Collaborative Proposal: CAMEO: Using interdecadal comparisons to understand trade-offs between abundance and condition in fishery ecosystems

The investigators will conduct a model-based investigation of the dynamics of a productive pelagic ecosystems in the Gulf of Maine. The middle trophic levels in highly productive marine ecosystems are typically dominated by a few species of pelagic fish, such as sardines and anchovies in upwelling environments or herring and/or capelin in temperate and subpolar regions. These species act as important conduits for energy to higher trophic levels, including larger fish, seabirds, and cetaceans. When abundant, small pelagics can exert significant pressure on their prey, typically large mesozooplankton. Small pelagic fish exhibit complex dynamics and managing these species under an ecosystem approach is challenging. This modeling study will track both the abundance and condition of representative copepods (Calanus finmarchicus, Centropages typicus), herring, and bluefin tuna. The investigators will use a rigorous comparison of conditions from the 1980s and 1990s to develop the model. They will examine the sensitivity of this ecosystem to changes in fishing pressure on the middle trophic levels and to changes in the magnitude and timing of primary production. They will also consider the impact of increased temperature on the ability of C. finmarchicus to accumulate lipids and alter the condition of herring and tuna.The project will lead to improved knowledge of ecosystems with productive food webs. It will also directly impact address issues related to the management of the herring resource in the Gulf of Maine. The investigators will examine the consequences of ignoring condition of zooplankton and fish, as is the case with the current stock assessment. They will also explore the dynamical properties of the model ecosystem and consider under what conditions it is possible to have both abundant and well conditioned herring

The role of the North Atlantic overturning and deep ocean for multi-decadal global-mean-temperature variability

Earth's climate exhibits internal modes of variability on various timescales. Here we investigate multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), Northern Hemisphere sea-ice extent and global mean temperature (GMT) in an ensemble of CMIP5 models under control conditions. We report an inter-annual GMT variability of about ±0.1° C originating solely from natural variability in the model ensemble. By decomposing the GMT variance into contributions of the AMOC and Northern Hemisphere sea-ice extent using a graph-theoretical statistical approach, we find the AMOC to contribute 8% to GMT variability in the ensemble mean. Our results highlight the importance of AMOC sea-ice feedbacks that explain 5% of the GMT variance, while the contribution solely related to the AMOC is found to be about 3%. As a consequence of multi-decadal AMOC variability, we report substantial variations in North Atlantic deep-ocean heat content with trends of up to 0.7 × 1022 J decade−1 that are of the order of observed changes over the last decade and consistent with the reduced GMT warming trend over this period. Although these temperature anomalies are largely density-compensated by salinity changes, we find a robust negative correlation between the AMOC and North Atlantic deep-ocean density with density lagging the AMOC by 5 to 11 yr in most models. While this would in principle allow for a self-sustained oscillatory behavior of the coupled AMOC–deep-ocean system, our results are inconclusive about the role of this feedback in the model ensemble

A deep dive: Chandra observations of the NGC 4839 group falling into the Coma cluster

Cosmological simulations of structure formation predict that galaxy clusters continue to grow and evolve through ongoing mergers with group-scale systems. During these merging events, the ram pressure applied by the intracluster medium acts to strip the gas from the infalling groups, forming large tails of stripped gas, which eventually become part of the main cluster. In this work, we present a detailed analysis of our new deep Chandra observations of the NGC 4839 group falling into the nearby Coma cluster, providing a unique opportunity to explore the way galaxy clusters in the local universe continue to grow. Our analysis reveals a cold front feature at the leading head of the group, preceded by a bow shock of hot gas in front with a Mach number of $\sim\! 1.5$. The power spectrum of surface brightness fluctuations in the tail shows that the slope gets less steep as the distance from the leading head increases, changing from $-2.35_{-0.06}^{+0.07}$ at the inner part of the tail to $-1.37_{-0.07}^{+0.09}$ at the outermost part of the tail. These values are shallower than the slope of the Kolmogorov 2D power spectrum, indicating that thermal conduction is being suppressed throughout the tail, enabling long-lived small-scale turbulence, which would typically be washed out if thermal conduction was not inhibited. The characteristic amplitude of surface brightness fluctuations in the tail suggests a mild level of turbulence with a Mach number in the range of 0.1-0.5, agreeing with that found for the infalling group in Abell 2142.Comment: 10 pages, 10 figures, 3 tables. Accepted for publication in MNRA

Estimating causal networks in biosphere–atmosphere interaction with the PCMCI approach

Local meteorological conditions and biospheric activity are tightly coupled. Understanding these links is an essential prerequisite for predicting the Earth system under climate change conditions. However, many empirical studies on the interaction between the biosphere and the atmosphere are based on correlative approaches that are not able to deduce causal paths, and only very few studies apply causal discovery methods. Here, we use a recently proposed causal graph discovery algorithm, which aims to reconstruct the causal dependency structure underlying a set of time series. We explore the potential of this method to infer temporal dependencies in biosphere-atmosphere interactions. Specifically we address the following questions: How do periodicity and heteroscedasticity influence causal detection rates, i.e. the detection of existing and non-existing links? How consistent are results for noise-contaminated data? Do results exhibit an increased information content that justifies the use of this causal-inference method? We explore the first question using artificial time series with well known dependencies that mimic real-world biosphere-atmosphere interactions. The two remaining questions are addressed jointly in two case studies utilizing observational data. Firstly, we analyse three replicated eddy covariance datasets from a Mediterranean ecosystem at half hourly time resolution allowing us to understand the impact of measurement uncertainties. Secondly, we analyse global NDVI time series (GIMMS 3g) along with gridded climate data to study large-scale climatic drivers of vegetation greenness. Overall, the results confirm the capacity of the causal discovery method to extract time-lagged linear dependencies under realistic settings. The violation of the method's assumptions increases the likelihood to detect false links. Nevertheless, we consistently identify interaction patterns in observational data. Our findings suggest that estimating a directed biosphere-atmosphere network at the ecosystem level can offer novel possibilities to unravel complex multi-directional interactions. Other than classical correlative approaches, our findings are constrained to a few meaningful set of relations which can be powerful insights for the evaluation of terrestrial ecosystem models

Thermodynamics and Excitations of Condensed Polaritons in Disordered Microcavities

We study the thermodynamic condensation of microcavity polaritons using a realistic model of disorder in semiconductor quantum wells. This approach correctly describes the polariton inhomogeneous broadening in the low density limit, and treats scattering by disorder to all orders in the condensed regime. While the weak disorder changes the thermodynamic properties of the transition little, the effects of disorder in the condensed state are prominent in the excitations and can be seen in resonant Rayleigh scattering.Comment: 5 pages, 3 eps figures (published version

Quantum simulations of the superfluid-insulator transition for two-dimensional, disordered, hard-core bosons

We introduce two novel quantum Monte Carlo methods and employ them to study the superfluid-insulator transition in a two-dimensional system of hard-core bosons. One of the methods is appropriate for zero temperature and is based upon Green's function Monte Carlo; the other is a finite-temperature world-line cluster algorithm. In each case we find that the dynamical exponent is consistent with the theoretical prediction of $z=2$ by Fisher and co-workers.Comment: Revtex, 10 pages, 3 figures (postscript files attached at end, separated by %%%%%% Fig # %%%%%, where # is 1-3). LA-UR-94-270

Center of mass and relative motion in time dependent density functional theory

It is shown that the exchange-correlation part of the action functional $A_{xc}[\rho (\vec r,t)]$ in time-dependent density functional theory , where $\rho (\vec r,t)$ is the time-dependent density, is invariant under the transformation to an accelerated frame of reference $\rho (\vec r,t) \to \rho ' (\vec r,t) = \rho (\vec r + \vec x (t),t)$, where $\vec x (t)$ is an arbitrary function of time. This invariance implies that the exchange-correlation potential in the Kohn-Sham equation transforms in the following manner: $V_{xc}[\rho '; \vec r, t] = V_{xc}[\rho; \vec r + \vec x (t),t]$. Some of the approximate formulas that have been proposed for $V_{xc}$ satisfy this exact transformation property, others do not. Those which transform in the correct manner automatically satisfy the ``harmonic potential theorem", i.e. the separation of the center of mass motion for a system of interacting particles in the presence of a harmonic external potential. A general method to generate functionals which possess the correct symmetry is proposed

Ground state parameters, finite-size scaling, and low-temperature properties of the two-dimensional S=1/2 XY model

We present high-precision quantum Monte Carlo results for the S=1/2 XY model on a two-dimensional square lattice, in the ground state as well as at finite temperature. The energy, the spin stiffness, the magnetization, and the susceptibility are calculated and extrapolated to the thermodynamic limit. For the ground state, we test a variety of finite-size scaling predictions of effective Lagrangian theory and find good agreement and consistency between the finite-size corrections for different quantities. The low-temperature behavior of the susceptibility and the internal energy is also in good agreement with theoretical predictions.Comment: 6 pages, 8 figure