Assessing the future threat from vivax malaria in the United Kingdom using two markedly different modelling approaches

Background: The world is facing an increased threat from new and emerging diseases, and there is concern that climate change will expand areas suitable for transmission of vector borne diseases. The likelihood of vivax malaria returning to the UK was explored using two markedly different modelling approaches. First, a simple temperature-dependent, process-based model of malaria growth transmitted by Anopheles atroparvus, the historical vector of malaria in the UK. Second, a statistical model using logistic-regression was used to predict historical malaria incidence between 1917 and 1918 in the UK, based on environmental and demographic data. Using findings from these models and saltmarsh distributions, future risk maps for malaria in the UK were produced based on UKCIP02 climate change scenarios. Results: The process-based model of climate suitability showed good correspondence with historical records of malaria cases. An analysis of the statistical models showed that mean temperature of the warmest month of the year was the major factor explaining the distribution of malaria, further supporting the use of the temperature-driven processed-based model. The risk maps indicate that large areas of central and southern England could support malaria transmission today and could increase in extent in the future. Confidence in these predictions is increased by the concordance between the processed-based and statistical models. Conclusion: Although the future climate in the UK is favourable for the transmission of vivax malaria, the future risk of locally transmitted malaria is considered low because of low vector biting rates and the low probability of vectors feeding on a malaria-infected person

Genetic Assimilation and Canalisation in the Baldwin Effect

The Baldwin Effect indicates that individually learned behaviours acquired during an organism’s lifetime can influence the evolutionary path taken by a population, without any direct Lamarckian transfer of traits from phenotype to genotype. Several computational studies modelling this effect have included complications that restrict its applicability. Here we present a simplified model that is used to reveal the essential mechanisms and highlight several conceptual issues that have not been clearly defined in prior literature. In particular, we suggest that canalisation and genetic assimilation, often conflated in previous studies, are separate concepts and the former is actually not required for non-heritable phenotypic variation to guide genetic variation. Additionally, learning, often considered to be essential for the Baldwin Effect, can be replaced with a more general phenotypic plasticity model. These simplifications potentially permit the Baldwin Effect to operate in much more general circumstances

Invasive Allele Spread under Preemptive Competition

We study a discrete spatial model for invasive allele spread in which two alleles compete preemptively, initially only the "residents" (weaker competitors) being present. We find that the spread of the advantageous mutation is well described by homogeneous nucleation; in particular, in large systems the time-dependent global density of the resident allele is well approximated by Avrami's law.Comment: Computer Simulation Studies in Condensed Matter Physics XVIII, edited by D.P. Landau, S.P. Lewis, and H.-B. Schuttler, (Springer, Heidelberg, Berlin, in press

The LBDS Hercules sample of mJy radio sources at 1.4 GHz - II. Redshift distribution, radio luminosity function, and the high-redshift cut-off

{Abridged} A combination of spectroscopy and broadband photometric redshifts has been used to find the complete redshift distribution of the Hercules sample of millijansky radio sources. These data have been used to examine the evolution of the radio luminosity function (RLF) and its high-redshift cut-off. New redshifts have been measured for eleven sources, and a further ten upper limits are given. The total number of sources with known redshifts in the sample is now 47 (65%). We calculated broadband photometric redshifts for the remaining one-third of the sample. For the luminosity range probed by the present study (P_1.4 > 10^24.5 W/Hz/sr), we use the V/V_max test to show conclusively that there is a deficit of high-redshift (z > 2-2.5) objects. Comparison with the model RLFs of Dunlop & Peacock (1990) shows that our data can now exclude pure luminosity evolution. Two of the models of DP90, and the RLF deduced by direct binning of the data, both favour a luminosity dependence for the high-redshift cut-off, with lower-luminosity sources (P_1.4 \simeq 10^24 W/Hz/sr) in decline by z \simeq 1-1.5 while higher-luminosity sources (P_1.4 \simeq 10^{25-26} W/Hz/sr) decline in comoving number density beyond z \simeq 2-2.5.Comment: Revised version submitted to MNRAS. 16 pages, 12 figure

Simulations of metastable decay in two- and three-dimensional models with microscopic dynamics

We present a brief analysis of the crossover phase diagram for the decay of a metastable phase in a simple dynamic lattice-gas model of a two-phase system. We illustrate the nucleation-theoretical analysis with dynamic Monte Carlo simulations of a kinetic Ising lattice gas on square and cubic lattices. We predict several regimes in which the metastable lifetime has different functional forms, and provide estimates for the crossovers between the different regimes. In the multidroplet regime, the Kolmogorov-Johnson-Mehl-Avrami theory for the time dependence of the order-parameter decay and the two-point density correlation function allows extraction of both the order parameter in the metastable phase and the interfacial velocity from the simulation data.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figures, submitted to J. Non-Crystalline Solids, conference proceeding for IXth International Conference on the Physics of Non-Crystalline Solids, October, 199

New laser technology to determine present weather parameters

Present weather sensors are becoming increasingly important as a means to augment networks of automated weather stations and extend the capability of manned observations. The classification of hydrometeors is one of the principal tasks that is addressed by present weather sensors. In this paper, we discuss a new laser-based technology for this purpose. The system improves upon current precipitation monitors by using a derivative of phase Doppler anemometry techniques to accurately determine particle speed and size. The instrument is also capable of distinguishing between liquid droplets and solid polycrystalline hydrometeors and can be used to estimate visibility. The incorporation of this technology into a meteorological station with other sensors, such as temperature and relative humidity probes, leads to the accurate classification of particle type. The example data shown are taken from tests in Leicestershire, England and Utah, USA and show the differences between solid and liquid precipitation events

Computation of protein geometry and its applications: Packing and function prediction

This chapter discusses geometric models of biomolecules and geometric constructs, including the union of ball model, the weigthed Voronoi diagram, the weighted Delaunay triangulation, and the alpha shapes. These geometric constructs enable fast and analytical computaton of shapes of biomoleculres (including features such as voids and pockets) and metric properties (such as area and volume). The algorithms of Delaunay triangulation, computation of voids and pockets, as well volume/area computation are also described. In addition, applications in packing analysis of protein structures and protein function prediction are also discussed.Comment: 32 pages, 9 figure

Isotopic analysis of faunal material from South Uist, Western Isles, Scotland

This paper reports on the results from stable isotope analysis of faunal bone collagen from a number of Iron Age and later sites on the island of South Uist, in the Western Isles, Scotland. This preliminary investigation into the isotopic signatures of the fauna is part of a larger project to model the interaction between humans, animals, and the broader environment in the Western Isles. The results demonstrate that the island fauna data fall within the range of expected results for the UK, with the terrestrial herbivorous diets of cattle and sheep confi rmed. The isotopic composition for pigs suggests that some of these animals had an omnivorous diet, whilst a single red deer value might be suggestive of the consumption of marine foods, such as by grazing on seaweed. However, further analysis is needed in order to verify this anomalous isotopic ratio