The Impact of Cell Phones and BAC Laws on Motor Vehicle Fatality Rates

This paper develops a set of models for the determinants of automobile fatalities with particular attention devoted to the effects of increased cell phone usage. Cell phones have been associated with both life-taking and life-saving properties. However, prior statistical evaluations of the effects of cell phones have led to fragile results. We develop in this paper econometric models using time series data, allowing for polynomial structures of the regressors. The models are evaluated with a set of specification error tests providing reliable estimates of the effects of the various policy and driving related variables evaluated. The statistical results indicate the effect of cell phones is non-monotonic depending on the volume of phones in use, first having a net life-taking effect, then a net life-saving effect, followed finally with a net life-taking effect as the volume of phone use increases.Motor Vehicle Fatalities, Cell Phones, BAC Laws

Solent Disturbance and Mitigation Project Phase II: Predicting the impact of human disturbance on overwintering birds in the Solent.

The Solent coastline provides feeding grounds for internationally protected populations of overwintering waders and wildfowl, and is also extensively used for recreation. In response to concerns over the impact of recreational pressure on birds within protected areas in the Solent, the Solent Forum initiated the Solent Disturbance and Mitigation Project to determine visitor access patterns around the coast and how their activities may influence the birds. The project has been divided into two phases. Phase I collated and reviewed information on housing, human activities and birds around the Solent, and reviewed the potential impact of disturbance on birds. Phase II has involved a programme of major new data collection to (i) estimate visitor rates to the coast from current and future housing, (ii) measure the activities and distances moved by people on the shore and intertidal habitats, and (iii) measure the distances and time for which different bird species respond to different activities. The current report represents the culmination of Phase II, in which the primary data are used to predict whether disturbance may be reducing the survival of birds. Predictions are derived for wader species by developing detailed computer models of birds and disturbance within Southampton Water and Chichester Harbour. These models create a virtual environment within the computer incorporating the intertidal invertebrate food supply of the birds, the exposure and covering of this food through the tidal cycle, disturbance from human activities, and the energy requirements and behaviour of the birds as they avoid humans and search for food. The invertebrate food supply of birds in the models was derived from previous intertidal surveys, and the exposure of intertidal habitat predicted from a tidal model of the Solent. The models incorporate the costs that birds incur when avoiding human activities (e.g. increased density in non-disturbed areas, reduced time for feeding and increased energy demands when flying away), but also their abilities to compensate for these costs (e.g. by feeding for longer or avoiding more disturbed areas). The predictions indicate how disturbance may be effecting the survival of waders throughout the Solent. The following waders were included in the models: Dunlin Calidris alpina, Ringed Plover Charadrius hiaticula, Redshank Tringa totanus, Grey Plover Pluvialis squatarola, Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa, Bar-tailed Godwit Limosa lapponica (Chichester Harbour model only), Oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus and Curlew Numenius arquata. A simpler approach was used to assess how disturbance may be effecting Brent Geese in the Solent. As with any models, the predictions of the models used in this project depend on the data with which they are parameterised and the assumptions they make about the real system. The current and future visitor rates used in the models were themselves predicted using statistical analyses of household survey and on-site visitor data. The responses of birds to disturbance were parameterised using on-site observations of the responses of birds to disturbance. Furthermore, models are a simplification of real systems, and it is important to recognise this when interpreting their predictions. The report considers how the model parameters and assumptions may influence predictions. These include: (i) the way in which the disturbance data were measured and assumptions made about how birds and people are distributed in space and time; (ii) the way in which the behaviour of birds to disturbance differs between sites; (iii) the effect of extreme weather on the birds; (iv) how rare or localised activities are incorporated into the models; and (v) how consumption of food by species other than waders is included. The project predicted changes in visitor numbers to the Solent coast. Local authorities in the Solent region provided projections of future housing developments in the region. These were combined with data on visitor rates to different parts of the coast and the distance travelled to visit the coast, to predict coastal visitor rates with current and future housing. Using current housing levels, 52 million household visits per year to the Solent coast were predicted (i.e. the shore from Hurst Castle to Chichester Harbour, including the north shore of the Isle of Wight). Using the housing data provided by local authorities, visitor numbers were predicted to rise by around 8 million household visits, to a total of 60 million, an overall increase of 15%. Within Chichester Harbour, the food supply surveyed was not predicted to be able to support the majority of wading birds modelled. This implied that either the invertebrate survey underestimated the intertidal food supply, or that other food was available either terrestrially, or from neighbouring intertidal sites such as Langstone Harbour. Similar invertebrate surveys have been used to parameterise 17 other similar models, and in all cases birds were predicted to have survival rates close to, or higher than those expected. Due to uncertainties with the Chichester Harbour invertebrate data, it was decided not to use the Chichester Harbour model to predict the effect of disturbance on the birds. However, it is important to note what the effect of low food abundance would be on the effect of disturbance on the birds. The impact of disturbance on survival and body condition will depend on the birds’ ability to compensate for lost feeding time and extra energy expenditure. Birds will be better able to compensate when more food is available, and so lower food abundance in a site will make it more likely that disturbance decreases survival and body condition. Within Southampton Water, in the absence of disturbance, all wader species modelled were predicted to have 100% survival and maintain their body masses at the target value throughout the course of winter. Disturbance from current housing was predicted to reduce the survival of Dunlin, Ringed Plover, Oystercatcher and Curlew. Increased visitor numbers as a result of future housing was predicted to further reduce the survival of Dunlin and Ringed Plover. Disturbance was predicted to have a relatively minor effect on the mean body mass of waders surviving to the end of winter, largely because the individuals with very low mass starved before the end of winter. The Southampton Water model provided evidence that current and future disturbance rates may reduce wader survival in this site. Hypothetical simulations were run to explore how intertidal habitat area, energy demands of the birds and the frequency of different activities may influence the survival of waders within Southampton Water. The survival rates of Dunlin, Ringed Plover, Oystercatcher and Curlew were predicted to be decreased by any reduction in intertidal habitat area (e.g. due to sea level rise) or increases in energy demands (e.g. due to disturbance at roosts or cold weather). Wader survival was predicted to increase if intertidal activities were moved to the shore. This meant that the disturbance from these activities was restricted to the top of the shore rather than the whole intertidal area, and so the proportion of intertidal habitat disturbed was reduced. Reductions in the number of dogs that were off leads were also predicted to increase the survival of some wader species. Removing bait digging from simulations did not increase wader survival. However, this happened because bait-digging was assumed to be a relatively infrequent activity. This does not mean that bait-digging could not adversely affect the birds if it occurs at a higher frequency, and the simulations did not incorporate the depletion of the invertebrate prey of the birds caused by bait digging, which would be an additional effect on the birds in addition to disturbance. Brent Geese were considered in the light of the Solent Waders and Brent Goose Strategy. Important issues are the size of individual sites, their spacing and the ease with which birds can move between the sites. A high proportion of each site needs to be further away from visitor access routes than the distances over which birds are disturbed to ensure that disturbance to the birds is minimised. This could be achieved through a network of larger sites or by preventing visitor access through, or close to, smaller sites. Both intertidal and terrestrial food resources are important to the birds, intertidal food typically being of higher food value but dying back and / or becoming depleted during the autumn / early winter. Previous models of Brent Geese have predicted that the loss of terrestrial habitat typically has the highest effect on survival, and so such habitat is predicted to be particularly important for the birds. Maintaining a suitable network of saltmarsh sites will be increasingly important as the total area of saltmarsh declines with sea level rise. The findings of the present project are in general support with the recommendations of the Solent Waders and Brent Goose Strategy. Predicted current visitor rates varied widely throughout the Solent, but were relatively high within Southampton Water. The highest percentage increases in visitor rates were on the Isle of Wight (50-75%). Wader survival was predicted to be decreased in Southampton Water when daily visitor rates to coastal sections were greater than 30 per ha of intertidal habitat. The potential impact of visitors on wader survival throughout the Solent was calculated by comparing visitor densities throughout the Solent (expressed relative to maximum intertidal habitat area) to the visitor densities predicted to decrease bird survival within Southampton Water. The intertidal food supply within Chichester Harbour was insufficient to support the model birds and so any disturbance (by reducing feeding area or time, or increasing energy demands) would have decreased predicted survival in this site. There is also doubt as to the food supply within the other harbours and so some caution is appropriate when applying the results from Southampton Water to these sites. Coastal sections with daily visitor rates over 30 per ha are identified. The predictions of the Southampton Water model suggest that birds within these sections may have reduced survival due to disturbance from visitors. Whether or not such visitor rates will reduce survival will depend on the food abundance in the coastal sections themselves as well as that in neighbouring sections. The area of overlap between an activity / development and the distribution of birds is often used as a measure of the impact of the activity on the birds, with 1% overlap often taken as the threshold for impact (note however that this 1% overlap does not necessarily mean that an activity will have an adverse effect on the survival or body condition of birds). Therefore, the percentage of intertidal habitat disturbed within each coastal section was calculated as an index of the potential impact of disturbance on the birds. Assuming the maximum intertidal area and only including intertidal visitors, over 50% of the area of many coastal sections was predicted to be disturbed, with an average of 42%

Collision velocity of dust grains in self-gravitating protoplanetary discs.

We have conducted the first comprehensive numerical investigation of the relative velocity distribution of dust particles in self-gravitating protoplanetary discs with a view to assessing the viability of planetesimal formation via direct collapse in such environments. The viability depends crucially on the large sizes that are preferentially collected in pressure maxima produced by transient spiral features (Stokes numbers, St ∼ 1); growth to these size scales requires that collision velocities remain low enough that grain growth is not reversed by fragmentation. We show that, for a single-sized dust population, velocity driving by the disc's gravitational perturbations is only effective for St > 3, while coupling to the gas velocity dominates otherwise. We develop a criterion for understanding this result in terms of the stopping distance being of the order of the disc scaleheight. Nevertheless, the relative velocities induced by differential radial drift in multi-sized dust populations are too high to allow the growth of silicate dust particles beyond St ∼ 10- 2 or 10-1 (10 cm to m sizes at 30 au), such Stokes numbers being insufficient to allow concentration of solids in spiral features. However, for icy solids (which may survive collisions up to several 10 m s-1), growth to St ∼ 1 (10 m size) may be possible beyond 30 au from the star. Such objects would be concentrated in spiral features and could potentially produce larger icy planetesimals/comets by gravitational collapse. These planetesimals would acquire moderate eccentricities and remain unmodified over the remaining lifetime of the disc.This work has been supported by the DISCSIM project, grant agreement 341137 funded by the European Research Council under ERC-2013-ADG and has used the DIRAC Shared Memory Processing and DiRAC Data Analytic systems at the University of Cambridge. The DIRAC Shared Memory Processing system is operated by the COSMOS Project at the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics and was funded by BIS National E-infrastructure capital grant ST/J005673/1, STFC capital grant ST/H008586/1. The DiRAC Data Analytic system was funded by BIS National E-infrastructure capital grant ST/J005673/1 and STFC capital grant ST/H008586/1. Both systems are on behalf of the STFC DiRAC HPC Facility (www.dirac.ac.uk), funded by the STFC DiRAC Operations grant ST/K00333X/1.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Oxford University Press via http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stw48

Assessing the Economic Gains from Telecom Competition

This paper develops and simulates a dynamic model of strategic telecom competition. The goal is to understand how regulatory policy, particularly relative to lease charges for local network elements, affects telecom competition, investment, retail prices, and consumer welfare. The model assumes two products, local voice service and data (broadband), and three types of players the regional Bell operating companies, referred to as incumbent local exchange carriers (ILECs), cable companies (Cables), and competitive local exchange carriers (CLECs). The game begins with a) ILECs established in each county with respect to the provision of local voice and data services and b) Cables established in roughly half of the counties with respect to the provision of data.There are one-time fixed costs of entering a county, product- and period-specific costs of operating in a county, and marginal costs of supplying each product. Economies of scope reduce the fixed entry and operating costs of supplying both products in a given county at a given point in time. Finally, in supplying telecom services in a given county, CLECs may enter by leasing ILEC infrastructure at specified access rates. The requirement that ILECs allow CLECs to lease their local network facilities was established in the Telecommunications Act of 1996 as part of a quid pro quo that promised ILECs entry into the long distance market. But the ILECs continue to contest the quid. The ILECs support their position by suggesting that leased access reduces telecom investment and output and raises telecom prices. Our model considers the entire range of options available to each of the players, but it reaches the opposite conclusion. Indeed, we find thatif UNE-P rates were set at the Supreme Court-approved total element long-run incremental cost (TELRIC) levels, telecom investment and employment outlays would increase by over one fifth in counties containing the majority of the U.S. population and by over 30 percent in counties containing almost a third of the population. The present value of telecom outlays over the next 5 and 20 years would rise by $71 billion and$155 billion, respectively. On average, the switch from actual to TELRIC UNE rates would lower local phone rates across the country's 3108 counties by $57 per year, generating annual total savings to consumers of$15 billion. Almost two fifths of the population would experience reductions in local phone rates of 20 percent or more. Over one fifth would experience rate reductions of 30 percent or more. These findings of price reductions are based on a fairly conservative parameterization of our model with respect to the specification of true ILEC and CLEC incremental long-run production costs.

Life long learning in rural areas: a report to the Countryside Agency

Lifelong Learning is a broad umbrella term which includes many different kinds of provision and different forms of learning. At its heart is formal learning, often classroom based, or involving paper and electronic media, undertaken within educational institutions such as colleges and universities. It may or may not lead to an award and it includes learning undertaken for vocational reasons as well as for general interest. It encompasses what are sometimes also known as adult education, continuing education, continuing professional development (cpd), vocational training and the acquisition of basic skills. It may also include work-based learning, and may overlap with post compulsory (post 16) education, i.e. with further education and higher education, but normally applies to all ‘adult learning’ i.e. by people over the age of 19, in particular those who are returning to study after completing their initial education. From the perspective of the individual learner, however, non-formal learning (organised, systematic study carried on outside the framework of the formal system) is also important. This forms a continuum with informal learning that occurs frequently in the process of daily living, sometimes coincidentally for example through information media or through interpretive provision (such as at museums or heritage sites ). This report focuses on those aspects of adult learning which are directly affected by government policies, and thus of prime concern for rural proofing

Revealing signatures of planets migrating in protoplanetary discs with ALMA multi-wavelength observations

Recent observations show that rings and gaps are ubiquitous in protoplanetary discs. These features are often interpreted as being due to the presence of planets; however, the effect of planetary migration on the observed morphology has not been investigated hitherto. In this work we investigate whether multiwavelength mm/submm observations can detect signatures of planet migration, using 2D dusty hydrodynamic simulations to model the structures generated by migrating planets and synthesising ALMA continuum observations at 0.85 and 3 mm. We identify three possible morphologies for a migrating planet: a slowly migrating planet is associated with a single ring outside the planet's orbit, a rapidly migrating planet is associated with a single ring inside the planet's orbit while a planet migrating at intermediate speed generates one ring on each side of the planet's orbit. We argue that multiwavelength data can distinguish multiple rings produced by a migrating planet from other scenarios for creating multiple rings, such as multiple planets or discs with low viscosity. The signature of migration is that the outer ring has a lower spectral index, due to larger dust grains being trapped there. Of the recent ALMA observations revealing protoplanetary discs with multiple rings and gaps, we suggest that Elias 24 is the best candidate for a planet migrating in the intermediate speed regime.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRA

Next generation software environments : principles, problems, and research directions

The past decade has seen a burgeoning of research and development in software environments. Conferences have been devoted to the topic of practical environments, journal papers produced, and commercial systems sold. Given all the activity, one might expect a great deal of consensus on issues, approaches, and techniques. This is not the case, however. Indeed, the term "environment" is still used in a variety of conflicting ways. Nevertheless substantial progress has been made and we are at least nearing consensus on many critical issues.The purpose of this paper is to characterize environments, describe several important principles that have emerged in the last decade or so, note current open problems, and describe some approaches to these problems, with particular emphasis on the activities of one large-scale research program, the Arcadia project. Consideration is also given to two related topics: empirical evaluation and technology transition. That is, how can environments and their constituents be evaluated, and how can new developments be moved effectively into the production sector