The growth of bilateralism

One of the most notable international economic events over the past 20 years has been the proliferation of bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs). Bilateral agreements account for 80 percent of all agreements notified to the WTO, 94 percent of those signed or under negotiation, and currently 100 percent of those at the proposal stage. Some have argued that the growth of bilateralism is attributable to governments having pursued a policy of “competitive liberalization" - implementing bilateral FTAs to offset potential trade diversion caused by FTAs of “third-country-pairs" - but the growth of bilateralism can also be attributed potentially to “tariff complementarity" - the incentive for FTA members to reduce their external tariffs on nonmembers. Guided by new comparative statics from the numerical general equilibrium monopolistic competition model of FTA economic determinants in Baier and Bergstrand (2004), we augment their parsimonious logit (and probit) model of the economic determinants of bilateral FTAs to incorporate theory-motivated indexes to examine the influence of existing memberships on subsequent FTA formations. The model can predict correctly 90 percent of the bilateral FTAs within five years of their formation, while still predicting “No-FTA" correctly in 90 percent of the observations when no FTA exists, using a sample of over 350,000 observations for pairings of 146 countries from 1960-2005. Even imposing the higher correct prediction rate of “No-FTA" of 97 percent in Baier and Bergstrand (2004), the parsimonious model still predicts correctly 75 percent of these rare FTA events; only 3 percent of the observations reflect a country-pair having an FTA in any year. The results suggest that - while evidence supports that “competitive liberalization" is a force for bilateralism - the effect on the likelihood a pair of countries forming an FTA of the pair's own FTAs with other countries (i.e., tariff complementarity) is likely just as important as the effect of third-country-pairs' FTAs (i.e., competitive liberalization) for the growth of bilateralism

BAW-Brief Nr. 3 – April 2012

612-B, Bautechnik, Untersuchungen zu Zwischenhaftungsproblemen bei Korrosionsschutzbeschichtungen für den Stahlhochba

On the Observation of Vacuum Birefringence

We suggest an experiment to observe vacuum birefringence induced by intense laser fields. A high-intensity laser pulse is focused to ultra-relativistic intensity and polarizes the vacuum which then acts like a birefringent medium. The latter is probed by a linearly polarized x-ray pulse. We calculate the resulting ellipticity signal within strong-field QED assuming Gaussian beams. The laser technology required for detecting the signal will be available within the next three years.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Case report: Otitis media with subsequent mastoiditis and cerebral herniation in a patient with Arnold chiari malformation

We present the case of a 13-year-old boy who unexpectedly needed to be resuscitated at home after an assumed uncomplicated otitis media. Imaging at our clinic showed mastoiditis and a cystoid mass in the left cerebellopontine angle compressing the brainstem, as well as an Arnold-Chiari-Malformation. Both the laboratory examination of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and surgical biopsy with pathological evaluation of the mastoid supported the inflammatory etiology of the mass. Microbiologically, Streptococcus intermedius was detected in the blood culture and CSF. Due to brain death, which most likely already existed preclinically, the organs were released for donation during the course. Our case demonstrates a very rare lethal complication of acute otitis media on the basis of a cerebral malformation and emphasizes the need to stay alert when patients complain of symptoms after assumed resolution