Mortality forecasting in Colombia from abridged life tables by sex

[EN] BACKGROUND: An adequate forecasting model of mortality that allows an analysis of different population changes is a topic of interest for countries in demographic transition. Phenomena such as the reduction of mortality, ageing, and the increase in life expectancy are extremely useful in the planning of public policies that seek to promote the economic and social development of countries. To our knowledge, this paper is one of the first to evaluate the performance of mortality forecasting models applied to abridged life tables. OBJECTIVE: Select a mortality model that best describes and forecasts the characteristics of mortality in Colombia when only abridged life tables are available. DATA AND METHOD: We used Colombian abridged life tables for the period 1973-2005 with data from the Latin American Human Mortality Database. Different mortality models to deal with modeling and forecasting probability of death are presented in this study. For the comparison of mortality models, two criteria were analyzed: graphical residuals analysis and the hold-out method to evaluate the predictive performance of the models, applying different goodness of fit measures. RESULTS: Only three models did not have convergence problems: Lee-Carter (LC), Lee-Carter with two terms (LC2), and Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models. All models fit better for women, the improvement of LC2 on LC is mostly for central ages for men, and the APC model's fit is worse than the other two. The analysis of the standardized deviance residuals allows us to deduce that the models that reasonably fit the Colombian mortality data are LC and LC2. The major residuals correspond to children's ages and later ages for both sexes. CONCLUSION: The LC and LC2 models present better goodness of fit, identifying the principal characteristics of mortality for Colombia.Mortality forecasting from abridged life tables by sex has clear added value for studying differences between developing countries and convergence/divergence of demographic changes.Support for the research presented in this paper was provided by a grant from the Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad of Spain, project no. MTM2013-45381-P.Diaz-Rojo, G.; Debón Aucejo, AM.; Giner-Bosch, V. (2018). Mortality forecasting in Colombia from abridged life tables by sex. Genus. Journal of Population Sciences (Online). 74(15):1-23. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41118-018-0038-6S1237415Aburto, J.M., & García-Guerrero, V.M. (2015). El modelo aditivo doble multiplicativo. Una aplicacion a la mortalidad mexicaná. Papeles de Población, 21(84), 9–44.Acosta, K., & Romero, J. (2014). Cambios recientes en las principales causas de mortalidad en Colombia. 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Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

RAB8, RAB10 and RILPL1 contribute to both LRRK2 kinase-mediated centrosomal cohesion and ciliogenesis deficits

Mutations in the LRRK2 kinase are the most common cause of familial Parkinson's disease, and variants increase risk for the sporadic form of the disease. LRRK2 phosphorylates multiple RAB GTPases including RAB8A and RAB10. Phosphorylated RAB10 is recruited to centrosome-localized RILPL1, which may interfere with ciliogenesis in a disease-relevant context. Our previous studies indicate that the centrosomal accumulation of phosphorylated RAB8A causes centrosomal cohesion deficits in dividing cells, including in peripheral patient-derived cells. Here, we show that both RAB8 and RAB10 contribute to the centrosomal cohesion deficits. Pathogenic LRRK2 causes the centrosomal accumulation not only of phosho-RAB8 but also of phospho-RAB10, and the effects on centrosomal cohesion are dependent on RAB8, RAB10 and RILPL1. Conversely, the pathogenic LRRK2-mediated ciliogenesis defects correlate with the centrosomal accumulation of both phospho-RAB8 and phospho-RAB10. LRRK2-mediated centrosomal cohesion and ciliogenesis alterations are observed in patient-derived peripheral cells, as well as in primary astrocytes from mutant LRRK2 mice, and are reverted upon LRRK2 kinase inhibition. These data suggest that the LRRK2-mediated centrosomal cohesion and ciliogenesis defects are distinct cellular readouts of the same underlying phospho-RAB8/RAB10/RILPL1 nexus and highlight the possibility that either centrosomal cohesion and/or ciliogenesis alterations may serve as cellular biomarkers for LRRK2-related PD.Michael J. Fox Foundation for Parkinson’s research (to S.H.); European Regional Development Fund; Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (SAF2017-89402-R to S.H.); Spanish Ministry of Education, Culture and Sport (FPU15/05233 to A.J.L.O.)

Efectos de un entrenamiento con cargas excéntricas sobre el rendimiento en jugadores de fútbol sala.

The aim of the study was to analyze the effects of a specific 8 week training program that includes eccentric strengthening exercises with isoinertial machines on the physical fitness of semi-professional futsal players. The 10 players (23.73±5.5 years; 69.91±8.47 kg; 172.27±6.62 cm) were randomly divided into two groups: Group body weight (GAUT; n = 5) and Group Machines (GMAQ, n = 5). Both groups conducted an eccentric loading training session per week for 8 competition microcycles. The player was evaluated before (pre-test), at the end (post-test) and 2 weeks after (re-test) the training program. The tests used were: sit-and-reach test; "squat jump" test (SJ) and “countermovement jump" (CMJ); linear velocity 30 m test with change of direction. The analysis through the Wilcoxon test statistic showed significant improvements in CMJ GAUT (p ≤ 0.05), the linear velocity and the change of direction test in GAUT (p≤0.05) and GMAQ (p≤0.01) speed, but no intergroup differences have been found in any of the variables studied. The results indicate that the eccentric loading exercises may be an effective complement to the specific training programs for futsal players due to its positive impact on important performance variables such as non linear speed.El objetivo del estudio ha sido analizar los efectos de un programa de entrenamiento específico de 8 semanas, que incluye ejercicios de fuerza excéntrica con dispositivos isoinerciales y con autocargas, sobre la condición física de jugadores de fútbol-sala semi-profesionales. Los 10 jugadores de fútbol-sala (23.73±5.5 años de edad;69.91±8.47 kg de peso; 172.27±6.62 cm de altura) fueron divididos al azar en dos grupos: Grupo Autocarga (GAUT; n=5) y Grupo Máquinas (GMAQ; n=5). Ambos grupos realizaron una sesión de entrenamiento con carga excéntrica a la semana, durante 8 microciclos de competición.  El futbolista fue evaluado antes (pre-test), nada más finaliar (post-test) y 2 semanas después (re-test) de acabar el programa de intervención. Los test empleados fueron: test de flexibilidad sit-and-reach; test salto “squatjump” (SJ) y “countermovementjump” (CMJ); test de velocidad lineal 30-m; test de velocidad con cambio de dirección. El análisis a través de la prueba estadística Wilcoxon, reflejó mejoras significativas en el CMJ en el GAUT (p≤0.05),  la velocidad lineal y en la prueba con cambio de dirección en el GAUT (p≤0.05) y GMAQ (p≤0.01), pero no  se han encontrado diferencias intergrupo en ninguna de las variables estudiadas. Los resultados indican que los ejercicios de carga excéntrica pueden ser un complemento eficaz en los programas de entrenamiento específicos de jugadores de fútbol-sala, debido a su incidencia positiva sobre variables de rendimiento importantes como la velocidad no lineal.

Effects of training with eccentric loads on the performance of futsal players

El objetivo del estudio ha sido analizar los efectos de un programa de entrenamiento específico de 8 semanas, que incluye ejercicios de fuerza excéntrica con dispositivos isoinerciales y con autocargas, sobre la condición física de jugadores de fútbol-sala semi-profesionales. Los 10 jugadores de fútbol-sala (23.73±5.5 años de edad;69.91±8.47 kg de peso; 172.27±6.62 cm de altura) fueron divididos al azar en dos grupos: Grupo Autocarga (GAUT; n=5) y Grupo Máquinas (GMAQ; n=5). Ambos grupos realizaron una sesión de entrenamiento con carga excéntrica a la semana, durante 8 microciclos de competición.  El futbolista fue evaluado antes (pre-test), nada más finaliar (post-test) y 2 semanas después (re-test) de acabar el programa de intervención. Los test empleados fueron: test de flexibilidad sit-and-reach; test salto "squatjump" (SJ) y "countermovementjump" (CMJ); test de velocidad lineal 30-m; test de velocidad con cambio de dirección. El análisis a través de la prueba estadística Wilcoxon, reflejó mejoras significativas en el CMJ en el GAUT,  la velocidad lineal y en la prueba con cambio de dirección en el GAUT y GMAQ, pero no  se han encontrado diferencias intergrupo en ninguna de las variables estudiadas. Los resultados indican que los ejercicios de carga excéntrica pueden ser un complemento eficaz en los programas de entrenamiento específicos de jugadores de fútbol-sala, debido a su incidencia positiva sobre variables de rendimiento importantes como la velocidad no lineal. ABSTRACT: The aim of the study was to analyze the effects of a specific 8 week training program that includes eccentric strengthening exercises with isoinertial machines on the physical fitness of semi-professional futsal players. The 10 players (23.73±5.5 years; 69.91±8.47 kg; 172.27±6.62 cm) were randomly divided into two groups: Group body weight (GAUT; n = 5) and Group Machines (GMAQ, n = 5). Both groups conducted an eccentric loading training session per week for 8 competition microcycles. The player was evaluated before (pre-test), at the end (post-test) and 2 weeks after (re-test) the training program. The tests used were: sit-and-reach test; "squat jump" test (SJ) and "countermovement jump" (CMJ); linear velocity 30 m test with change of direction. The analysis through the Wilcoxon test statistic showed significant improvements in CMJ GAUT, the linear velocity and the change of direction test in GAUT and GMAQ speed, but no intergroup differences have been found in any of the variables studied. The results indicate that the eccentric loading exercises may be an effective complement to the specific training programs for futsal players due to its positive impact on important performance variables such as non linear speed