Glacial Inception in Marine Isotope Stage 19: An Orbital Analog for a Natural Holocene Climate

The Marine Isotope Stage 19c (MIS19c) interglaciation is regarded as the best orbital analog to the Holocene. The close of MIS19c (~777,000 years ago) thus serves as a proxy for a contemporary climate system unaffected by humans. Our global climate model simulation driven by orbital parameters and observed greenhouse gas concentrations at the end of MIS19c is 1.3 K colder than the reference pre-industrial climate of the late Holocene (year 1850). Much stronger cooling occurs in the Arctic, where sea ice and year-round snow cover expand considerably. Inferred regions of glaciation develop across northeastern Siberia, northwestern North America, and the Canadian Archipelago. These locations are consistent with evidence from past glacial inceptions and are favored by atmospheric circulation changes that reduce ablation of snow cover and increase accumulation of snowfall. Particularly large buildups of snow depth coincide with presumed glacial nucleation sites, including Baffin Island and the northeast Canadian Archipelago. These findings suggest that present-day climate would be susceptible to glacial inception if greenhouse gas concentrations were as low as they were at the end of MIS 19c

An early Little Ice Age brackish water invasion along the south coast of the Caspian Sea (sediment of Langarud wetland) and its wider impacts on environment and people

Caspian Sea level has undergone significant changes through time with major impacts not only on the surrounding coasts, but also offshore. This study reports a brackish water invasion on the southern coast of the Caspian Sea constructed from a multi-proxy analysis of sediment retrieved from the Langarud wetland. The ground surface level of wetland is >6 m higher than the current Caspian Sea level (at -27.41 m in 2014) and located >11 km far from the coast. A sequence covering the last millennium was dated by three radiocarbon dates. The results from this new study suggest that Caspian Sea level rose up to at least -21.44 m (i.e. >6 m above the present water level) during the early Little Ice Age. Although previous studies in the southern coast of the Caspian Sea have detected a high-stand during the Little Ice Age period, this study presents the first evidence that this high-stand reached so far inland and at such a high altitude. Moreover, it confirms one of the very few earlier estimates of a high-stand at -21 m for the second half of the 14th century. The effects of this large-scale brackish water invasion on soil properties would have caused severe disruption to regional agriculture, thereby destabilizing local dynasties and facilitating a rapid Turko-Mongol expansion of Tamerlane’s armies from the east.N Ghasemi (INIOAS), V Jahani (Gilan Province Cultural Heritage and Tourism Organisation) and A Naqinezhad (University of Mazandaran), INQUA QuickLakeH project (no. 1227) and to the European project Marie Curie, CLIMSEAS-PIRSES-GA-2009-24751

Paleoclimate and bubonic plague: a forewarning of future risk?

Pandemics of bubonic plague have occurred in Eurasia since the sixth century ad. Climatic variations in Central Asia affect the population size and activity of the plague bacterium's reservoir rodent species, influencing the probability of human infection. Using innovative time-series analysis of surrogate climate records spanning 1,500 years, a study in BMC Biology concludes that climatic fluctuations may have influenced these pandemics. This has potential implications for health risks from future climate change

Dating of the oldest continental sediments from the Himalayan foreland basin

A detailed knowledge of Himalayan development is important for our wider understanding of several global processes, ranging from models of plateau uplift to changes in oceanic chemistry and climate(1-4). Continental sediments 55 Myr old found in a foreland basin in Pakistan(5) are, by more than 20 Myr, the oldest deposits thought to have been eroded from the Himalayan metamorphic mountain belt. This constraint on when erosion began has influenced models of the timing and diachrony of the India-Eurasia collision(6-8), timing and mechanisms of exhumation(9,10) and uplift(11), as well as our general understanding of foreland basin dynamics(12). But the depositional age of these basin sediments was based on biostratigraphy from four intercalated marl units(5). Here we present dates of 257 detrital grains of white mica from this succession, using the Ar-40-(39) Ar method, and find that the largest concentration of ages are at 36-40 Myr. These dates are incompatible with the biostratigraphy unless the mineral ages have been reset, a possibility that we reject on the basis of a number of lines of evidence. A more detailed mapping of this formation suggests that the marl units are structurally intercalated with the continental sediments and accordingly that biostratigraphy cannot be used to date the clastic succession. The oldest continental foreland basin sediments containing metamorphic detritus eroded from the Himalaya orogeny therefore seem to be at least 15-20 Myr younger than previously believed, and models based on the older age must be re-evaluated

The Diffusion of Humans and Cultures in the Course of the Spread of Farming

The most profound change in the relationship between humans and their environment was the introduction of agriculture and pastoralism. [....] For an understanding of the expansion process, it appears appropriate to apply a diffusive model. Broadly, these numerical modeling approaches can be catego- rized in correlative, continuous and discrete. Common to all approaches is the comparison to collections of radiocarbon data that show the apparent wave of advance of the transition to farming. However, these data sets differ in entry density and data quality. Often they disregard local and regional specifics and research gaps, or dating uncertainties. Thus, most of these data bases may only be used on a very general, broad scale. One of the pitfalls of using irregularly spaced or irregularly documented radiocarbon data becomes evident from the map generated by Fort (this volume, Chapter 16): while the general east-west and south-north trends become evident, some areas appear as having undergone anomalously early transitions to farming. This may be due to faulty entries into the data base or regional problems with radiocarbon dating, if not unnoticed or undocumented laboratory mistakes.Comment: 20 pages, 5 figures, submitted to Diffusive Spreading in Nature, Technology and Society, edited by Armin Bunde, J\"urgen Caro, J\"org K\"arger, Gero Vogl, Chapter 1

Wolfgang Schott (1905–1989): the founder of quantitative paleoceanography

Wolfgang Schott is the pioneer in paleoceanography and has established this research field within marine geology. His papers from the first half of the twentieth century are all published in German; therefore, the most inspiring results are given here as original quotes in English, since they paved the ground for all scientific discussions on climate stratigraphy, past ocean currents, and glacial interglacial cycles

Anthropocene: another academic invention?

n/

What have we learnt from palaeoclimate simulations?

There has been a gradual evolution in the way that palaeoclimate modelling and palaeoenvironmental data are used together to understand how the Earth System works, from an initial and largely descriptive phase through explicit hypothesis testing to diagnosis of underlying mechanisms. Analyses of past climate states are now regarded as integral to the evaluation of climate models, and have become part of the toolkit used to assess the likely realism of future projections. Palaeoclimate assessment has demonstrated that changes in large-scale features of climate that are governed by the energy and water balance show consistent responses to changes in forcing in different climate states, and these consistent responses are reproduced by climate models. However, state-of-the-art models are still largely unable to reproduce observed changes in climate at a regional scale reliably. While palaeoclimate analyses of state-of-the-art climate models suggest an urgent need for model improvement, much work is also needed on extending and improving palaeoclimate reconstructions and quantifying and reducing both numerical and interpretative uncertainties

The Atlantic Ocean at the last glacial maximum: 1. Objective mapping of the GLAMAP sea-surface conditions

Recent efforts of the German paleoceanographic community have resulted in a unique data set of reconstructed sea-surface temperature for the Atlantic Ocean during the Last Glacial Maximum, plus estimates for the extents of glacial sea ice. Unlike prior attempts, the contributing research groups based their data on a common definition of the Last Glacial Maximum chronozone and used the same modern reference data for calibrating the different transfer techniques. Furthermore, the number of processed sediment cores was vastly increased. Thus the new data is a significant advance not only with respect to quality, but also to quantity. We integrate these new data and provide monthly data sets of global sea-surface temperature and ice cover, objectively interpolated onto a regular 1°x1° grid, suitable for forcing or validating numerical ocean and atmosphere models. This set is compared to an existing subjective interpolation of the same base data, in part by employing an ocean circulation model. For the latter purpose, we reconstruct sea surface salinity from the new temperature data and the available oxygen isotope measurements

Obliquity pacing of the late Pleistocene glacial terminations

Author Posting. © The Authors, 2005. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Nature Publishing Group for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Nature 434 (2005): 491-494, doi:10.1038/nature03401.The timing of glacial/interglacial cycles at intervals of about 100,000 yr (100 kyr) is commonly attributed to control by Earth orbital configuration variations. This “pacemaker” hypothesis has inspired many models, variously depending upon Earth obliquity, orbital eccentricity, and precessional fluctuations, with the latter usually emphasized. A contrasting hypothesis is that glacial cycles arise primarily because of random internal climate variability. Progress requires distinguishing between the more than 30 proposed models of the late Pleistocene glacial variations. Here we present a formal test of the pacemaker hypothesis, focusing on the rapid deglaciation events known as terminations. The null hypothesis that glacial terminations are independent of obliquity can be rejected at the 5% significance level. In contrast, for eccentricity and precession, the corresponding null-hypotheses cannot be rejected. The simplest inference, consistent with the observations, is that ice-sheets terminate every second (80 kyr) or third (120 kyr) obliquity cycle — at times of high obliquity — and similar to the original Milankovitch assumption. Hypotheses not accounting for the obliquity pacing are unlikely to be correct. Both stochastic and deterministic variants of a simple obliquity-paced model describe the observations.PH is supported by the NOAA Postdoctoral Program in Climate and Global Change and CW in part by the National Ocean Partnership Program (ECCO)