Risk Factors for Long-Term Coronary Artery Calcium Progression in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

BackgroundCoronary artery calcium (CAC) detected by noncontrast cardiac computed tomography scanning is a measure of coronary atherosclerosis burden. Increasing CAC levels have been strongly associated with increased coronary events. Prior studies of cardiovascular disease risk factors and CAC progression have been limited by short follow-up or restricted to patients with advanced disease.Methods and resultsWe examined cardiovascular disease risk factors and CAC progression in a prospective multiethnic cohort study. CAC was measured 1 to 4 times (mean 2.5 scans) over 10 years in 6810 adults without preexisting cardiovascular disease. Mean CAC progression was 23.9 Agatston units/year. An innovative application of mixed-effects models investigated associations between cardiovascular disease risk factors and CAC progression. This approach adjusted for time-varying factors, was flexible with respect to follow-up time and number of observations per participant, and allowed simultaneous control of factors associated with both baseline CAC and CAC progression. Models included age, sex, study site, scanner type, and race/ethnicity. Associations were observed between CAC progression and age (14.2 Agatston units/year per 10 years [95% CI 13.0 to 15.5]), male sex (17.8 Agatston units/year [95% CI 15.3 to 20.3]), hypertension (13.8 Agatston units/year [95% CI 11.2 to 16.5]), diabetes (31.3 Agatston units/year [95% CI 27.4 to 35.3]), and other factors.ConclusionsCAC progression analyzed over 10 years of follow-up, with a novel analytical approach, demonstrated strong relationships with risk factors for incident cardiovascular events. Longitudinal CAC progression analyzed in this framework can be used to evaluate novel cardiovascular risk factors

The relationship of circulating fibroblast growth factor 21 levels with pericardial fat: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

Previous small studies have reported an association between circulating fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) levels and pericardial fat volume in post-menopausal women and high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk patients. In this study, we investigated the relationship of FGF21 levels with pericardial fat volume in participants free of clinical CVD at baseline. We analysed data from 5765 men and women from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) with both pericardial fat volume and plasma FGF21 levels measured at baseline. 4746 participants had pericardial fat volume measured in at least one follow-up exam. After adjusting for confounding factors, ln-transformed FGF21 levels were positively associated with pericardial fat volume at baseline (β = 0.055, p < 0.001). When assessing change in pericardial fat volume over a mean duration of 3.0 years using a linear mixed-effects model, higher baseline FGF21 levels were associated with higher pericardial fat volume at baseline (2.381 cm3 larger in pericardial fat volume per one SD increase in ln-transformed FGF21 levels), but less pericardial fat accumulation over time (0.191 cm3/year lower per one SD increase in ln-transformed FGF21 levels). Cross-sectionally, higher plasma FGF21 levels were significantly associated with higher pericardial fat volume, independent of traditional CVD risk factors and inflammatory markers. However, higher FGF21 levels tended to be associated with less pericardial fat accumulation over time. Nevertheless, such change in pericardial fat volume is very modest and could be due to measurement error. Further studies are needed to elucidate the longitudinal relationship of baseline FGF21 levels with pericardial fat accumulation

Nonparametric percentile curve estimation for a nonnegative marker with excessive zeros

Norm curves for the head circumference, height, and weight of newborns and infants are widely known examples of percentile curves over age, and early accounts date back 50 years. The advent of the Agatston score for coronary calcification based on coronary computed tomography in 1990 heralded the era of a new marker in preventive medicine, in addition to well-known cardiovascular risk factors. A peculiarity of the nonnegative Agatston score in populations that are free of coronary artery disease is the overexpression of zeros. In a case study, we have demonstrated a nonparametric approach for percentile curve estimation using markers such as the Agatston score. This method is based on lowess smoothing of marker-positive scores on age, and the resulting percentile curves are subsequently transposed according to the estimated proportions of zeros. The approach does not involve any parametric assumptions, is robust against outliers, and fulfills the noncrossing property for percentile curves. A simulation study using samples of N=1,000, 2,000, 5,000, and 10,000 subjects illuminates the closeness of the estimated 50th, 75th, and 90th percentile curves to the respective true curves, assuming an exponentially distributed marker and a proportion of zero scores that increase with age.•The method is applicable to highly skewed data and exemplified here with subgroup data of the referenced procedure.•The consistency and general performance of the method is shown by means of simulation.•The method is an explicit, transferable, and reproducible procedure that is applicable to a wide spectrum of markers and scores across various scientific disciplines, far beyond cardiovascular medicine.</p

Associations of recreational and non-recreational physical activity with coronary artery calcium density vs. volume and cardiovascular disease events: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

AimsThe benefits of physical activity (PA) on cardiovascular disease (CVD) are well known. However, studies suggest PA is associated with coronary artery calcium (CAC), a subclinical marker of CVD. In this study, we evaluated the associations of self-reported recreational and non-recreational PA with CAC composition and incident CVD events. Prior studies suggest high CAC density may be protective for CVD events.Methods and resultsWe evaluated 3393 participants of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis with prevalent CAC. After adjusting for demographics, the highest quintile of recreational PA was associated with 0.07 (95% confidence interval 0.01-0.13) units greater CAC density but was not associated with CAC volume. In contrast, the highest quintile of non-recreational PA was associated with 0.08 (0.02-0.14) units lower CAC density and a trend toward 0.13 (-0.01 to 0.27) log-units higher CAC volume. There were 520 CVD events over a 13.7-year median follow-up. Recreational PA was associated with lower CVD risk (hazard ratio 0.88, 0.79-0.98, per standard deviation), with an effect size that was not changed with adjustment for CAC composition or across levels of prevalent CAC.ConclusionRecreational PA may be associated with a higher density but not a higher volume of CAC. Non-recreational PA may be associated with lower CAC density, suggesting these forms of PA may not have equivalent associations with this subclinical marker of CVD. While PA may affect the composition of CAC, the associations of PA with CVD risk appear to be independent of CAC

Importance of the lipid-related pathways in the association between statins, mortality and cardiovascular disease risk : the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis

PURPOSE: Estimating how much of the impact of statins on coronary heart diseases (CHD), cardiovascular disease (CVD), and mortality risk is attributable to their effect on low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), and triglycerides. METHODS: A semi-parametric g-formula estimator together with data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (a prospective multi-center cohort study) was utilized to perform a mediation analysis. A total of 5280 participants, men and women of various race/ethnicities from multiple sites across the United States, were considered in the current study. RESULTS: The adherence adjusted total relative risk reduction (RRR) estimate (95% confidence interval) of statins on CHD was 14% (-16%, 37%), and the indirect component through LDL was 23% (-4%, 58%). For CVD, the total RRR was 23% (2%, 40%), and the indirect component through LDL was 5% (-13%, 25%). The total RRR of mortality was 18% (-1%, 35%), and the indirect component through LDL was -4% (-17%, 12%). The estimated indirect components through HDL and triglycerides were close to zero with narrow confidence intervals for all 3 outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated effect of statins on mortality, CVD, and CHD appeared to be independent of their estimated effect on HDL and triglycerides. Our study provides evidence that the preventive effect of statins on CHD could be attributed in large part to their effect on LDL. Our g-formula estimator is a promising approach to elucidate pathways, even if it is hard to make firm conclusions for the LDL pathway on mortality and CV

The association of circulating fibroblast growth factor 21 levels with incident heart failure: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

BackgroundFibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) levels are often elevated in heart failure (HF), although this has not been assessed using a longitudinal study design. Therefore, we investigated the association between baseline plasma FGF21 levels and incident HF in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).MethodsA total of 5408 participants, free of clinically apparent cardiovascular disease, were included in the analysis, of which 342 developed HF over a median follow-up period of 16.7&nbsp;years. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was performed and the additive value of FGF21 in the performance of risk prediction over other well-established cardiovascular biomarkers was assessed.ResultsThe mean age of the participants was 62.6&nbsp;years with 47.6&nbsp;% male. Regression spline analysis demonstrated a significant association of FGF21 levels with incident HF among participants with FGF21 levels ≥239.0&nbsp;pg/mL (hazard ratio&nbsp;=&nbsp;1.84 [95&nbsp;% confidence interval 1.21, 2.80] per SD increase in ln-transformed levels) after adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors and biomarkers, but not in participants with FGF21 levels &lt;239.0&nbsp;pg/mL (p for heterogeneity&nbsp;=&nbsp;0.004). Among participants with FGF21 levels ≥239.0&nbsp;pg/mL, FGF21 levels were associated with HF with preserved ejection fraction (HR [95&nbsp;% CI]&nbsp;=&nbsp;2.57 [1.51, 4.37]), but not HF with reduced ejection fraction.ConclusionsThe present study suggests baseline FGF21 levels could predict the development of incident HF with preserved ejection fraction, among participants with elevated FGF21 levels at baseline. This study may suggest a pathophysiological role of FGF21 resistance in HF with preserved ejection fraction

Higher leptin is associated with hypertension: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Adipokines are secreted from adipose tissue, influence energy homeostasis and may contribute to the association between obesity and hypertension. Among 1897 participants enrolled in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, we examined associations between blood pressure and leptin, tumor necrosis factor-α (TNFα), resistin and total adiponectin. The mean age and body mass index (BMI) was 64.7 years and 28.1, respectively, and 50% were female. After adjustment for risk factors, a 1-s.d.-increment higher leptin level was significantly associated with higher systolic (5.0 mm Hg), diastolic (1.9), mean arterial (2.8) and pulse pressures (3.6), as well as a 34% higher odds for being hypertensive (P<0.01 for all). These associations were not materially different when the other adipokines, as well as BMI, waist circumference or waist-to-hip ratio, were additionally added to the model. Notably, the associations between leptin and hypertension were stronger in men, but were not different by race/ethnic group, BMI or smoking status. Adiponectin, resistin and TNFα were not independently associated with blood pressure or hypertension. Higher serum leptin, but not adiponectin, resistin or TNFα, is associated with higher levels of all measures of blood pressure, as well as a higher odds of hypertension, independent of risk factors, anthropometric measures and other selected adipokines

Time trends in the use of anti-hypertensive medications: Results from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Background: Previous reports have suggested that new evidence of the comparative effectiveness of different medication classes from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) does not always alter treatment decisions for first-line anti-hypertensive therapy. Objectives: To evaluate the association of RCT evidence in December 2002 from the Anti-hypertensive and Lipid-Lowering treatment to prevent Heart Attack Trial (ALLHAT) on use of anti-hypertensive medications in a multi-ethnic cohort. Methods: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) study, a prospective cohort study of 6814 adults from four ethnic groups, had four separate assessments of drug use. Users of anti-hypertensive medications at baseline were excluded. We evaluated temporal changes in the medication class reported by new users of anti-hypertensive medications. Results: After the exclusion of anti-hypertensive drug users at baseline, 32% of new users of anti-hypertensive drugs seen at exam 2 were prescribed a diuretic. The publication of ALLHATwas associated with a subsequent increase in the proportion of new users taking diuretics at exam 3 compared with exam 2 (relative risk (RR): 1.31; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09-1.59). After the report from ALLHAT, the proportion of users of diuretics seen at exam 3 rose to 44% (starting in 2004) and 39% in exam 4 (starting in 2005). This increase in the proportion of diuretic use among new users of anti-hypertensive medications declined slightly but could still be detected at exam 4 as compared to exam 2 (RR: 1.28; 95%CI: 1.04-1.57). Conclusions: The randomized trial evidence from the ALLHAT study was temporally associated with a moderate increase in diuretic use. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Effects of antiplatelet therapy on stroke risk by brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases: subgroup analyses of the RESTART randomised, open-label trial

Background Findings from the RESTART trial suggest that starting antiplatelet therapy might reduce the risk of recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage compared with avoiding antiplatelet therapy. Brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases (such as cerebral microbleeds) are associated with greater risks of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage. We did subgroup analyses of the RESTART trial to explore whether these brain imaging features modify the effects of antiplatelet therapy