Percepción de variabilidad climática, uso de información y estrategias de los agentes frente al riesgo : Análisis de esquemas decisionales en agricultores de la región pampeana argentina

Este artículo indaga acerca de qué elementos de análisis están presentes en las estrategias de los agricultores de las pampas argentinas a la hora de tomar decisiones de producción considerando el factor climático. El énfasis está puesto en cómo perciben la variabilidad climática y qué información manejan acerca de sus perspectivas a mediano plazo. Durante 2005 se entrevistaron a 60 productores, seleccionados de dos zonas pampeanas de diferentes características físicas. 30 personas correspondieron al área central húmeda y 30 personas a un área marginal semiárida. Los resultados del estudio apuntan a caracterizar los esquemas decisionales presentes en las percepciones de los individuos, teniendo en cuenta que su actividad supone una exposición al riesgo. El objetivo de fondo del trabajo de investigación es proponer acciones de comunicación que ayuden a un mejor uso de la información climática, considerando que se trata de una herramienta disponible con gran potencial para dar un soporte más científico a los procedimientos de los agentes productivos y mejorar su rentabilidad económica.This article analyzes the elements that are considered by Pampean producers when making production decisions considering the climate as a factor. The article focuses on how producers perceive climate variability and on the type of information they manage when it comes to mid-term perspectives. During 2005, interviews were held with 60 producers, who were selected from two different zones of the Pampa region with different physical characteristics, thirty of them belonging to the central humid pampas in Buenos Aires province and the other thirty belonging toborder semiarid pampas located at Cordoba province. The results of the analysis help characterize the mental models behind the decision-making process in the individuals' perceptions, bearing in mind that their activity entails exposure to risk. The research's main objective is to propose communication measures that may help improve the use of climate forecasts by the social agents, assuming this is an available tool with significant potential to provide a more scientific support to the procedures of the production agents and to -improve economic earnings performance.Centro de Estudios Históricos Rurale

Perception of climate variability, information use and strategies of the agents in the face of risk. Characterizing mental models in decision-making of agriculturalists from Argentine pampas

Este artículo indaga acerca de qué elementos de análisis están presentes en las estrategias de los agricultores de las pampas argentinas a la hora de tomar decisiones de producción considerando el factor climático. El énfasis está puesto en cómo perciben la variabilidad climática y qué información manejan acerca de sus perspectivas a mediano plazo. Durante 2005 se entrevistaron a 60 productores, seleccionados de dos zonas pampeanas de diferentes características físicas. 30 personas correspondieron al área central húmeda y 30 personas a un área marginal semiárida. Los resultados del estudio apuntan a caracterizar los esquemas decisionales presentes en las percepciones de los individuos, teniendo en cuenta que su actividad supone una exposición al riesgo. El objetivo de fondo del trabajo de investigación es proponer acciones de comunicación que ayuden a un mejor uso de la información climática, considerando que se trata de una herramienta disponible con gran potencial para dar un soporte más científico a los procedimientos de los agentes productivos y mejorar su rentabilidad económica.This article analyzes the elements that are considered by Pampean producers when making production decisions considering the climate as a factor. The article focuses on how producers perceive climate variability and on the type of information they manage when it comes to mid-term perspectives. During 2005, interviews were held with 60 producers, who were selected from two different zones of the Pampa region with different physical characteristics, thirty of them belonging to the central humid pampas in Buenos Aires province and the other thirty belonging toborder semiarid pampas located at Cordoba province. The results of the analysis help characterize the mental models behind the decision-making process in the individuals' perceptions, bearing in mind that their activity entails exposure to risk. The research's main objective is to propose communication measures that may help improve the use of climate forecasts by the social agents, assuming this is an available tool with significant potential to provide a more scientific support to the procedures of the production agents and to- improve economic earnings performance

Percepción de variabilidad climática, uso de información y estrategias de los agentes frente al riesgo. Análisis de esquemas decisionales en agricultores de la región pampeana argentina

This article analyzes the elements that are considered by Pampean producers when making production decisions considering the climate as a factor. The article focuses on how producers perceive climate variability and on the type of information they manage when it comes to mid-term perspectives. During 2005, interviews were held with 60 producers, who were selected from two different zones of the Pampa region with different physical characteristics, thirty of them belonging to the central humid pampas in Buenos Aires province and the other thirty belonging toborder semiarid pampas located at Cordoba province. The results of the analysis help characterize the mental models behind the decision-making process in the individuals' perceptions, bearing in mind that their activity entails exposure to risk. The research's main objective is to propose communication measures that may help improve the use of climate forecasts by the social agents, assuming this is an available tool with significant potential to provide a more scientific support to the procedures of the production agents and to -improve economic earnings performance.Este artículo indaga acerca de qué elementos de análisis están presentes en las estrategias de los agricultores de las pampas argentinas a la hora de tomar decisiones de producción considerando el factor climático. El énfasis está puesto en cómo perciben la variabilidad climática y qué información manejan acerca de sus perspectivas a mediano plazo. Durante 2005 se entrevistaron a 60 productores, seleccionados de dos zonas pampeanas de diferentes características físicas. 30 personas correspondieron al área central húmeda y 30 personas a un área marginal semiárida. Los resultados del estudio apuntan a caracterizar los esquemas decisionales presentes en las percepciones de los individuos, teniendo en cuenta que su actividad supone una exposición al riesgo. El objetivo de fondo del trabajo de investigación es proponer acciones de comunicación que ayuden a un mejor uso de la información climática, considerando que se trata de una herramienta disponible con gran potencial para dar un soporte más científico a los procedimientos de los agentes productivos y mejorar su rentabilidad económica

Perception of climate variability, information use and strategies of the agents in front of risk. Characterizing mental models in decision-making of agriculturalists from Argentine pampas Percepción de variabilidad climática, uso de información y estrategias de los agentes frente al riesgo. Análisis de esquemas decisionales en agricultores de la región pampeana argentina

This article analyzes the elements that are considered by Pampean producers when making production decisions considering the climate as a factor. The article focuses on how producers perceive climate variability and on the type of information they manage when it comes to mid-term perspectives. During 2005, interviews were held with 60 producers, who were selected from two different zones of the Pampa region with different physical characteristics, thirty of them belonging to the central humid pampas in Buenos Aires province and the other thirty belonging toborder semiarid pampas located at Cordoba province. The results of the analysis help characterize the mental models behind the decision-making process in the individuals' perceptions, bearing in mind that their activity entails exposure to risk. The research's main objective is to propose communication measures that may help improve the use of climate forecasts by the social agents, assuming this is an available tool with significant potential to provide a more scientific support to the procedures of the production agents and to -improve economic earnings performance.Este artículo indaga acerca de qué elementos de análisis están presentes en las estrategias de los agricultores de las pampas argentinas a la hora de tomar decisiones de producción considerando el factor climático. El énfasis está puesto en cómo perciben la variabilidad climática y qué información manejan acerca de sus perspectivas a mediano plazo. Durante 2005 se entrevistaron a 60 productores, seleccionados de dos zonas pampeanas de diferentes características físicas. 30 personas correspondieron al área central húmeda y 30 personas a un área marginal semiárida. Los resultados del estudio apuntan a caracterizar los esquemas decisionales presentes en las percepciones de los individuos, teniendo en cuenta que su actividad supone una exposición al riesgo. El objetivo de fondo del trabajo de investigación es proponer acciones de comunicación que ayuden a un mejor uso de la información climática, considerando que se trata de una herramienta disponible con gran potencial para dar un soporte más científico a los procedimientos de los agentes productivos y mejorar su rentabilidad económica

Percepción de variabilidad climática, uso de información y estrategias de los agentes frente al riesgo. Análisis de esquemas decisionales en agricultores de la región pampeana argentina

This article analyzes the elements that are considered by Pampean producers when making production decisions considering the climate as a factor. The article focuses on how producers perceive climate variability and on the type of information they manage when it comes to mid-term perspectives. During 2005, interviews were held with 60 producers, who were selected from two different zones of the Pampa region with different physical characteristics, thirty of them belonging to the central humid pampas in Buenos Aires province and the other thirty belonging toborder semiarid pampas located at Cordoba province. The results of the analysis help characterize the mental models behind the decision-making process in the individuals' perceptions, bearing in mind that their activity entails exposure to risk. The research's main objective is to propose communication measures that may help improve the use of climate forecasts by the social agents, assuming this is an available tool with significant potential to provide a more scientific support to the procedures of the production agents and to -improve economic earnings performance.Este artí­culo indaga acerca de qué elementos de análisis están presentes en las estrategias de los agricultores de las pampas argentinas a la hora de tomar decisiones de producción considerando el factor climático. El énfasis está puesto en cómo perciben la variabilidad climática y qué información manejan acerca de sus perspectivas a mediano plazo. Durante 2005 se entrevistaron a 60 productores, seleccionados de dos zonas pampeanas de diferentes caracterí­sticas fí­sicas. 30 personas correspondieron al área central húmeda y 30 personas a un área marginal semiárida. Los resultados del estudio apuntan a caracterizar los esquemas decisionales presentes en las percepciones de los individuos, teniendo en cuenta que su actividad supone una exposición al riesgo. El objetivo de fondo del trabajo de investigación es proponer acciones de comunicación que ayuden a un mejor uso de la información climática, considerando que se trata de una herramienta disponible con gran potencial para dar un soporte más cientí­fico a los procedimientos de los agentes productivos y mejorar su rentabilidad económica

Climatic information and decision-making in maize crop production systems of the Argentinean Pampas

In many places, predictions of regional climate variability associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon offer the potential to improve farmers' decision-making, i.e., mitigate negative impacts of adverse conditions or take advantage of favorable conditions. However, various conditions must be met for a forecast to result in enhanced decision-making. First, information has to be relevant to, and compatible with production decisions. Second, alternative options must exist for a given decision and these should result in different outcomes under different climate conditions. Third, decision-makers should be able to evaluate the outcomes of alternative actions. In this paper, we explored these conditions as part of a case study targeting maize production systems in the Argentine Pampas. The decision-making process was described via "decision maps" that (a) characterized the main decisions involved in maize production systems and their timing, (b) identified decisions sensitive to climate, and (c) provided a realistic set of options for each decision under different seasonal climate scenarios. Then, we used crop simulation models to assess the outcomes of tailoring crop management to predicted climate conditions. We found differences between the options selected by regional advisors for each climate scenario and those that maximized average profits in the simulation exercise. In particular, differences were most noticeable in preferred nitrogen fertilization rates. While advisors tended to lower fertilization in response to a forecast of dry spring conditions, associated with La Niña events, the simulation exercise showed a consistent drop in maize yields and profits with low N rates even in La Niña years. Advisors and producers' aversion to risk can be determining these differences, since the analysis showed that the probability of negative economic results are minimized under their decision rule. The procedure was effective to meet some of the conditions required to use climate information and to determine the value of incorporating ENSO-related information to effectively improve the maize decision process. However, results suggest that better knowledge of farmers decision rules are necessary when the value of using climatic information is estimated and interpreted.Fil: Bert, Federico Esteban. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía. Departamento de Producción Vegetal. Cátedra de Cerealicultura; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Satorre, Emilio Horacio. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía. Departamento de Producción Vegetal. Cátedra de Cerealicultura; Argentina. Asociacion Argentina de Consorcios Regionales de Experimentacion Agricola.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Toranzo, Fernando Ruiz. Asociacion Argentina de Consorcios Regionales de Experimentacion Agricola.; ArgentinaFil: Podestá, Guillermo. University of Miami; Estados Unido

Interdisciplinary production of knowledge with participation of stakeholders: A case study of a collaborative project on climate variability, human decisions and agricultural ecosystems in the Argentine Pampas

► Interdisciplinary teams are increasingly common in integrative research but conditions for success in this type of work remain unclear. ► A self-reflective assessment on the collaborative process should be an essential component of integrated assessments. ► Different issues and conflicts arise as interdisciplinary collaboration evolves from project design to project assessment. ► The lack of consensus on criteria for assessment of interdisciplinary research is often ranked as a major challenge. There is a growing perception that science is not responding adequately to the global challenges of the 21st century. Addressing complicated, “wicked” current and future environmental issues requires insights and methods from many disciplines. Furthermore, to reach social robustness in a context of uncertainty and multiple values and objectives, participation of relevant social actors is required. As a consequence, interdisciplinary research teams with stakeholder or practitioner involvement are becoming an emerging pattern for the organization of integrative scientific research or integrated assessments. Nevertheless, still there is need to learn from actual experiences that bring together decision makers and scholars from different disciplines. This paper draws lessons from a self-reflective study of the collaborative process in two interdisciplinary, multi-institutional, multinational research teams addressing linkages between climate variability, human decisions and agricultural ecosystems in the Argentine Pampas. During project design, attention must be placed on team composition, ensuring not only that the needed talents are included, but also recruiting investigators with an open attitude toward interdisciplinary interaction. As the project begins, considerable effort must be dedicated to shared problem definition and development of a common language. Simple conceptual models and considerable redundancy in communication are helpful. As a project evolves, diverging institutional incentives, tensions between academic publication and outreach or policy-relevant outputs, disciplinary biases, and personality issues play increasingly important roles. Finally, toward a project's end the challenge arises of assessing interdisciplinary, integrative work. The lack of consensus on criteria for assessment of results is often ranked as a major practical difficulty of this kind of research. Despite many efforts to describe and characterize collaborative research on complex problems, conditions for success (including the very definition of “success”) remain to be rigorously grounded on actual cases. Toward this goal, we argue that a self-reflective process to identify and intervene on factors that foster or impede cooperative production of knowledge should be an essential component of integrated assessments involving scientists, practitioners and stakeholders

An agent based model to simulate structural and land use changes in agricultural systems of the argentine pampas

The Argentine Pampas, one of the main agricultural areas in the world, recently has undergone significant changes in land use and structural characteristics of agricultural production systems. Concerns about the environmental and societal impacts of the changes motivated development of an agent-based model (ABM) to gain insight on processes underlying recent observed patterns. The model is described following a standard protocol (ODD). Results are discussed for an initial set of simplified simulations performed to understand the processes that generated and magnified the changes in the Pampas. Changes in the structure of agricultural production and land tenure seem to be driven by differences among farmers’ ability to generate sufficient agricultural income to remain in business. In turn, as no off-farm or credit is modeled, economic sustainability is tied to initial resource endowment (area cropped). Farmers operating small areas are economically unviable and must lease out their farms to farmers operating larger areas. This leads to two patterns: (a) a concentration of production (fewer farmers operating larger areas) and, (b) an increase in the area operated by tenants. The simulations showed an increase of soybean area, linked to the higher profitability of this crop. Despite the stylized nature of initial simulations, all emerging patterns are highly consistent with changes observed in the Pampas.Fil: Bert, Federico Esteban. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía. Departamento de Producción Vegetal. Cátedra de Cerealicultura; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario; ArgentinaFil: Podesta, Guillermo P.. University Of Miami. Rosenstiel School Of Marine Atmospheric Science. Meteorology And Physical Oceanography; Estados UnidosFil: Rovere, Santiago L.. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ingeniería; ArgentinaFil: Menendez, Angel N.. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ingeniería; ArgentinaFil: North, Michael. Argonne National Laboratory; Estados UnidosFil: Tatara, Eric. Argonne National Laboratory; Estados UnidosFil: Laciana, Carlos E.. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ingeniería; ArgentinaFil: Weber, Elke. Columbia University; Estados UnidosFil: Ruiz Toranzo, Fernando. Asociación Argentina de Consorcios Regionales de Experimentación Agrícola ; Argentin