Treatment response and clinical event-free survival in autoimmune hepatitis:A Canadian multicentre cohort study

Background &amp; Aims: Treatment outcomes for people living with autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) are limited by a lack of specific therapies, as well as limited well-validated prognostic tools and clinical trial endpoints. We sought to identify predictors of outcome for people living with AIH. Methods: We evaluated the clinical course of people with AIH across 11 Canadian centres. Biochemical changes were analysed using linear mixed-effect and logistic regression. Clinical outcome was dynamically modelled using time-varying Cox proportional hazard modelling and landmark analysis. Results: In 691 patients (median age 49 years, 75.4% female), with a median follow-up of 6 years (25th-75th percentile, 2.5-11), 118 clinical events occurred. Alanine aminotransferase (ALT) normalisation occurred in 63.8% of the cohort by 12 months. Older age at diagnosis (odd ratio [OR] 1.19, 95% CI 1.06-1.35) and female sex (OR 1.94, 95% CI 1.18-3.19) were associated with ALT normalisation at 6 months, whilst baseline cirrhosis status was associated with reduced chance of normalisation at 12 months (OR 0.52, 95% CI 0.33-0.82). Baseline total bilirubin, aminotransferases, and IgG values, as well as initial prednisone dose, did not predict average ALT reduction. At baseline, older age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.25, 95% CI 1.12-1.40), cirrhosis at diagnosis (HR 3.67, 95% CI 2.48-5.43), and elevated baseline total bilirubin (HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.17-1.58) increased the risk of clinical events. Prolonged elevations in ALT (HR 1.07, 95% CI 1.00-1.13) and aspartate aminotransferase (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.06-1.21), but not IgG (HR 1.01, 95% CI 0.95-1.07), were associated with higher risk of clinical events. Higher ALT at 6 months was associated with worse clinical event-free survival. Conclusion: In people living with AIH, sustained elevated aminotransferase values, but not IgG, are associated with poorer long-term outcomes. Biochemical response and long-term survival are not associated with starting prednisone dose. Impact and implications: Using clinical data from multiple Canadian liver clinics treating autoimmune hepatitis (AIH), we evaluate treatment response and clinical outcomes. For the first time, we apply mixed-effect and time-varying survival statistical methods to rigorously examine treatment response and the impact of fluctuating liver biochemistry on clinical event-free survival. Key to the study impact, our data is 'real-world', represents a diverse population across Canada, and uses continuous measurements over follow-up. Our results challenge the role of IgG as a marker of treatment response and if normalisation of IgG should remain an important part of the definition of biochemical remission. Our analysis further highlights that baseline markers of disease severity may not prognosticate early treatment response. Additionally, the initial prednisone dose may be less relevant for achieving aminotransferase normalisation. This is important for patients and treating clinicians given the relevance and importance of side effects.</p

Loss of biochemical response at any time worsens outcomes in UDCA-treated patients with primary biliary cholangitis

Background &amp; Aims: Biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) therapy is associated with good prognosis in people living with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). Biochemical response is typically assessed early in disease and it is not known what proportion of patients lose previously attained biochemical response, nor whether this impacts long-term liver-transplant-free survival.Methods: We identified all UDCA-treated patients with PBC from the Canadian Network for Autoimmune Liver disease with biochemical measurements at one year, and evaluated their liver biochemistry over time. Inadequate biochemical response was defined as serum alkaline phosphatase ≥ 1.67xULN or abnormal serum total bilirubin at one year of UDCA therapy and all time points thereafter. Multistate Markov models were used to estimate transition rates between biochemical response states and from each state to liver transplantation (LT) or death. Results were validated in an external cohort (GLOBAL PBC registry).Results: A total of 823 patients from 8 centers were included. Mean age at diagnosis was 53 years, 91% were female, 33% had inadequate biochemical response to UDCA at one year (n = 269). Patients who retained initial adequate response had lower rates of LT or death compared to patients who subsequently lost response (relative rate 0.102, 95%CI 0.047-0.223). Patients who regained adequate response had lower rates than patients who did not (0.016, 0.001-0.568), and patients who lost response once more (0.010, 0.001-0.340). Patients who regained adequate response for a third time also had lower rates than patients who did not (0.151, 0.040-0.566). Analyses in the GLOBAL PBC registry (n=2237) validated these results.Conclusion: Loss of biochemical response at any time is associated with heightened risks of liver transplantation or death in people living with PBC. Achievement of biochemical response is an important goal throughout follow-up, regardless of biochemical response profile early in therapy.</div

Paediatric COVID-19 mortality: a database analysis of the impact of health resource disparity

Background The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on paediatric populations varied between high-income countries (HICs) versus low-income to middle-income countries (LMICs). We sought to investigate differences in paediatric clinical outcomes and identify factors contributing to disparity between countries.Methods The International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) COVID-19 database was queried to include children under 19 years of age admitted to hospital from January 2020 to April 2021 with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis. Univariate and multivariable analysis of contributing factors for mortality were assessed by country group (HICs vs LMICs) as defined by the World Bank criteria.Results A total of 12 860 children (3819 from 21 HICs and 9041 from 15 LMICs) participated in this study. Of these, 8961 were laboratory-confirmed and 3899 suspected COVID-19 cases. About 52% of LMICs children were black, and more than 40% were infants and adolescent. Overall in-hospital mortality rate (95% CI) was 3.3% [=(3.0% to 3.6%), higher in LMICs than HICs (4.0% (3.6% to 4.4%) and 1.7% (1.3% to 2.1%), respectively). There were significant differences between country income groups in intervention profile, with higher use of antibiotics, antivirals, corticosteroids, prone positioning, high flow nasal cannula, non-invasive and invasive mechanical ventilation in HICs. Out of the 439 mechanically ventilated children, mortality occurred in 106 (24.1%) subjects, which was higher in LMICs than HICs (89 (43.6%) vs 17 (7.2%) respectively). Pre-existing infectious comorbidities (tuberculosis and HIV) and some complications (bacterial pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome and myocarditis) were significantly higher in LMICs compared with HICs. On multivariable analysis, LMIC as country income group was associated with increased risk of mortality (adjusted HR 4.73 (3.16 to 7.10)).Conclusion Mortality and morbidities were higher in LMICs than HICs, and it may be attributable to differences in patient demographics, complications and access to supportive and treatment modalities

The value of open-source clinical science in pandemic response: lessons from ISARIC

International audienc

Characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 patients admitted to hospital with and without respiratory symptoms

Background: COVID-19 is primarily known as a respiratory illness; however, many patients present to hospital without respiratory symptoms. The association between non-respiratory presentations of COVID-19 and outcomes remains unclear. We investigated risk factors and clinical outcomes in patients with no respiratory symptoms (NRS) and respiratory symptoms (RS) at hospital admission. Methods: This study describes clinical features, physiological parameters, and outcomes of hospitalised COVID-19 patients, stratified by the presence or absence of respiratory symptoms at hospital admission. RS patients had one or more of: cough, shortness of breath, sore throat, runny nose or wheezing; while NRS patients did not. Results: Of 178,640 patients in the study, 86.4&nbsp;% presented with RS, while 13.6&nbsp;% had NRS. NRS patients were older (median age: NRS: 74 vs RS: 65) and less likely to be admitted to the ICU (NRS: 36.7&nbsp;% vs RS: 37.5&nbsp;%). NRS patients had a higher crude in-hospital case-fatality ratio (NRS 41.1&nbsp;% vs. RS 32.0&nbsp;%), but a lower risk of death after adjusting for confounders (HR 0.88 [0.83-0.93]). Conclusion: Approximately one in seven COVID-19 patients presented at hospital admission without respiratory symptoms. These patients were older, had lower ICU admission rates, and had a lower risk of in-hospital mortality after adjusting for confounders

Association of Country Income Level With the Characteristics and Outcomes of Critically Ill Patients Hospitalized With Acute Kidney Injury and COVID-19

Introduction: Acute kidney injury (AKI) has been identified as one of the most common and significant problems in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. However, studies examining the relationship between COVID-19 and AKI in low- and low-middle income countries (LLMIC) are lacking. Given that AKI is known to carry a higher mortality rate in these countries, it is important to understand differences in this population. Methods: This prospective, observational study examines the AKI incidence and characteristics of 32,210 patients with COVID-19 from 49 countries across all income levels who were admitted to an intensive care unit during their hospital stay. Results: Among patients with COVID-19 admitted to the intensive care unit, AKI incidence was highest in patients in LLMIC, followed by patients in upper-middle income countries (UMIC) and high-income countries (HIC) (53%, 38%, and 30%, respectively), whereas dialysis rates were lowest among patients with AKI from LLMIC and highest among those from HIC (27% vs. 45%). Patients with AKI in LLMIC had the largest proportion of community-acquired AKI (CA-AKI) and highest rate of in-hospital death (79% vs. 54% in HIC and 66% in UMIC). The association between AKI, being from LLMIC and in-hospital death persisted even after adjusting for disease severity. Conclusions: AKI is a particularly devastating complication of COVID-19 among patients from poorer nations where the gaps in accessibility and quality of healthcare delivery have a major impact on patient outcomes

Characteristics and outcomes of an international cohort of 600 000 hospitalized patients with COVID-19

Background: We describe demographic features, treatments and clinical outcomes in the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) COVID-19 cohort, one of the world's largest international, standardized data sets concerning hospitalized patients. Methods: The data set analysed includes COVID-19 patients hospitalized between January 2020 and January 2022 in 52 countries. We investigated how symptoms on admission, co-morbidities, risk factors and treatments varied by age, sex and other characteristics. We used Cox regression models to investigate associations between demographics, symptoms, co-morbidities and other factors with risk of death, admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) and invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). Results: Data were available for 689 572 patients with laboratory-confirmed (91.1%) or clinically diagnosed (8.9%) SARS-CoV-2 infection from 52 countries. Age [adjusted hazard ratio per 10 years 1.49 (95% CI 1.48, 1.49)] and male sex [1.23 (1.21, 1.24)] were associated with a higher risk of death. Rates of admission to an ICU and use of IMV increased with age up to age 60&nbsp;years then dropped. Symptoms, co-morbidities and treatments varied by age and had varied associations with clinical outcomes. The case-fatality ratio varied by country partly due to differences in the clinical characteristics of recruited patients and was on average 21.5%. Conclusions: Age was the strongest determinant of risk of death, with a ∼30-fold difference between the oldest and youngest groups; each of the co-morbidities included was associated with up to an almost 2-fold increase in risk. Smoking and obesity were also associated with a higher risk of death.&nbsp;The size of our international database and the standardized data collection method make this study a comprehensive international description of COVID-19 clinical features. Our findings may inform strategies that involve prioritization of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 who have a higher risk of death

Implementation of Recommendations on the Use of Corticosteroids in Severe COVID-19

Importance: Research diversity and representativeness are paramount in building trust, generating valid biomedical knowledge, and possibly in implementing clinical guidelines. Objectives: To compare variations over time and across World Health Organization (WHO) geographic regions of corticosteroid use for treatment of severe COVID-19; secondary objectives were to evaluate the association between the timing of publication of the RECOVERY (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy) trial (June 2020) and the WHO guidelines for corticosteroids (September 2020) and the temporal trends observed in corticosteroid use by region and to describe the geographic distribution of the recruitment in clinical trials that informed the WHO recommendation. Design, setting, and participants: This prospective cohort study of 434 851 patients was conducted between January 31, 2020, and September 2, 2022, in 63 countries worldwide. The data were collected under the auspices of the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC)-WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol for Severe Emerging Infections. Analyses were restricted to patients hospitalized for severe COVID-19 (a subset of the ISARIC data set). Exposure: Corticosteroid use as reported to the ISARIC-WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol for Severe Emerging Infections. Main outcomes and measures: Number and percentage of patients hospitalized with severe COVID-19 who received corticosteroids by time period and by WHO geographic region. Results: Among 434 851 patients with confirmed severe or critical COVID-19 for whom receipt of corticosteroids could be ascertained (median [IQR] age, 61.0 [48.0-74.0] years; 53.0% male), 174 307 (40.1%) received corticosteroids during the study period. Of the participants in clinical trials that informed the guideline, 91.6% were recruited from the United Kingdom. In all regions, corticosteroid use for severe COVID-19 increased, but this increase corresponded to the timing of the RECOVERY trial (time-interruption coefficient 1.0 [95% CI, 0.9-1.2]) and WHO guideline (time-interruption coefficient 1.9 [95% CI, 1.7-2.0]) publications only in Europe. At the end of the study period, corticosteroid use for treatment of severe COVID-19 was highest in the Americas (5421 of 6095 [88.9%]; 95% CI, 87.7-90.2) and lowest in Africa (31 588 of 185 191 [17.1%]; 95% CI, 16.8-17.3). Conclusions and relevance: The results of this cohort study showed that implementation of the guidelines for use of corticosteroids in the treatment of severe COVID-19 varied geographically. Uptake of corticosteroid treatment was lower in regions with limited clinical trial involvement. Improving research diversity and representativeness may facilitate timely knowledge uptake and guideline implementation