Futures of the climate action movement: Insights from an integral futures approach

In this paper, I use a Wilberian integral futures approach to examine visions of the future within the climate action movement and identify sources of agreement and contention. I argue that the Wilberian approach is particularly valuable in drawing out diverse futures associated with differing levels of consciousness. Applying this approach to the climate action movement, I identify a likely future in which the continued promotion of a particular set of ecological values limits the appeal of the movement and reduces its effectiveness. An alternative future sees movement leaders working from or adopting more diverse value positions to develop movement visions that have broader appeal and support more effective results

An Integral extension of causal layered analysis

Causal layered analysis (CLA) is a futures method developed by Sohail Inayatullah and since applied by numerous futurists across multiple content areas. The central assumption of CLA is that there are different levels of reality and ways of knowing; beneath the popular conceptions of an issue (the litany) and more academic analysis of systemic causes are deep worldview commitments, discourses, myths and metaphors. This layered understanding of reality initially seems to resonate with ideas from Ken Wilber's Integral Theory, which identifies developmental levels across behavioural, social, psychological and cultural quadrants. On closer inspection, there are some important theoretical and conceptual differences between CLA and Integral Theory; from an Integral perspective, the layers in CLA confuse quadrants, developmental levels and developmental lines. In this paper, I explore these differences in search of a resolution that will allow the fruitful application of CLA within an Integral Futures framework. I find that CLA, as currently conceived, is not an Integral method in its own right. However, CLA has great value for Integral Futures work as a way of drawing attention to the neglected cultural dimension of futures. Further, with some modifications and extensions, a more Integral application of CLA seems possible. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

A framework for economic analysis of greenhouse abatement options

Economic analysis has been central to the development of greenhouse abatement policy in Australia. Current Australian policy is to remain outside the Kyoto Protocol, while still attempting to meet the emission targets established under the Protocol. Australia’s failure to ratify the Protocol has incurred international criticism; it is therefore appropriate to examine the validity of the economic analysis used to support this policy position. This paper reviews approaches to economic analysis that have been prominent in the greenhouse policy debate in Australia, including computable general equilibrium modelling, bottom-up energy sector modelling and policy specific cost benefit analysis. Alternative approaches that have received less attention in Australia are also reviewed. Flaws in existing economic analyses include a failure to consider the net cost to society of greenhouse abatement measures, a tendency to exclude abatement benefits, inadequate consideration of ethical and moral issues, a lack of accessibility and the assumption that economic systems are in an optimal equilibrium state. In response to these flaws, an alternative approach to economic analysis termed ‘integrated abatement planning’ is developed. Integrated abatement planning draws on the principles of least cost planning and integrated resource planning to identify least cost greenhouse abatement measures. A primary tool is the marginal abatement cost curve, which plots abatement measures according to their total abatement over a specified time period and the marginal cost of abatement. The approach is based on an explicit ethical position that values inter-generational and intra-generational equity. Integrated abatement planning is intended as a simple, practical approach that can be used by policy makers to explore the balance between long- and short-term objectives, to test the impact of varying assumptions, and to identify a robust set of measures for meeting politically determined greenhouse reduction targets. It draws on evolutionary economic theory, notably the insight that selected policies will always be sub-optimal but will provide opportunities for learning and continual improvement of policy. Integrated abatement planning offers a way to move beyond arguments about whether greenhouse abatement is required and to focus, more productively, on the best ways to achieve abatement

Urban infrastructure for long-term climate change response

In the context of climate change response, sustainable urban infrastructure needs to deliver deep cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, of the order of 80-90% by 2050. This paper examines how various GHG reduction strategies applied to urban infrastructure open up or foreclose the potential for deeper cuts in the long-term. It uses case studies of a major precinct-scale urban redevelopment site and a city-wide planning process in Sydney to illustrate how developers and planners are balancing short to medium-term GHG reduction actions with the need to achieve much deeper cuts in the long-term. There is a particular focus on the implications of strategies that prioritise gas-fired cogeneration. The paper argues that too little attention is being given to the long-term implications of short-term GHG reduction strategies and proposes infrastructure design principles for long-term GHG reduction

The influence of futures work on public policy and sustainability

Purpose - This paper aims to draw on a global scan of futures literature undertaken for the State of Play in the Futures Field (SOPIFF) project to investigate the contribution of futures work to averting looming sustainability challenges and suggest new strategies for influencing policy and practice. Design/methodology/approach - The SOPIFF project used an integral meta-scanning framework to review publicly available futures material, providing a rich source of material to use in assessing the influence achieved by futures work. The framework categorizes futures work according to organizational type, social interests, methods, domains and geographic location. Findings - On the whole, the influence achieved by futures work is disappointing given that many futurists are strongly committed to bringing about more desirable futures. Some qualified success stories include science and technology foresight, getting sustainability challenges onto the social agenda and small-scale, distributed initiatives. Research limitations/implications - Limitations of the scanning process include heavy reliance on publicly available material, prioritization of breadth over depth of analysis and the physical and cultural location of the researchers. Future iterations of the research should go beyond public material, undertake deeper analysis of scanning hits and draw in more non-western and non-English work. Practical implications - The paper proposes four strategies for increasing the influence of futures work: methodological renewal, political engagement, individual capacity building and participatory approaches. Originality/value - The paper uses the recently developed integral meta-scanning framework to provide a novel view of the futures field. The findings will be of value to foresight practitioners that are seeking to influence public policy and sustainability. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Electricity supply in NSW: Alternatives to privatisation

The Public Interest Advocacy Centre (PIAC) commissioned the Institute for Sustainable Futures (ISF) at the University of Technology, Sydney (UTS) to consider the economic case for and against privatisation of electricity assets in NSW. The report, Electricity supply in NSW: alternatives to privatisation, reviews Australian and international experiences with electricity privatisation, critically examines the case for privatisation made by the Owen Report and proposes alternatives that have the potential to deliver a more sustainable future for the NSW electricity industry