Prediction of ischemic heart disease and stroke in survivors of childhood cancer

Purpose We aimed to predict individual risk of ischemic heart disease and stroke in 5-year survivors of childhood cancer. Patients and Methods Participants in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS; n = 13,060) were observed through age 50 years for the development of ischemic heart disease and stroke. Siblings (n = 4,023) established the baseline population risk. Piecewise exponential models with backward selection estimated the relationships between potential predictors and each outcome. The St Jude Lifetime Cohort Study (n = 1,842) and the Emma Children's Hospital cohort (n = 1,362) were used to validate the CCSS models. Results Ischemic heart disease and stroke occurred in 265 and 295 CCSS participants, respectively. Risk scores based on a standard prediction model that included sex, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy (cranial, neck, and chest) exposures achieved an area under the curve and concordance statistic of 0.70 and 0.70 for ischemic heart disease and 0.63 and 0.66 for stroke, respectively. Validation cohort area under the curve and concordance statistics ranged from 0.66 to 0.67 for ischemic heart disease and 0.68 to 0.72 for stroke. Risk scores were collapsed to form statistically distinct low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups. The cumulative incidences at age 50 years among CCSS low-risk groups were < 5%, compared with approximately 20% for high-risk groups (P < .001); cumulative incidence was only 1% for siblings (P < .001 v low-risk survivors). Conclusion Information available to clinicians soon after completion of childhood cancer therapy can predict individual risk for subsequent ischemic heart disease and stroke with reasonable accuracy and discrimination through age 50 years. These models provide a framework on which to base future screening strategies and interventions

Possible modification of BRSK1 on the risk of alkylating chemotherapy-related reduced ovarian function

STUDY QUESTION: Do genetic variations in the DNA damage response pathway modify the adverse effect of alkylating agents on ovarian function in female childhood cancer survivors (CCS)? SUMMARY ANSWER: Female CCS carrying a common BR serine/threonine kinase 1 (BRSK1) gene variant appear to be at 2.5-fold increased odds of reduced ovarian function after treatment with high doses of alkylating chemotherapy. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Female CCS show large inter-individual variability in the impact of DNA-damaging alkylating chemotherapy, given as treatment of childhood cancer, on adult ovarian function. Genetic variants in DNA repair genes affecting ovarian function might explain this variability. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: CCS for the discovery cohort were identified from the Dutch Childhood Oncology Group (DCOG) LATER VEVO-study, a multi-centre retrospective cohort study evaluating fertility, ovarian reserve and risk of premature menopause among adult female 5-year survivors of childhood cancer. Female 5-year CCS, diagnosed with cancer and treated with chemotherapy before the age of 25 years, and aged 18 years or older at time of study were enrolled in the current study. Results from the discovery Dutch DCOG-LATER VEVO cohort (n = 285) were validated in the pan-European PanCareLIFE (n = 465) and the USA-based St. Jude Lifetime Cohort (n = 391). PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: To evaluate ovarian function, anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) levels were assessed in both the discovery cohort and the replication cohorts. Using additive genetic models in linear and logistic regression, five genetic variants involved in DNA damage response were analysed in relation to cyclophosphamide equivalent dose (CED) score and their impact on ovarian function. Results were then examined using fixed-effect meta-analysis. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Meta-analysis across the three independent cohorts showed a significant interaction effect (P = 3.0 × 10-4) between rs11668344 of BRSK1 (allele frequency = 0.34) among CCS treated with high-dose alkylating agents (CED score ≥8000 mg/m2), resulting in a 2.5-fold increased odds of a reduced ovarian function (lowest AMH tertile) for CCS carrying one G allele compared to CCS without this allele (odds ratio genotype AA: 2.01 vs AG: 5.00). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: While low AMH levels can also identify poor responders in assisted reproductive technology, it needs to be emphasized that AMH remains a surrogate marker of ovarian function. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Further research, validating our findings and identifying additional risk-contributing genetic variants, may enable individualized counselling regarding treatment-related risks and necessity of fertility preservation procedures in girls with cancer. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This work was supported by the PanCareLIFE project that has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 602030. In addition, the DCOG-LATER VEVO study was funded by the Dutch Cancer Society (Grant no. VU 2006-3622) and by the Children Cancer Free Foundation (Project no. 20) and the St Jude Lifetime cohort study by NCI U01 CA195547. The authors declare no competing interests. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A