Hydrologic Controls and Water Vulnerabilities in the Naryn River Basin, Kyrgyzstan: A Socio-Hydro Case Study of Water Stressors in Central Asia

Water vulnerabilities in Central Asia are affected by a complex combination of climate-sensitive water sources, trans-boundary political tensions, infrastructure deficiencies and a lack of water management organization from community to federal levels. This study aims to clarify the drivers of water stress across the 440 km Naryn River basin, headwater stem to the Syr Darya and the disappearing North Aral Sea. We use a combination of human and physical geography approaches to understand the meltwater-controlled hydrology of the system (using hydrochemical mixing models) as well as the human-water experience (via community surveys). Surveys indicate that current water stress is primarily a function of water management and access issues resulting from the clunky transition from Soviet era large-scale agriculture to post-Soviet small-plot farming. Snow and ice meltwaters play a dominant role in the surface and ground water supplies to downstream communities across the study's 4220 m elevation gradient, so future increases to water stress due to changes in volume and timing of water supply is likely given frozen waters' high sensitivities to warming temperatures. The combined influence of social, political and climate-induced pressures on water supplies in the Naryn basin suggest the need for proactive planning and adaptation strategies, and warrant concern for similar melt-sourced Central Asian watersheds

Hydrologic Controls and Water Vulnerabilities in the Naryn River Basin, Kyrgyzstan: A Socio-Hydro Case Study of Water Stressors in Central Asia

Water vulnerabilities in Central Asia are affected by a complex combination of climate-sensitive water sources, trans-boundary political tensions, infrastructure deficiencies and a lack of water management organization from community to federal levels. This study aims to clarify the drivers of water stress across the 440 km Naryn River basin, headwater stem to the Syr Darya and the disappearing North Aral Sea. We use a combination of human and physical geography approaches to understand the meltwater-controlled hydrology of the system (using hydrochemical mixing models) as well as the human-water experience (via community surveys). Surveys indicate that current water stress is primarily a function of water management and access issues resulting from the clunky transition from Soviet era large-scale agriculture to post-Soviet small-plot farming. Snow and ice meltwaters play a dominant role in the surface and ground water supplies to downstream communities across the study’s 4220 m elevation gradient, so future increases to water stress due to changes in volume and timing of water supply is likely given frozen waters’ high sensitivities to warming temperatures. The combined influence of social, political and climate-induced pressures on water supplies in the Naryn basin suggest the need for proactive planning and adaptation strategies, and warrant concern for similar melt-sourced Central Asian watersheds

The Radial Growth of Schrenk Spruce (Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey.) Records the Hydroclimatic Changes in the Chu River Basin over the Past 175 Years

The Chu River is one of the most important rivers in arid Central Asia. Its discharge is affected by climate change. Here, we establish a tree-ring chronology for the upper Chu River Basin and analyze the relationships between radial growth, climate, and discharge. The results show that the radial growth of Schrenk spruce (Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey.) is controlled by moisture. We also reconstruct a 175-year standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for the Chu River Basin. A comparison of the reconstructed and observed indices reveal that 39.5% of the variance occurred during the calibration period of 1952–2014. The SPEI reconstruction and discharge variability of the Chu River show consistent long-term change. They also show that the Chu River Basin became increasingly dry between the 1840s and the 1960s, with a significant drought during the 1970s. A long and rapid wetting period occurred between the 1970s and the 2000s, and was followed by increasing drought since 2004. The change in the SPEI in the Chu River Basin is consistent with records of long-term precipitation, SPEI and Palmer Drought Severity Indices (PDSI) in other proximate regions of the western Tianshan Mountains. The hydroclimatic change of the Chu River Basin may be associated with westerly wind. This study is helpful for disaster prevention and water resource management in arid central Asia

Current and future water balance of a mountain subcatchment of Issyk-Kul Lake, Tien Shan range, Kyrgyzstan

International audienc

Monitoring the annual geodetic mass balance of Bordu and Sary-Tor glaciers using UAV data

The geodetic mass balance of a glacier corresponds to glacier-wide volume changes, converted to mass changes using density assumptions. It is typically calculated by differencing multi-temporal digital elevation models. In this study, we show how the annual geodetic mass balance of a glacier can be derived from uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) data. The presented workflow is applied to two small- to medium-sized glaciers in the Kyrgyz Tien Shan (Central Asia): Bordu glacier and Sary-Tor glacier. The obtained geodetic mass balance is compared with the glaciological mass balance derived from a network of ablation stakes and snow pits. A previously calibrated mass-balance model is used to correct for the difference in acquisition dates. The results show that the determined geodetic mass balance matches closely with the glaciological mass balance. Besides, for both glaciers the geodetic mass balance does not seem to be particularly sensitive to the assumptions regarding volume-to-mass conversion. Therefore, our results demonstrate that UAVs can serve as a valuable instrument to quantify the annual geodetic mass balance and to validate the glaciological mass balance. The conventional glaciological mass-balance estimation often relies on interpolation and extrapolation methods, whereas UAVs offer the potential for direct data acquisition over the entire glacier surface

Mapping mean lake surface from satellite altimetry and GPS kinematic surveys

International audienceLake water height is a key variable in water cycle and climate change studies, which is achievable using satellite altimetry constellation. A method based on data processing of altimetry from several satellites has been developed to interpolate mean lake surface (MLS) over a set of 22 big lakes distributed on the Earth. It has been applied on nadir radar altimeters in Low Resolution Mode (LRM: Jason-3, Saral/AltiKa, CryoSat-2) in Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) mode (Sentinel-3A), and in SAR interferometric (SARin) mode (CryoSat-2), and on laser altimetry (ICESat). Validation of the method has been performed using a set of kinematic GPS height profiles from 18 field campaigns over the lake Issykkul, by comparison of altimetry's height at crossover points for the other lakes and using the laser altimetry on ICESat-2 mission. The precision reached ranges from 3 to 7 cm RMS (Root Mean Square) depending on the lakes. Currently, lake water level inferred from satellite altimetry is provided with respect to an ellipsoid. Ellipsoidal heights are converted into orthométric heights using geoid models interpolated along the satellite tracks. These global geoid models were inferred from geodetic satellite missions coupled with absolute and regional anomaly gravity data sets spread over the Earth. However, the spatial resolution of the current geoid models does not allow capturing short wavelength undulations that may reach decimeters in mountaineering regions or for rift lakes (Baikal, Issykkul, Malawi, Tanganika). We interpolate in this work the geoid height anomalies with three recent geoid models, the EGM2008, XGM2016 and EIGEN-6C4d, and compare them with the Mean Surface of 22 lakes calculated using satellite altimetry. Assuming that MLS mimics the local undulations of the geoid, our study shows that over a large set of lakes (in East Africa, Andean mountain and Central Asia), short wavelength undulations of the geoid in poorly sampled areas can be derived using satellite altimetry. The models used in this study present very similar geographical patterns when compared to MLS. The precision of the models largely depends on the location of the lakes and is about 18 cm, in average over the Earth. MLS can serve as a validation dataset for any future geoid model. It will also be useful for validation of the future mission SWOT (Surface Water and Ocean Topography) which will measure and map water heights over the lakes with a high horizontal resolution of 250 by 250 m