller than their rural counterparts in all but a few high-income countries. By 2020, the urban height advantage became smaller in most countries, and in many high-income western countries it reversed into a small urban-based disadvantage. The exception was for boys in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and in some countries in Oceania, south Asia and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. In these countries, successive cohorts of boys from rural places either did not gain height or possibly became shorter, and hence fell further behind their urban peers. The difference between the age-standardized mean BMI of children in urban and rural areas was <1.1 kg m–2 in the vast majority of countries. Within this small range, BMI increased slightly more in cities than in rural areas, except in south Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and some countries in central and eastern Europe. Our results show that in much of the world, the growth and developmental advantages of living in cities have diminished in the twenty-first century, whereas in much of sub-Saharan Africa they have amplified

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

Background Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5–19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For schoolaged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median). Findings From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness. Interpretation The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesit

Worldwide trends in hypertension prevalence and progress in treatment and control from 1990 to 2019: a pooled analysis of 1201 population-representative studies with 104 million participants

Background Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30–79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age. Findings The number of people aged 30–79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306–359) million women and 317 (292–344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584–668) million women and 652 (604–698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55–62) of women and 49% (46–52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43–51) of women and 38% (35–41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20–27) for women and 18% (16–21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including Costa Rica, Taiwan, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, and Iran. Interpretation Improvements in the detection, treatment, and control of hypertension have varied substantially across countries, with some middle-income countries now outperforming most high-income nations. The dual approach of reducing hypertension prevalence through primary prevention and enhancing its treatment and control is achievable not only in high-income countries but also in low-income and middle-income settings. Funding WHO

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

Background Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5–19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI 2 SD above the median). Findings From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness. Interpretation The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesity. Funding UK Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation (Research England), UK Research and Innovation (Innovate UK), and European Union