Influencia de factores bióticos a escala local y de paisaje en la distribución del muérdago en pinares mediterráneos

The study of the spatial patterns of species allows the examination of hypotheses on the most plausible ecological processes and factors determining their distribution. To investigate the determinants of parasite species on Mediterranean forests at regional scales, occurrence data of the European Misletoe (Viscum album) in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula) were extracted from forest inventory data and combined with different types of explanatory variables by means of generalized linear mixed models. The presence of mistletoes in stands of Pinus halepensis seems to be determined by multiple factors (climatic conditions, and characteristics of the host tree and landscape structure) operating at different spatial scales, with the availability of orchards of Olea europaea in the surroundings playing a relevant role. These results suggest that host quality and landscape structure are important mediators of plant-plant and plant-animal interactions and, therefore, management of mistletoe populations should be conducted at both local (i.e. clearing of infected host trees) and landscape scales (e.g. controlling the availability of nutrient-rich food sources that attract bird dispersers). Research and management at landscape-scales are necessary to anticipate the negative consequence of land-use changes in Mediterranean forests.El estudio de los patrones espaciales de las especies permite examinar hipótesis sobre los procesos ecológicos y factores más plausibles que determinan su distribución. Para investigar los determinantes de una especie parásita en bosques mediterráneos a escala regional, se combinaron datos sobre la presencia de muérdago (Viscum album) en Cataluña (NE de la Península Ibérica) extraídos del inventario forestal con diferentes variables explicativas por medio de modelos mixtos generalizados. La presencia de muérdago en masas de Pinus halepensis parece estar determinada por múltiples factores (condiciones climáticas, características del árbol hospedante, y estructura del paisaje) que operan a diferentes escalas espaciales, jugando los cultivos de Olea europaea un papel relevante. Los resultados sugieren que la calidad de los árboles hospedantes y la estructura del paisaje son importantes mediadores de las interacciones planta-planta y planta- animal y, por tanto, la gestión de las poblaciones de muérdago debería llevarse a cabo tanto a nivel local (es decir, cortando árboles hospedantes infectados) como de paisaje (por ejemplo, controlando la disponibilidad de hábitats ricos en nutrientes que atraen a las aves dispersantes). La investigación y gestión a escala de paisaje son necesarias para prevenir las consecuencias negativas de los cambios de uso del suelo en los bosques mediterráneos

Assessing the distribution of the Argentine ant using physiological data

To address the lack of physiological approaches in current models assessing the potential distribution of the Argentine ant, we used data on brood development from distinct sources to evaluate a series of degreeday models for Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula), and data on the brood survival and oviposition rates to develop a worker production model. The degree-day model generated using data from Newell and Barber (1913) and Benois (1973) indicated that the number of degree-days required for the complete development from egg to adult worker was 445.4 degree-days above a threshold of 15.9°C, while the model calibratedusing data from Abril et al. (2008, in press) suggested 599.5 degree-days above 18.4°C. Comparisons between the degree-day model predictions and the currently known distribution of the Argentine ant suggested that the one generated using data from Newell and Barber (1913) and Benois (1973) overestimated the presence of the species, while the one calibrated using data from Abril et al. (2008; in press) underestimated it. On the other hand, the predicted daily net production of Argentine ant workers generated by the worker production model predicted more accurately the distribution of the Argentine ant than the degree-day models. Our results show the utility of incorporating physiological data in models to assess the distribution limits of the Argentine ant, which up to date have taken little account of the physiological needs of the species in terms of its establishment and dispersion in its introduced ranges.Centre of Excellence for Invasion Biolog

A Framework for Global Twenty-First Century Scenarios and Models of Biological Invasions

Biological invasions have emerged as an eminent feature of global change, with substantial impacts on the environment and human livelihoods. Current research demonstrates that the numbers and impacts of alien species are rising unabatedly. At the same time, we lack a thorough understanding of potential future trajectories for the decades to come. With the recent establishment of comprehensive global databases, it is, for the first time, feasible to develop and quantify future scenarios of biological invasions. Therefore, we propose a conceptual framework for how to develop alien species scenarios for the twenty-first century and how to identify relevant steps and challenges along the way. The concept will be important to inform research, policy, stakeholders, and the general public. Furthermore, we call for the scientific community to join forces and to operationalize the framework for scenarios and models of biological invasions to develop an important baseline for understanding and managing future biological invasions

Chemical Defense by the Native Winter Ant (Prenolepis imparis) against the Invasive Argentine Ant (Linepithema humile)

The invasive Argentine ant (Linepithema humile) is established worldwide and displaces native ant species. In northern California, however, the native winter ant (Prenolepis imparis) persists in invaded areas. We found that in aggressive interactions between the two species, P. imparis employs a potent defensive secretion. Field observations were conducted at P. imparis nest sites both in the presence and absence of L. humile. These observations suggested and laboratory assays confirmed that P. imparis workers are more likely to secrete when outnumbered by L. humile. Workers of P. imparis were also more likely to secrete near their nest entrances than when foraging on trees. One-on-one laboratory trials showed that the P. imparis secretion is highly lethal to L. humile, causing 79% mortality. The nonpolar fraction of the secretion was chemically analyzed with gas chromatography/mass spectrometry, and found to be composed of long-chain and cyclic hydrocarbons. Chemical analysis of dissected P. imparis workers showed that the nonpolar fraction is derived from the Dufour's gland. Based on these conclusions, we hypothesize that this chemical defense may help P. imparis to resist displacement by L. humile

Current and Future Niche of North and Central American Sand Flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Climate Change Scenarios

Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector’s ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i) potential change in niche breadth, ii) direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii) shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3), for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%), while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys’ ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases

How Spatial Heterogeneity of Cover Affects Patterns of Shrub Encroachment into Mesic Grasslands

We used a multi-method approach to analyze the spatial patterns of shrubs and cover types (plant species, litter or bare soil) in grassland-shrubland ecotones. This approach allows us to assess how fine-scale spatial heterogeneity of cover types affects the patterns of Cytisus balansae shrub encroachment into mesic mountain grasslands (Catalan Pyrenees, Spain). Spatial patterns and the spatial associations between juvenile shrubs and different cover types were assessed in mesic grasslands dominated by species with different palatabilities (palatable grass Festuca nigrescens and unpalatable grass Festuca eskia). A new index, called RISES (“Relative Index of Shrub Encroachment Susceptibility”), was proposed to calculate the chances of shrub encroachment into a given grassland, combining the magnitude of the spatial associations and the surface area for each cover type. Overall, juveniles showed positive associations with palatable F. nigrescens and negative associations with unpalatable F. eskia, although these associations shifted with shrub development stage. In F. eskia grasslands, bare soil showed a low scale of pattern and positive associations with juveniles. Although the highest RISES values were found in F. nigrescens plots, the number of juvenile Cytisus was similar in both types of grasslands. However, F. nigrescens grasslands showed the greatest number of juveniles in early development stage (i.e. height<10 cm) whereas F. eskia grasslands showed the greatest number of juveniles in late development stages (i.e. height>30 cm). We concluded that in F. eskia grasslands, where establishment may be constrained by the dominant cover type, the low scale of pattern on bare soil may result in higher chances of shrub establishment and survival. In contrast, although grasslands dominated by the palatable F. nigrescens may be more susceptible to shrub establishment; current grazing rates may reduce juvenile survival

Shifting Global Invasive Potential of European Plants with Climate Change

Global climate change and invasions by nonnative species rank among the top concerns for agents of biological loss in coming decades. Although each of these themes has seen considerable attention in the modeling and forecasting communities, their joint effects remain little explored and poorly understood. We developed ecological niche models for 1804 species from the European flora, which we projected globally to identify areas of potential distribution, both at present and across 4 scenarios of future (2055) climates. As expected from previous studies, projections based on the CGCM1 climate model were more extreme than those based on the HadCM3 model, and projections based on the a2 emissions scenario were more extreme than those based on the b2 emissions scenario. However, less expected were the highly nonlinear and contrasting projected changes in distributional areas among continents: increases in distributional potential in Europe often corresponded with decreases on other continents, and species seeing expanding potential on one continent often saw contracting potential on others. In conclusion, global climate change will have complex effects on invasive potential of plant species. The shifts and changes identified in this study suggest strongly that biological communities will see dramatic reorganizations in coming decades owing to shifting invasive potential by nonnative species

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Alternative futures for global biological invasions

Scenario analysis has emerged as a key tool to analyze complex and uncertain future socio-ecological developments. However, currently existing global scenarios (narratives of how the world may develop) have neglected biological invasions, a major threat to biodiversity and the economy. Here, we use a novel participatory process to develop a diverse set of global biological invasion scenarios spanning a wide range of plausible global futures through to 2050. We adapted the widely used “two axes” scenario analysis approach to develop four families of four scenarios each, resulting in 16 scenarios that were later clustered into four contrasting sets of futures. Our analysis highlights that socioeconomic developments and technological innovation have the potential to shape biological invasions, in addition to well-known drivers, such as climate and human land use change and global trade. Our scenarios partially align with the shared socioeconomic pathways created by the climate change research community. Several factors that drive differences in biological invasions were underrepresented in the shared socioeconomic pathways; in particular, the implementation of biosecurity policies. We argue that including factors related to public environmental awareness and technological and trade development in global scenarios and models is essential to adequately consider biological invasions in global environmental assessments and thereby obtain a more integrative picture of future social–ecological developments