The Illusion of Leadership

This paper reports experiments which examine attributions of leadership quality due to differences in situations. Subjects played an abstract coordination game which is analogous to some organizational situations. Previous research showed that when large groups play the game, they rarely coordinate on the Pareto-optimal (efficient) outcome, but small groups almost always coordinate on a Pareto-optimal outcome. After two or three periods of playing the game, one subject who was randomly selected from among the participants to be the "leader" for the experiment was instructed to make a speech exhorting others to choose the efficient action. Based on previous studies with small and large groups, we predicted that small groups would succeed in achieving efficiency and large groups would fail. Based on research on the fundamental attribution error in social psychology, we predicted that the leaders would be credited for the success of the small groups, and blamed for the failure of the large groups. The effects of the leaders in improving coordination were, as predicted, overshadowed by the situational variable (group size). Nonetheless, there was an "illusion of leadership": subjects attributed differences in outcomes between conditions to differences in the effectiveness of leaders. In a second experiment, subjects in both large and small groups coordinated efficiently, but gave less credit to the second leader than the first

FIB efficiency in distributed platforms

© 2016 IEEE.The Internet routing ecosystem is facing substantial scalability challenges due to continuous, significant growth of the state represented in the data plane. Distributed switch architectures introduce additional constraints on efficient implementations from both lookup time and memory footprint perspectives. In this work we explore efficient FIB representations in common distributed switch architectures. Our approach introduces substantial savings in memory footprint transparently for existing hardware. Our results are supported by an extensive simulation study on real IPv4 and IPv6 FIBs

Accommodating stake effects under prospect theory

One of the stylized facts underlying prospect theory is a four-fold pattern of risk preferences. People have been shown to be risk seeking for small probability gains and large probability losses, while being risk averse for large probability gains and small probability losses. Another fourfold pattern of risk preferences over outcomes, postulated by Harry Markowitz in 1952, has received much less attention and is currently not integrated into prospect theory. In two experiments, we show that risk preferences may change over outcomes. While we find people to be risk seeking for small outcomes, this turns to risk neutrality and later risk aversion as stakes increase. We then show how a one-parameter logarithmic utility function fits such stake effects significantly better under prospect theory than the power or exponential functions mostly used when fitting prospect theory models. We further investigate the extent to which the use of ill-suited functional forms to represent utility may result in violations of prospect theory, and whether such violations disappear when using logarithmic utility

Empirical Distributions of F-ST from Large-Scale Human Polymorphism Data

Studies of the apportionment of human genetic variation have long established that most human variation is within population groups and that the additional variation between population groups is small but greatest when comparing different continental populations. These studies often used Wright’s FST that apportions the standardized variance in allele frequencies within and between population groups. Because local adaptations increase population differentiation, high-FST may be found at closely linked loci under selection and used to identify genes undergoing directional or heterotic selection. We re-examined these processes using HapMap data. We analyzed 3 million SNPs on 602 samples from eight worldwide populations and a consensus subset of 1 million SNPs found in all populations. We identified four major features of the data: First, a hierarchically FST analysis showed that only a paucity (12%) of the total genetic variation is distributed between continental populations and even a lesser genetic variation (1%) is found between intra-continental populations. Second, the global FST distribution closely follows an exponential distribution. Third, although the overall FST distribution is similarly shaped (inverse J), FST distributions varies markedly by allele frequency when divided into non-overlapping groups by allele frequency range. Because the mean allele frequency is a crude indicator of allele age, these distributions mark the time-dependent change in genetic differentiation. Finally, the change in mean-FST of these groups is linear in allele frequency. These results suggest that investigating the extremes of the FST distribution for each allele frequency group is more efficient for detecting selection. Consequently, we demonstrate that such extreme SNPs are more clustered along the chromosomes than expected from linkage disequilibrium for each allele frequency group. These genomic regions are therefore likely candidates for natural selection

Using social and behavioural science to support COVID-19 pandemic response

The COVID-19 pandemic represents a massive global health crisis. Because the crisis requires large-scale behaviour change and places significant psychological burdens on individuals, insights from the social and behavioural sciences can be used to help align human behavior with the recommendations of epidemiologists and public health experts. Here we discuss evidence from a selection of research topics relevant to pandemics, including work on navigating threats, social and cultural influences on behaviour, science communication, moral decision-making, leadership, and stress and coping. In each section, we note the nature and quality of prior research, including uncertainty and unsettled issues. We identify several insights for effective response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and also highlight important gaps researchers should move quickly to fill in the coming weeks and months