Environmental exposure to arsenic, AS3MT polymorphism and prevalence of diabetes in Mexico

Exposure to arsenic in drinking water is associated with increased prevalence of diabetes. We previously reported an association of diabetes and urinary concentration of dimethylarsinite (DMAsIII), a toxic product of arsenic methylation by arsenic ( +3 oxidation state) methyltransferase (AS3MT). Here we examine associations between AS3MT polymorphism, arsenic metabolism and diabetes. Fasting blood glucose, oral glucose tolerance and self-reported diagnoses were used to identify diabetic individuals. Inorganic arsenic and its metabolites were measured in urine. Genotyping analysis focused on six polymorphic sites of AS3MT. Individuals with M287T and G4965C polymorphisms had higher levels of urinary DMAsIII and were more frequently diabetic than the respective wild-type carriers, although the excess was not statistically significant. Odds ratios were 11.4 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.2–58.8) and 8.8 (95% CI 1.6–47.3) for the combined effects of arsenic exposure >75th percentile and 287T and 4965C genotypes, respectively. Carriers of 287T and 4965C may produce more DMAsIII and be more likely to develop diabetes when exposed to arsenic

Exposure to arsenic in drinking water is associated with increased prevalence of diabetes: a cross-sectional study in the Zimapan and Lagunera Regions in Mexico

Abstract Background Human exposures to inorganic arsenic (iAs) have been linked to an increased risk of diabetes mellitus. Recent laboratory studies showed that methylated trivalent metabolites of iAs may play key roles in the diabetogenic effects of iAs. Our study examined associations between chronic exposure to iAs in drinking water, metabolism of iAs, and prevalence of diabetes in arsenicosis-endemic areas of Mexico. Methods We used fasting blood glucose (FBG), fasting plasma insulin (FPI), oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), and insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) to characterize diabetic individuals. Arsenic levels in drinking water and urine were determined to estimate exposure to iAs. Urinary concentrations of iAs and its trivalent and pentavalent methylated metabolites were measured to assess iAs metabolism. Associations between diabetes and iAs exposure or urinary metabolites of iAs were estimated by logistic regression with adjustment for age, sex, hypertension and obesity. Results The prevalence of diabetes was positively associated with iAs in drinking water (OR 1.13 per 10 ppb, p < 0.01) and with the concentration of dimethylarsinite (DMAsIII) in urine (OR 1.24 per inter-quartile range, p = 0.05). Notably, FPI and HOMA-IR were negatively associated with iAs exposure (β -2.08 and -1.64, respectively, p < 0.01), suggesting that the mechanisms of iAs-induced diabetes differ from those underlying type-2 diabetes, which is typically characterized by insulin resistance. Conclusions Our study confirms a previously reported, but frequently questioned, association between exposure to iAs and diabetes, and is the first to link the risk of diabetes to the production of one of the most toxic metabolites of iAs, DMAsIII

Association of AS3MT polymorphisms and the risk of premalignant arsenic skin lesions

Exposure to naturally occurring inorganic arsenic (iAs), primarily from contaminated drinking water, is considered one of the top environmental health threats worldwide. Arsenic (+3 oxidation state) methyltransferase (AS3MT) is the key enzyme in the biotransformation pathway of iAs. AS3MT catalyzes the transfer of a methyl group from S-adenosyl-L-methionine to trivalent arsenicals, resulting in the production of methylated (MAs) and dimethylated arsenicals (DMAs). MAs is a susceptibility factor for iAs-induced toxicity. In this study, we evaluated the association of the polymorphism in AS3MT gene with iAs metabolism and with the presence of arsenic (As) premalignant skin lesions. This is a case-control study of 71 cases with skin lesions and 51 controls without skin lesions recruited from a iAs endemic area in Mexico. We measured urinary As metabolites, differentiating the trivalent and pentavalent arsenical species, using the hydride generation atomic absorption spectrometry. In addition, the study subjects were genotyped to analyze three single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), A-477G, T14458C (nonsynonymus SNP; Met287Thr), and T35587C, in the AS3MT gene. We compared the frequencies of the AS3MT alleles, genotypes, and haplotypes in individuals with and without skin lesions. Marginal differences in the frequencies of the Met287Thr genotype were identified between individuals with and without premalignant skin lesions (p=0.055): individuals carrying the C (TC+CC) allele (Thr) were at risk [odds ratio=4.28; 95% confidence interval (1.0–18.5)]. Also, individuals with C allele of Met287Thr displayed greater percentage of MAs in urine and decrease in the percentage of DMAs. These findings indicate that Met287Thr influences the susceptibility to premalignant As skin lesions and might be at increased risk for other adverse health effects of iAs exposure

Exposure to arsenic in drinking water is associated with increased prevalence of diabetes: a cross-sectional study in the Zimapán and Lagunera regions in Mexico

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Human exposures to inorganic arsenic (iAs) have been linked to an increased risk of diabetes mellitus. Recent laboratory studies showed that methylated trivalent metabolites of iAs may play key roles in the diabetogenic effects of iAs. Our study examined associations between chronic exposure to iAs in drinking water, metabolism of iAs, and prevalence of diabetes in arsenicosis-endemic areas of Mexico.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used fasting blood glucose (FBG), fasting plasma insulin (FPI), oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), and insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) to characterize diabetic individuals. Arsenic levels in drinking water and urine were determined to estimate exposure to iAs. Urinary concentrations of iAs and its trivalent and pentavalent methylated metabolites were measured to assess iAs metabolism. Associations between diabetes and iAs exposure or urinary metabolites of iAs were estimated by logistic regression with adjustment for age, sex, hypertension and obesity.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The prevalence of diabetes was positively associated with iAs in drinking water (OR 1.13 per 10 ppb, p < 0.01) and with the concentration of dimethylarsinite (DMAs^III) in urine (OR 1.24 per inter-quartile range, p = 0.05). Notably, FPI and HOMA-IR were negatively associated with iAs exposure (β -2.08 and -1.64, respectively, p < 0.01), suggesting that the mechanisms of iAs-induced diabetes differ from those underlying type-2 diabetes, which is typically characterized by insulin resistance.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our study confirms a previously reported, but frequently questioned, association between exposure to iAs and diabetes, and is the first to link the risk of diabetes to the production of one of the most toxic metabolites of iAs, DMAs^III.</p

Tendencias de la investigación en Ingeniería Ambiental

Esta obra incluye las memorias del Simposio “Tendencias de la Investigación en Ingeniería Ambiental”, organizado por el Grupo de Investigaciones y Mediciones Ambientales (GEMA), realizado en la Universidad de Medellín en agosto de 2007. El texto está conformado por 14 capítulos agrupados en cuatro partes. En la primera se agrupan los trabajos relacionados con la calidad y alternativas de tratamiento del agua e hidráulica ambiental (capítulos 1 al 4). La segunda trata temas relacionados con la contaminación atmosférica y calidad del aire (capítulos 5 al 6). La tercera está relacionada con las tecnologías ambientales para la recuperación y conservación de suelos (capítulos 7 al 10) y la cuarta y última comprende las temáticas asociadas con la sostenibilidad ambiental del territorio (capítulos 11 al 14). En este sentido, estamos convencidos del valioso aporte que el libro dará a la comunidad científica, por ser este un documento de divulgación de resultados de investigación en ingeniería ambiental.PRÓLOGO............13 PRESENTACIÓN.............15 PRIMERA PARTE CALIDAD Y ALTERNATIVAS DE TRATAMIENTO DEL AGUA HIDRÁULICA AMBIENTAL Capítulo 1 PRETRATAMIENTO DE AGUAS RESIDUALES INDUSTRIALES MEDIANTE FOTO-FENTON SOLAR A ESCALA INDUSTRIAL ACOPLADO A BIOTRATAMIENTO CON FANGOS ACTIVOS INMOVILIZADOS Manuel Ignacio Maldonado, Isabel Oller, Wolfgang Gernjak, Sixto Malato 1.1 INTRODUCCIÓN............19 1.2 MATERIALES Y MÉTODOS.............21 1.2.1 Reactivos............21 1.2.2 Determinaciones analíticas.............22 1.2.3 Dispositivo experimental.............23 1.3 R ESULTADOS Y DISCUSIÓN............ 27 1.3.1 Tratamiento foto-Fenton solar............27 1.3.2 Biotratamiento mediante fangos activos inmovilizados.............33 1.3.3 Sistema combinado foto-Fenton solar-biológico aeróbico............35 1.4 CONCLUSIONES............. 42 Capítulo 2 DEGRADACIÓN DE LA ATRAZINA EN SOLUCIÓN ACUOSA USANDO RADIACIÓN UV Y PROCESOS DE OXIDACIÓN AVANZADA Margarita Hincapié, Gustavo Peñuela, Manuel I. Maldonado, Sixto Malato 2.1 INTRODUCCIÓN..............47 2.2 SECCIÓN EXPERIMENTAL..............53 2.2.1 Materiales.............53 2.2.2 Metodología...............53 2.2.3 Determinación analítica..............55 2.2.4 Determinación de la toxicidad...............55 2.3 R ESULTADOS Y DISCUSIÓN...............56 2.3.1 Hidrólisis..............56 2.3.2 Fotólisis y fotocatálisis con TiO2 Degussa P25.............56 2.3.3 Efecto de los agentes oxidantes peróxido de hidrógeno y persulfato de sodio en la fotocatálisis..............59 2.3.4 Proceso foto Fenton..............63 2.3.5 Evaluación de los aniones inorgánicos durante los dos tratamientos.............66 2.3.6 Cuantificación e identificación de los productos de degradación...............68 2.3.7 Evaluación de la toxicidad...............71 2.4 CONCLUSIONES...............74 Capítulo 3 HUMEDALES ARTIFICIALES PARA EL TRATAMIENTO DE AGUAS RESIDUALES Nazly E. Sánchez P., Gustavo A. Peñuela M., Juan C. Casas Z. 3.1 INTRODUCCIÓN...............81 3.2 MARCO TEÓRICO...............83 3.2.1 Humedales construidos para el tratamiento de aguas residuales..............84 3.2.2 Clasificación de los humedales.............85 3.2.3 Ventajas y desventajas de los humedales subsuperficiales..............87 3.2.4 Aspectos a considerar en los humedales subsuperficiales..............88 3.3 MATERIALES Y MÉTODOS.................89 3.3.1 Diseño y construcción de los humedales a escala piloto..............89 3.3.2 Componentes del agua residual sintética................90 3.3.3 Siembra y aclimatación de plantas............... 90 3.3.4 Muestreos............91 3.4 R ESULTADOS Y DISCUSIÓN..............91 3.4.1 pH..............91 3.4.2 Demanda bioquímica de oxígeno (DBO5)..............92 3.4.3 Carbono orgánico total (COT)................94 3.5 CONCLUSIONES................95 Capítulo 4 DESCRIPCIÓN DE LA DINÁMICA OCEANOGRÁFICA DEL GOLFO DE URABÁ UTILIZANDO MEDICIONES DE CAMPO Luis Javier Montoya Jaramillo, Francisco Mauricio Toro Botero 4.1 INTRODUCCIÓN...............103 4.2 DATOS Y MÉTODOS................107 4.3 DISCUSIÓN..............118 4.4 CONCLUSIONES............. 120 SEGUNDA PARTE CONTAMINACIÓN ATMOSFÉRICA Y CALIDAD DEL AIRE Capítulo 5 IMPACTO DE LAS MOTOCICLETAS EN LA CALIDAD DEL AIRE. ESTUDIO DE CASO: MONTERÍA Carlos Alberto Echeverri Londoño 5.1 INTRODUCCIÓN.................127 5.2 MATERIALES Y MÉTODOS...............131 5.2.1 S elección de los sitios de medición...............131 5.2.2 Período de medición................131 5.2.3 Parámetros seleccionados...............132 5.2.4 Equipos y materiales utilizados..............132 5.2.5 Índices de calidad del aire..............133 5.2.6 Legislación.............. 138 5.2.7 Inventario de emisiones..............141 5.3 RESULTADOS...............142 5.3.1 Calidad del aire y calidad acústica................142 5.3.2 Emisiones vehiculares.............150 5.3.3 Inventario de emisiones.............155 5.4 CONCLUSIONES.............. 158 5.5 RECOMENDACIONES............. 160 Capítulo 6 ROMPIMIENTO DE LA INVERSIÓN TÉRMICA EN EL VALLE DE ABURRÁ Ángela M. Rendón, José F. Jiménez, Carlos Palacio 6.1 INTRODUCCIÓN...............163 6.2 MEDICIÓN DE VARIABLES ATMOSFÉRICAS..............164 6.3 CAMPAÑAS DE MEDICIÓN.............165 6.4 RESULTADOS..............166 6.5 CONCLUSIONES................170 TERCERA PARTE TECNOLOGÍAS AMBIENTALES PARA LA RECUPERACIÓN Y CONSERVACIÓN DE SUELOS Capítulo 7 ESTRUCTURA MODELO DE LA PARTÍCULA FUNDAMENTAL DEL COMPOST Carlos E. Arroyave M., Carlos A. Peláez J. 7.1 INTRODUCCIÓN..............177 7.2 MATERIALES Y EQUIPOS.............178 7.2.1 Materias primas y planta de compostaje............178 7.2.2 Obtención de fracciones............. 182 7.2.3 Análisis estadístico.............184 7.3 RESULTADOS Y DISCUSIÓN.............184 7.3.1 Caracterización fisicoquímica del material de RSUsf...........184 7.3.2 Tamaño de partícula.............185 7.3.3 Análisis instrumental................187 7.3.4 Modelo de partícula..............194 7.4 CONCLUSIONES..............195 Capítulo 8 DEGRADACIÓN DE HEXACLOROCICLOHEXANO (HCH) CON HONGOS DE PODREDUMBRE DE LA MADERA Juan Carlos Quintero Díaz, Gumersindo Feijoo, Juan Manuel Lema 8.1 INTRODUCCIÓN..............199 8.2 MATERIALES Y MÉTODOS..............204 8.2.1 Microorganismos.............204 8.2.2 Ensayos de selección de los hongos de podredumbre de la madera.............204 8.2.3 Ensayos de degradación de HCH en medio líquido.............205 8.2.4 Ensayos de degradación de HCH en sobre suelo contaminado.............205 8.2.5 Extracción y análisis de los isómeros de HCH.............208 8.3 RESULTADOS Y DISCUSIÓN..............209 8.3.1 Selección de los microorganismos.............209 8.3.2 Degradación de HCH en medio líquido.............210 8.3.3 Degradación de HCH en fase sólida.............212 8.4 CONCLUSIONES.............. 220 Capítulo 9 AVANCES EN LA PROPAGACIÓN ASIMBIÓTICA IN VITRO DE ORQUÍDEAS CON ESPECIAL ÉNFASIS EN EL GÉNERO CATTLEYA Liliana R. Botero, María A. Jaramillo, Óscar O. Ossa R., Tatiana Saldarriaga F., Estefanía Ortiz R. 9.1 INTRODUCCIÓN...............227 9.2 MATERIALES Y MÉTODOS...............231 9.2.1 Evaluación de la metodología de desinfección de cápsulas de orquídeas.............231 9.2.2 Evaluación del efecto de un abono comercial y un suplemento comercial de banano............239 9.3 R ESULTADOS Y DISCUSIÓN..............242 9.3.1 Ensayos de desinfección...............242 9.3.2 Resultados del efecto de un abono comercial y un suplemento de banano comercial....246 9.4 CONCLUSIONES..............254 Capítulo 10 MOVILIDAD DEL BRAVONIL 720 (CLOROTALONILO) A TRAVÉS DE LA ZONA NO SATURADA Y SATURADA DE UN ACUÍFERO LIBRE SIMULADO Idalia Jacqueline López Sánchez, Gustavo Antonio Peñuela Mesa 10.1 INTRODUCCIÓN...............259 10.2 MATERIALES Y MÉTODOS...............261 10.3 RESULTADOS Y DISCUSIÓN..............269 10.4 CONCLUSIONES..............292 CUARTA PARTE SOSTENIBILIDAD AMBIENTAL DEL TERRITORIO Capítulo 11 LA RESPONSABILIDAD SOCIAL EMPRESARIAL COMO COMPONENTE DE SOSTENIBILIDAD AMBIENTAL John Fredy López Pérez 11.1 INTRODUCCIÓN...............299 11.2 UNA LECTURA DE LA SOSTENIBILIDAD AMBIENTAL DESDE UN PUNTO DE VISTA SOCIAL..............300 11.3 EL CONCEPTO DE LA RESPONSABILIDAD SOCIAL EMPRESARIAL...............303 11.4 LA RESPONSABILIDAD SOCIAL COMO ESPACIO PARA L A SOSTENIBILIDAD AMBIENTAL.............309 11.5 ESBOZOS DE UN CASO: EL SECTOR ELÉCTRICO COLOMBIANO..............311 11.6 CONCLUSIONES..............319 Capítulo 12 DETERMINACIÓN ESPACIAL DE ÁREAS DE IMPORTANCIA ESTRATÉGICA El caso de microcuencas abastecedoras de acueductos veredales del municipio de Medellín Joaquín Hincapié, Álvaro Lema 12.1 INTRODUCCIÓN................323 12.2 LA NOCIÓN DE ÁREA DE IMPORTANCIA ESTRATÉGICA...............325 12.3 LA IDEA DE LOS SERV ICIOS AMBIENTALES..............328 12.4 ESTRATEGIA METODOLÓGICA EN LA IDENTIFICACIÓN Y DETERMINACIÓN DE LAS ÁREAS DE IMPORTANCIA ESTRATÉGICA............332 12.5 L OS RESULTADOS DEL MODELO...............359 12.6 CONCLUSIONES............. 361 Capítulo 13 LA EDUCACIÓN AMBIENTAL EN LA TRANSFORMACIÓN DE LA CULTURA Luz Ángela Peña Marín, Alba Miriam Vergara Vargas 13.1 INTRODUCCIÓN..............369 13.2 APROXIMACIÓN CONCEPTUAL...............370 13.2.1 La reflexividad...............372 13.2.2 La construcción del otro...............374 13.2.3 El discurso.............. 372 13.2.4 La autonomía y la participación..............375 13.2.5 La educación ambiental y el desarrollo humano..............378 13.2.6 Base conceptual de la educación ambiental..............380 13.2.7 Contexto sociocultural..............382 13.2.8 Diagnóstico de la educación ambiental y la administración de los recursos naturales..............392 13.2.9 Criterios corporativos de educación ambiental.............394 13.3 CONCLUSIONES...............398 Capítulo 14 ENFOQUE CONCEPTUAL DE UN SISTEMA DE INDICADORES AMBIENTALES PARA LA EVALUACIÓN DE LOS POT: municipios del Valle de San Nicolás Oriente Antioqueño Carolina Arias Muñoz, Diana Elizabeth Valencia Londoño, Boris Puerto López 14.1 INTRODUCCIÓN...............401 14.2 ENFOQUE CONCEPTUAL DEL SISTEMA DE INDICADORES..............406 14.2.1 Primera aproximación: el enfoque de impacto ambiental..............406 14.2.2 Enfoque sistémico: de la sostenibilidad ambiental..............408 14.3 PROPUESTA FINAL DE INDICADORES E ÌNDICE DE SOSTENIBILIDAD AMBIENTAL DEL POT ISAPOT.............424 14.4 R EFLEXIONES FINALES..............42

Multi-resolution anisotropy studies of ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays detected at the Pierre Auger Observatory

We report a multi-resolution search for anisotropies in the arrival directions of cosmic rays detected at the Pierre Auger Observatory with local zenith angles up to $80^\circ$ and energies in excess of 4 EeV ($4 \times 10^{18}$ eV). This search is conducted by measuring the angular power spectrum and performing a needlet wavelet analysis in two independent energy ranges. Both analyses are complementary since the angular power spectrum achieves a better performance in identifying large-scale patterns while the needlet wavelet analysis, considering the parameters used in this work, presents a higher efficiency in detecting smaller-scale anisotropies, potentially providing directional information on any observed anisotropies. No deviation from isotropy is observed on any angular scale in the energy range between 4 and 8 EeV. Above 8 EeV, an indication for a dipole moment is captured; while no other deviation from isotropy is observed for moments beyond the dipole one. The corresponding $p$-values obtained after accounting for searches blindly performed at several angular scales, are $1.3 \times 10^{-5}$ in the case of the angular power spectrum, and $2.5 \times 10^{-3}$ in the case of the needlet analysis. While these results are consistent with previous reports making use of the same data set, they provide extensions of the previous works through the thorough scans of the angular scales.Comment: Published version. Added journal reference and DOI. Added Report Numbe

Ultrahigh-energy neutrino follow-up of Gravitational Wave events GW150914 and GW151226 with the Pierre Auger Observatory

On September 14, 2015 the Advanced LIGO detectors observed their first gravitational-wave (GW) transient GW150914. This was followed by a second GW event observed on December 26, 2015. Both events were inferred to have arisen from the merger of black holes in binary systems. Such a system may emit neutrinos if there are magnetic fields and disk debris remaining from the formation of the two black holes. With the surface detector array of the Pierre Auger Observatory we can search for neutrinos with energy above 100 PeV from point-like sources across the sky with equatorial declination from about -65 deg. to +60 deg., and in particular from a fraction of the 90% confidence-level (CL) inferred positions in the sky of GW150914 and GW151226. A targeted search for highly-inclined extensive air showers, produced either by interactions of downward-going neutrinos of all flavors in the atmosphere or by the decays of tau leptons originating from tau-neutrino interactions in the Earth's crust (Earth-skimming neutrinos), yielded no candidates in the Auger data collected within $\pm 500$ s around or 1 day after the coordinated universal time (UTC) of GW150914 and GW151226, as well as in the same search periods relative to the UTC time of the GW candidate event LVT151012. From the non-observation we constrain the amount of energy radiated in ultrahigh-energy neutrinos from such remarkable events.Comment: Published version. Added journal reference and DOI. Added Report Numbe

Calibration of the Logarithmic-Periodic Dipole Antenna (LPDA) Radio Stations at the Pierre Auger Observatory using an Octocopter

An in-situ calibration of a logarithmic periodic dipole antenna with a frequency coverage of 30 MHz to 80 MHz is performed. Such antennas are part of a radio station system used for detection of cosmic ray induced air showers at the Engineering Radio Array of the Pierre Auger Observatory, the so-called Auger Engineering Radio Array (AERA). The directional and frequency characteristics of the broadband antenna are investigated using a remotely piloted aircraft (RPA) carrying a small transmitting antenna. The antenna sensitivity is described by the vector effective length relating the measured voltage with the electric-field components perpendicular to the incoming signal direction. The horizontal and meridional components are determined with an overall uncertainty of 7.4^{+0.9}_{-0.3} % and 10.3^{+2.8}_{-1.7} % respectively. The measurement is used to correct a simulated response of the frequency and directional response of the antenna. In addition, the influence of the ground conductivity and permittivity on the antenna response is simulated. Both have a negligible influence given the ground conditions measured at the detector site. The overall uncertainties of the vector effective length components result in an uncertainty of 8.8^{+2.1}_{-1.3} % in the square root of the energy fluence for incoming signal directions with zenith angles smaller than 60{\deg}.Comment: Published version. Updated online abstract only. Manuscript is unchanged with respect to v2. 39 pages, 15 figures, 2 table

A Broad Assessment of Factors Determining Culicoides imicola Abundance: Modelling the Present and Forecasting Its Future in Climate Change Scenarios

Bluetongue (BT) is still present in Europe and the introduction of new serotypes from endemic areas in the African continent is a possible threat. Culicoides imicola remains one of the most relevant BT vectors in Spain and research on the environmental determinants driving its life cycle is key to preventing and controlling BT. Our aim was to improve our understanding of the biotic and abiotic determinants of C. imicola by modelling its present abundance, studying the spatial pattern of predicted abundance in relation to BT outbreaks, and investigating how the predicted current distribution and abundance patterns might change under future (2011–2040) scenarios of climate change according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. C. imicola abundance data from the bluetongue national surveillance programme were modelled with spatial, topoclimatic, host and soil factors. The influence of these factors was further assessed by variation partitioning procedures. The predicted abundance of C. imicola was also projected to a future period. Variation partitioning demonstrated that the pure effect of host and topoclimate factors explained a high percentage (>80%) of the variation. The pure effect of soil followed in importance in explaining the abundance of C. imicola. A close link was confirmed between C. imicola abundance and BT outbreaks. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to consider wild and domestic hosts in predictive modelling for an arthropod vector. The main findings regarding the near future show that there is no evidence to suggest that there will be an important increase in the distribution range of C. imicola; this contrasts with an expected increase in abundance in the areas where it is already present in mainland Spain. What may be expected regarding the future scenario for orbiviruses in mainland Spain, is that higher predicted C. imicola abundance may significantly change the rate of transmission of orbiviruses