A Risk Assessment Model on Pine Wood Nematode in the EU

Pine wood nematode, B. xylophilus poses a serious threat for the European forest industry. This study applies a quantitative risk assessment to analyze the risk of pine wood nematode in the EU, by estimating the reduction expected within forestry stock available for wood supply and its downstream roundwood market. Spatial analysis is used to join information on climate suitability, host distribution, pest spread and value of assets. Economic impacts are presented spatially on a NUTS-2 scale based on partial budgeting technique and for the EU as a whole based on partial equilibrium modeling. Results highlight the Southern regions of Europe as high risk areas with a total impact on available forestry stock of 19,000 M € after 20 years of an outbreak and no regulatory control measures. Welfare analysis of the roundwood market, in which its production represents 2,5% of forestry stock, demonstrates the ability of the producers to pass most of the negative impact to the consumers by charging higher prices. Reduction in social welfare estimated at 2,043 M €, where consumer surplus decreased by 2,622 M € and net producer surplus, affected and non-affected producers, increased by 579 M €.Risk assessment, pine wood nematode, economic analysis, EU, Crop Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty,

Thermo-mechanical behaviour of a compacted swelling clay

Compacted unsaturated swelling clay is often considered as a possible buffer material for deep nuclear waste disposal. An isotropic cell permitting simultaneous control of suction, temperature and pressure was used to study the thermo-mechanical behaviour of this clay. Tests were performed at total suctions ranging from 9 to 110 MPa, temperature from 25 to 80 degrees C, isotropic pressure from 0.1 to 60 MPa. It was observed that heating at constant suction and pressure induces either swelling or contraction. The results from compression tests at constant suction and temperature evidenced that at lower suction, the yield pressure was lower, the elastic compressibility parameter and the plastic compressibility parameter were higher. On the other hand, at a similar suction, the yield pressure was slightly influenced by the temperature; and the compressibility parameters were insensitive to temperature changes. The thermal hardening phenomenon was equally evidenced by following a thermo-mechanical path of loading-heating-cooling-reloading

A suite of models to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis

In the frame of the EU project PRATIQUE (KBBE-2007-212459 Enhancements of pest risk analysis techniques) a suite of models was developed to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis. This dataset contains the model codes (R language) for the four models in the suite. Three versions of the code are provided, differing in grid and spatial extent: (1) a decimal degree grid version for Europe; (2) a metric grid version for Europe and (3) a decimal degree grid version for other parts of the world. Usage of the code is described in the “Tutorial on the generic spread models“. Case studies were conducted with the decimal degree version, using European maps of climate suitability and presence of host or habitat for seven species: (1) Diabrotica virgifera virgifera, (2) Anoplophora chinensis, (3) Anoplophora glabripennis, (4) Eichhornia crassipes; (5) Meloidogyne enterolobii, (6) Bursaphelenchus xylophilus / Monochamus, (7) Gibberella circinata. See the “Description of case studies“ for details. Further background can be found in the publication: Robinet C, Kehlenbeck H, Kriticos DJ, Baker RHA, Battisti A, Brunel S, Dupin M, Eyre D, Faccoli M, Ilieva Z, Kenis M, Knight J, Reynaud P, Yart A, van der Werf W (2012) A suite of models to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis. PLoS ON

Rapport final du projet européen CatClay sur les processus de migration des cations dans les roches argileuses indurées

International audienceIn the framework of the feasibility studies on the radioactive waste disposal in deep argillaceous formations, it isnow well established that the transport properties of solutes in clay rocks, i.e. parameter values for Fick’s law, are mainlygoverned by the negatively charged clay mineral surface. While a good understanding of the diffusive behaviour of non-reactiveanionic and neutral species is now achieved, much effort has to be placed on improving understanding of coupledsorption/diffusion phenomena for sorbing cations. Indeed, several cations known to form highly stable surface complexes withsites on mineral surfaces migrate more deeply into clay rock than expected. Therefore, the overall objective of the EC CatClayproject is to address this issue, using a ‘bottom-up’ approach, in which simpler, analogous systems (here a compacted clay,‘pure’ illite) are experimentally studied and modelled, and then the transferability of these results to more complex materials, i.e.the clay rocks under consideration in France, Switzerland and Belgium for hosting radioactive waste disposal facilities, isverified. The cations of interest were chosen for covering a representative range of cations families: from a moderately sorbingcation, the strontium, to three strongly sorbing cations, Co(II), Zn(II) and Eu(III). For the 4 years of this project, much effort wasdevoted to developing and applying specific experimental methods needed for acquiring the high precision, reliable data neededto test the alternative hypotheses represented by different conceptual-numerical models. The enhanced diffusion of the sorbingcations of interest was confirmed both in the simpler analogous illite system for Sr2+, Co(II) and Zn(II), but also in the naturalclay rocks, except for Eu(III). First modelling approach including diffusion in the diffuse double layer (DDL) promisinglysucceeded in reproducing the experimental data under the various conditions both in illite and clay rocks, even though someassumptions made have to be verified. In parallel, actual 3D geometrical pore size distributions of compacted illite, and in lessextent, clay rock samples, were successfully determined by combining TEM and FIB-nt analyses on materials maintained in awater-like saturation state by means of an extensive impregnation step. Based on this spatial distribution of pores, first numericaldiffusion experiments were carried at the pore scale through virtual illite, enabling a better understanding of how transferpathways are organized in the porous media. Finally, the EC CatClay project allowed a better understanding of the migration ofstrongly sorbing tracers through low permeability ‘clay rock’ formations, increasing confidence in our capacity to demonstratethat the models used to predict radionuclide migration through these rocks are scientifically sound

3D global hydrodynamic stability analysis of a diffusion flame

This work investigates the three-dimensional global hydrodynamic stability of a diffusion flame. The low-Mach-number (LMN) Navier-Stokes (NS) equations for reacting flows are solved together with a transport equation for the mixture fraction. A source term is added to the energy conservation equation to model the chemical heat release as a function of the Damk¨ohler (Da) number and of the reaction rate, computed according to an Arrhenius law. The global stability analysis has been performed by a matrix-free time-stepper approach applied to the LMN-NS equations, using an Arnoldi method to compute the most unstable modes. Increasing the value of Da, direct numerical simulations show a transition from an oscillating unstable regime towards a stable one. In the unstable regime, stability analyses show two different flame behaviours: a highly unstable weak-flame and a typical diffusion flame. In the latter case, two different families of modes have been identified: the low-frequency most unstable one related to the premixing zone of the flame and a high-frequency stable branch representative of the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability of the diffusive rear region of the flame. The present three-dimensional stability analysis has been able to compute, for the first time, the eigenmodes responsible for the cellular structure of the flame

Gravitational waves: search results, data analysis and parameter estimation

The Amaldi 10 Parallel Session C2 on gravitational wave (GW) search results, data analysis and parameter estimation included three lively sessions of lectures by 13 presenters, and 34 posters. The talks and posters covered a huge range of material, including results and analysis techniques for ground-based GW detectors, targeting anticipated signals from different astrophysical sources: compact binary inspiral, merger and ringdown; GW bursts from intermediate mass binary black hole mergers, cosmic string cusps, core-collapse supernovae, and other unmodeled sources; continuous waves from spinning neutron stars; and a stochastic GW background. There was considerable emphasis on Bayesian techniques for estimating the parameters of coalescing compact binary systems from the gravitational waveforms extracted from the data from the advanced detector network. This included methods to distinguish deviations of the signals from what is expected in the context of General Relativity

Framework for modelling economic impacts of invasive species, applied to pine wood nematode in Europe

Background Economic impact assessment of invasive species requires integration of information on pest entry, establishment and spread, valuation of assets at risk and market consequences at large spatial scales. Here we develop such a framework and demonstrate its application to the pinewood nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, which threatens the European forestry industry. The effect of spatial resolution on the assessment result is analysed. Methodology/Principal Findings Direct economic impacts resulting from wood loss are computed using partial budgeting at regional scale, while impacts on social welfare are computed by a partial equilibrium analysis of the round wood market at EU scale. Substantial impacts in terms of infested stock are expected in Portugal, Spain, Southern France, and North West Italy but not elsewhere in EU in the near future. The cumulative value of lost forestry stock over a period of 22 years (2008–2030), assuming no regulatory control measures, is estimated at €22 billion. The greatest yearly loss of stock is expected to occur in the period 2014–2019, with a peak of three billion euros in 2016, but stabilizing afterwards at 300–800 million euros/year. The reduction in social welfare follows the loss of stock with considerable delay because the yearly harvest from the forest is only 1.8%. The reduction in social welfare for the downstream round wood market is estimated at €218 million in 2030, whereby consumers incur a welfare loss of €357 million, while producers experience a €139 million increase, due to higher wood prices. The societal impact is expected to extend to well beyond the time horizon of the analysis, and long after the invasion has stopped. Conclusions/Significance Pinewood nematode has large economic consequences for the conifer forestry industry in the EU. A change in spatial resolution affected the calculated directed losses by 24%, but did not critically affect conclusion