Significant variability of structure and predictability of Arctic Ocean surface pathways affects basin-wide connectivity

The Arctic Ocean is of central importance for the global climate and ecosystem. It is a region undergoing rapid climate change, with a dramatic decrease in sea ice cover over recent decades. Surface advective pathways connect the transport of nutrients, freshwater, carbon and contaminants with their sources and sinks. Pathways of drifting material are deformed under velocity strain, due to atmosphere-ocean-ice coupling. Deformation is largest at fine space- and time-scales and is associated with a loss of potential predictability, analogous to weather often becoming unpredictable as synoptic-scale eddies interact and deform. However, neither satellite observations nor climate model projections resolve fine-scale ocean velocity structure. Here, we use a high-resolution ocean model hindcast and coarser satellite-derived ice velocities, to show: that ensemble-mean pathways within the Transpolar Drift during 2004–14 have large interannual variability and that both saddle-like flow structures and the presence of fine-scale velocity gradients are important for basin-wide connectivity and crossing time, pathway bifurcation, predictability and dispersion

Chapter 1.2: Tipping points in the cryosphere

Drastic changes in our planet’s frozen landscapes have occurred over recent decades, from Arctic sea ice decline and thawing of permafrost soils to polar amplification, the retreat of glaciers and ice loss from the ice sheets. In this chapter, we assess multiple lines of evidence for tipping points in the cryosphere – encompassing the ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica, sea ice, mountain glaciers and permafrost – based on recent observations, palaeorecords, numerical modelling and theoretical understanding. With about 1.2°C of global warming compared to pre-industrial levels, we are getting dangerously close to the temperature thresholds of some major tipping points for the ice sheets of Greenland and West Antarctica. Crossing these would lock in unavoidable long-term global sea level rise of up to 10 metres. There is evidence for localised and regional tipping points for glaciers and permafrost and, while evidence for global-scale tipping dynamics in sea ice, glaciers and permafrost is limited, their decline will continue with unabated global warming. Because of the long response times of these systems, some impacts of crossing potential tipping points will unfold over centuries to millennia. However, with the current trajectory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and subsequent anthropogenic climate change, such largely irreversible changes might already have been triggered. These will cause far-reaching impacts for ecosystems and humans alike, threatening the livelihoods of millions of people, and will become more severe the further global warming progresses. The scientific content of this chapter is based on the following manuscript in preparation: Winkelmann et al., (in prep

A search for new physics in low-energy electron recoils from the first LZ exposure

The LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) experiment is a dark matter detector centered on a dual-phase xenon time projection chamber. We report searches for new physics appearing through few-keV-scale electron recoils, using the experiment's first exposure of 60 live days and a fiducial mass of 5.5t. The data are found to be consistent with a background-only hypothesis, and limits are set on models for new physics including solar axion electron coupling, solar neutrino magnetic moment and millicharge, and electron couplings to galactic axion-like particles and hidden photons. Similar limits are set on weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP) dark matter producing signals through ionized atomic states from the Migdal effect.Comment: 13 pages, 10 figures. See https://tinyurl.com/LZDataReleaseRun1ER for a data release related to this pape

First Dark Matter Search Results from the LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) Experiment

The LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) experiment is a dark matter detector centered on a dual-phase xenon time projection chamber operating at the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, South Dakota, USA. This Letter reports results from LZ's first search for Weakly Interacting Massive Particles (WIMPs) with an exposure of 60 live days using a fiducial mass of 5.5 t. A profile-likelihood ratio analysis shows the data to be consistent with a background-only hypothesis, setting new limits on spin-independent WIMP-nucleon, spin-dependent WIMP-neutron, and spin-dependent WIMP-proton cross-sections for WIMP masses above 9 GeV/c$^2$. The most stringent limit is set at 30 GeV/c$^2$, excluding cross sections above 5.9$\times 10^{-48}$ cm$^2$ at the 90\% confidence level.Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures. See https://tinyurl.com/LZDataReleaseRun1 for a data release related to this pape

Global Tipping Points Report 2023: Ch1.2: Cryosphere tipping points.

Drastic changes in our planet’s frozen landscapes have occurred over recent decades, from Arctic sea ice decline and thawing of permafrost soils to polar amplification, the retreat of glaciers and ice loss from the ice sheets. In this chapter, we assess multiple lines of evidence for tipping points in the cryosphere – encompassing the ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica, sea ice, mountain glaciers and permafrost – based on recent observations, palaeorecords, numerical modelling and theoretical understanding. With about 1.2°C of global warming compared to pre-industrial levels, we are getting dangerously close to the temperature thresholds of some major tipping points for the ice sheets of Greenland and West Antarctica. Crossing these would lock in unavoidable long-term global sea level rise of up to 10 metres. There is evidence for localised and regional tipping points for glaciers and permafrost and, while evidence for global-scale tipping dynamics in sea ice, glaciers and permafrost is limited, their decline will continue with unabated global warming. Because of the long response times of these systems, some impacts of crossing potential tipping points will unfold over centuries to millennia. However, with the current trajectory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and subsequent anthropogenic climate change, such largely irreversible changes might already have been triggered. These will cause far-reaching impacts for ecosystems and humans alike, threatening the livelihoods of millions of people, and will become more severe the further global warming progresses

The LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) Experiment

We describe the design and assembly of the LUX-ZEPLIN experiment, a direct detection search for cosmic WIMP dark matter particles. The centerpiece of the experiment is a large liquid xenon time projection chamber sensitive to low energy nuclear recoils. Rejection of backgrounds is enhanced by a Xe skin veto detector and by a liquid scintillator Outer Detector loaded with gadolinium for efficient neutron capture and tagging. LZ is located in the Davis Cavern at the 4850' level of the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, South Dakota, USA. We describe the major subsystems of the experiment and its key design features and requirements

Global Tipping Points Report 2023: Ch1.5: Climate tipping point interactions and cascades.

This chapter reviews interactions between climate tipping systems and assesses the potential risk of cascading effects. After a definition of tipping system interactions, we map out the current state of the literature on specific interactions between climate tipping systems that may be important for the overall stability of the climate system. For this, we gather evidence from model simulations, observations and conceptual understanding, as well as archetypal examples of palaeoclimate reconstructions where propagating transitions were potentially at play. This chapter concludes by identifying crucial knowledge gaps in tipping system interactions that should be resolved in order to improve risk assessments of cascading transitions under future climate change scenarios