Economic Growth and Human Capital: Methodology to Simulate a Lucas Model variant with application for Mexico

Este trabajo tiene como principal objetivo plantear una variante del modelo de crecimiento de Lucas (1988) que pueda fácilmente ser sujeta a ejercicios de calibración y simulación. Un segundo objetivo es calibrar y simular el modelo propuesto para el caso de México. Para lograr lo anterior, se parte del modelo original de Lucas (1988) y de la estructura de ahorro-inversión propuesta por Solow (1956, 1957). El ejercicio de calibración-simulación para México muestra que aumentar el crecimiento del producto per cápita en este país en sólo unas décimas requiere un esfuerzo de ahorro adicional difícil de generar en los próximos años, por lo cual es posible que el crecimiento del futuro cercano siga siendo bajo. La metodología propuesta puede generar un sesgo donde el crecimiento depende en exceso de la trayectoria de capital humano, eso sucede en modelos del tipo de Lucas (1988, 2009). Sin embargo, las formas reducidas del modelo planteado pueden calibrarse y simularse con relativa facilidad para la mayoría de los países que tienen información bases de datos públicas, como en la Penn World Table. The main objective of this paper is to set a variant of the Lucas (1988) model that may be easily calibrated and simulated. A second goal is to calibrate and simulate the proposed model for México. To achieve the previous objectives, we draw from the original Lucas (1988) model and the saving-investment structure proposed by Solow (1956, 1957). A calibration-simulation exercise for México shows that in order to increase the growth of the product per capita by less than one percentage, it is necessary to generate an additional savings, which is difficult to generate in the coming years. For this reason, growth in this country quite possibly will continue being low in the following years. The proposed methodology may generate a bias where growth depends in excess of the trajectory of human capital, which happens in Lucas type models (Lucas 1988, 2009). However, the reduced forms of the proposed model may be calibrated and simulated with relative ease for the majority of the countries that have information in public databases, like the Penn World Table

Credibility and business cycles in exchange rate based stabilization programmes.

Differently from orthodox stabilization programmes, exchange rate based stabilization programmes (ERBS) show a peculiar cycle. Output, growth and consumption rise from the onset and there is a huge current account deficit. Since several programmes have been accompanied by huge capital inflows, the economic cycle is known as the capital inflows problem. The economic literature has identified the capital inflows problem with a situation where there is not fiscal adjustment or people do not believe in the programme (see chapter two). However, chapter one of this thesis shows that the cycle has been observed in successful and consistent programmes (Argentina 1991- , Bolivia 1985- , Israel 1985- and Mexico 1987-1994). It has been also observed in absence of capital inflows (Mexico 1988). Furthermore, some of its negatives consequences (eg balance of payments crises) have occurred in programmes under fiscal adjustment. These observations deserve an explanation. Chapter two makes a review of the literature about the economic effects of ERBS. Chapter three questions why successful ERBS have observed, increases in long run growth and/or output from the onset and also the symptoms of the capital inflows problem (higher consumption, current account deficits). To answer the question, the chapter sets a growth model in a cash in advance economy. The main results are that sluggish disinflation can increase the long run growth and definitely increases the long run output of the economy. However, it cannot explain the symptoms of the capital inflows problem by itself. When the model is extended to capture some externalities, then it suggests that the structural policies accompanying successful ERBS are responsible of higher consumption and current account deficits. In those cases, that situation is not a problem. Chapter four questions why the symptoms of the capital inflows problem may appear in absence of capital inflows. The answer is that these symptoms emerge when there is lack of credibility and the monetary policy is accommodative. In this context, actual fiscal policy is irrelevant to combat the problem if it cannot change expectations of future inflation. Monetary policy is effective but often produces huge fiscal costs since real interest rates have to rise considerably. When the actual fiscal deficit increases the future expected inflation, tight monetary policy may generate a perverse effect fuelling the symptoms of the problem. Chapter five questions why ERBS that apparently are consistent may be subject to the capital inflows problem and eventually to balance of payments crises. Political factors are responsible of this situation. The chapter sets a model that resembles the Mexican political system. Actual government chooses its successor. The former has incentives to choose a future candidate with preferences for high inflation. People, forecasting this possibility, consumes more in periods of low inflation. That generates the capital inflows problem. Chapter six concludes

Solucionando necesidades tecnológicas con zentyal 7.0 development

Se abordan temáticas puntuales como DHCP y DNS Server, Controlador de Dominio, Proxy no Transparente, Cortafuegos, File y Print Server, así como Virtual Private Network a través de Zentyal Development 7.0 que, gracias a su interfaz Figura y amigable, permite la puesta en marcha de estos servicios los cuales brindan seguridad tecnológica y potencializan el desarrollo de las sociedades.Specific topics such as DHCP and DNS Server, Domain Controller, Non-Transparent Proxy, Firewall, File and Print Server are addressed, as well as Virtual Private Network through Zentyal Development 7.0 that, thanks to its graphical and friendly interface, allows the implementation operation of these services which provide technological security and enhance the development of societies

Malaria seroepidemiology in very low transmission settings in the Peruvian Amazon

Despite progress towards malaria reduction in Peru, measuring exposure in low transmission areas is crucial for achieving elimination. This study focuses on two very low transmission areas in Loreto (Peruvian Amazon) and aims to determine the relationship between malaria exposure and proximity to health facilities. Individual data was collected from 38 villages in Indiana and Belen, including geo-referenced households and blood samples for microscopy, PCR and serological analysis. A segmented linear regression model identified significant changes in seropositivity trends among different age groups. Local Getis-Ord Gi* statistic revealed clusters of households with high (hotspots) or low (coldspots) seropositivity rates. Findings from 4000 individuals showed a seropositivity level of 2.5% (95%CI: 2.0%-3.0%) for P. falciparum and 7.8% (95%CI: 7.0%-8.7%) for P. vivax, indicating recent or historical exposure. The segmented regression showed exposure reductions in the 40–50 age group (β1 = 0.043, p = 0.003) for P. vivax and the 50–60 age group (β1 = 0.005, p = 0.010) for P. falciparum. Long and extreme distance villages from Regional Hospital of Loreto exhibited higher malaria exposure compared to proximate and medium distance villages (p < 0.001). This study showed the seropositivity of malaria in two very low transmission areas and confirmed the spatial pattern of hotspots as villages become more distant

Clonal chromosomal mosaicism and loss of chromosome Y in elderly men increase vulnerability for SARS-CoV-2

The pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19) had an estimated overall case fatality ratio of 1.38% (pre-vaccination), being 53% higher in males and increasing exponentially with age. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, we found 133 cases (1.42%) with detectable clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations (mCA) and 226 males (5.08%) with acquired loss of chromosome Y (LOY). Individuals with clonal mosaic events (mCA and/or LOY) showed a 54% increase in the risk of COVID-19 lethality. LOY is associated with transcriptomic biomarkers of immune dysfunction, pro-coagulation activity and cardiovascular risk. Interferon-induced genes involved in the initial immune response to SARS-CoV-2 are also down-regulated in LOY. Thus, mCA and LOY underlie at least part of the sex-biased severity and mortality of COVID-19 in aging patients. Given its potential therapeutic and prognostic relevance, evaluation of clonal mosaicism should be implemented as biomarker of COVID-19 severity in elderly people. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, individuals with clonal mosaic events (clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations and/or loss of chromosome Y) showed an increased risk of COVID-19 lethality

The Unpleasant Arithmetic of the Taylor Rule

This paper analyzes the effect of a monetary policy that raises the reference interest rate in order to reduce inflation in a situation where the fiscal policy parameters remain constant. In an overlapping generation’s model and in the presence of an accelerationist Phillips curve and a Taylor rule of interest rates, it is observed that increasing the independent component of said rule leads to a solution that at least in a large number of cases is unstable. In the case where the elasticity of substitution is greater than one, inflation falls temporarily, but then it can increase in an unstable manner. One way to achieve stability is to establish an interest rate rule where Taylor’s principle is not met. However, in this case many times the increase in the independent component of this rule will generate greater long-term inflation