Identifying airborne transmission as the dominant route for the spread of COVID-19

Various mitigation measures have been implemented to fight the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, including widely adopted social distancing and mandated face covering. However, assessing the effectiveness of those intervention practices hinges on the understanding of virus transmission, which remains uncertain. Here we show that airborne transmission is highly virulent and represents the dominant route to spread the disease. By analyzing the trend and mitigation measures in Wuhan, China, Italy, and New York City, from January 23 to May 9, 2020, we illustrate that the impacts of mitigation measures are discernable from the trends of the pandemic. Our analysis reveals that the difference with and without mandated face covering represents the determinant in shaping the pandemic trends in the three epicenters. This protective measure alone significantly reduced the number of infections, that is, by over 78,000 in Italy from April 6 to May 9 and over 66,000 in New York City from April 17 to May 9. Other mitigation measures, such as social distancing implemented in the United States, are insufficient by themselves in protecting the public. We conclude that wearing of face masks in public corresponds to the most effective means to prevent interhuman transmission, and this inexpensive practice, in conjunction with simultaneous social distancing, quarantine, and contact tracing, represents the most likely fighting opportunity to stop the COVID-19 pandemic. Our work also highlights the fact that sound science is essential in decision-making for the current and future public health pandemics

Identifying airborne transmission as the dominant route for the spread of COVID-19

Various mitigation measures have been implemented to fight the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, including widely adopted social distancing and mandated face covering. However, assessing the effectiveness of those intervention practices hinges on the understanding of virus transmission, which remains uncertain. Here we show that airborne transmission is highly virulent and represents the dominant route to spread the disease. By analyzing the trend and mitigation measures in Wuhan, China, Italy, and New York City, from January 23 to May 9, 2020, we illustrate that the impacts of mitigation measures are discernable from the trends of the pandemic. Our analysis reveals that the difference with and without mandated face covering represents the determinant in shaping the pandemic trends in the three epicenters. This protective measure alone significantly reduced the number of infections, that is, by over 78,000 in Italy from April 6 to May 9 and over 66,000 in New York City from April 17 to May 9. Other mitigation measures, such as social distancing implemented in the United States, are insufficient by themselves in protecting the public. We conclude that wearing of face masks in public corresponds to the most effective means to prevent interhuman transmission, and this inexpensive practice, in conjunction with simultaneous social distancing, quarantine, and contact tracing, represents the most likely fighting opportunity to stop the COVID-19 pandemic. Our work also highlights the fact that sound science is essential in decision-making for the current and future public health pandemics

Phase Equilibria of H2SO4, HNO3, and HCl Hydrates and the Composition of Polar Stratospheric Clouds

Thermodynamic properties and phase equilibria behavior for the hydrates and coexisting pairs of hydrates of common acids which exist in the stratosphere are assembled from new laboratory measurements and standard literature data. The analysis focuses upon solid-vapor and solid-solid-vapor equilibria at temperatures around 200 K and includes new calorimetric and vapor pressure data. Calculated partial pressures versus 1/T slopes for the hydrates and coexisting hydrates agree well with experimental data where available

Heterogeneous Interactions of ClONO2 and HCl with Sulfuric Acid Tetrahydrate: Implications for the Stratosphere

The reaction probabilities for ClONO2+H2O- HOCl + HNO3 and ClONO2+ HCl Cl2 +HNO3 have been investigated on sulfuric acid tetrahydrate (SAT, H2SO4-4H2O)surfaces at temperatures between 190 and 230 K and at reactant concentrations that are typical in the lower stratosphere, using a fast-flow reactor coupled to a quadrupole mass spectrometer. The results indicate that the reaction probabilities as well as HCl uptake depend strongly on the thermodynamic state of SAT surface: they decrease significantly with decreasing H2O partial pressure at a given temperature, and decrease with increasing temperature at a given H2O partial pressure, as the SAT changes from the H2O-rich form to the H2SO4-rich form. For H2O-rich SAT at 195 K gamma(sub 1) approx. = -0.01 and gamma(sub 2) greater or equal to 0.1, whereas the values for H2SO4-rich SAT decrease by more than 2 orders of magnitude. At low concentrations of HCl, close to those found in the stratosphere, the amount of HCl taken up by H2O-rich SAT films corresponds to a coverage of the order of a tenth of a monolayer (approx. = 10(exp 14) molecules/sq cm); H2SO4-rich SAT films take up 2 orders of magnitude less HCl (les than 10(exp 12) molecules/sq cm). Substantial HCl uptake at high HCl concentrations is also observed, as a result of surface melting. The data reveal that frozen stratospheric sulfate aerosols may play an important role in chlorine activation in the winter polar stratosphere via processes similar to those occurring on the surfaces of polar stratospheric cloud particles

Radiative absorption enhancement of dust mixed with anthropogenic pollution over East Asia

The particle mixing state plays a significant yet poorly quantified role in aerosol radiative forcing, especially for the mixing of dust (mineral absorbing) and anthropogenic pollution (black carbon absorbing) over East Asia. We have investigated the absorption enhancement of mixed-type aerosols over East Asia by using the Aerosol Robotic Network observations and radiative transfer model calculations. The mixed-type aerosols exhibit significantly enhanced absorbing ability than the corresponding unmixed dust and anthropogenic aerosols, as revealed in the spectral behavior of absorbing aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo, and imaginary refractive index. The aerosol radiative efficiencies for the dust, mixed-type, and anthropogenic aerosols are −101.0, −112.9, and −98.3 Wm⁻²τ⁻¹ at the bottom of the atmosphere (BOA); −42.3, −22.5, and −39.8 Wm⁻²τ⁻¹ at the top of the atmosphere (TOA); and 58.7, 90.3, and 58.5 Wm⁻²τ⁻¹ in the atmosphere (ATM), respectively. The BOA cooling and ATM heating efficiencies of the mixed-type aerosols are significantly higher than those of the unmixed aerosol types over the East Asia region, resulting in atmospheric stabilization. In addition, the mixed-type aerosols correspond to a lower TOA cooling efficiency, indicating that the cooling effect by the corresponding individual aerosol components is partially counteracted. We conclude that the interaction between dust and anthropogenic pollution not only represents a viable aerosol formation pathway but also results in unfavorable dispersion conditions, both exacerbating the regional air pollution in East Asia. Our results highlight the necessity to accurately account for the mixing state of aerosols in atmospheric models over East Asia in order to better understand the formation mechanism for regional air pollution and to assess its impacts on human health, weather, and climate

Asian pollution climatically modulates mid-latitude cyclones following hierarchical modelling and observational analysis

Increasing levels of anthropogenic aerosols in Asia have raised considerable concern regarding its potential impact on the global atmosphere, but the magnitude of the associated climate forcing remains to be quantified. Here, using a novel hierarchical modelling approach and observational analysis, we demonstrate modulated mid-latitude cyclones by Asian pollution over the past three decades. Regional and seasonal simulations using a cloud-resolving model show that Asian pollution invigorates winter cyclones over the northwest Pacific, increasing precipitation by 7% and net cloud radiative forcing by 1.0 W m(-2) at the top of the atmosphere and by 1.7 W m(-2) at the Earth's surface. A global climate model incorporating the diabatic heating anomalies from Asian pollution produces a 9% enhanced transient eddy meridional heat flux and reconciles a decadal variation of mid-latitude cyclones derived from the Reanalysis data. Our results unambiguously reveal a large impact of the Asian pollutant outflows on the global general circulation and climate.Multidisciplinary SciencesSCI(E)[email protected]; [email protected]

New Particle Formation in the Atmosphere : From Molecular Clusters to Global Climate

New particle formation (NPF) represents the first step in the complex processes leading to formation of cloud condensation nuclei. Newly formed nanoparticles affect human health, air quality, weather, and climate. This review provides a brief history, synthesizes recent significant progresses, and outlines the challenges and future directions for research relevant to NPF. New developments include the emergence of state-of-the-art instruments that measure prenucleation clusters and newly nucleated nanoparticles down to about 1 nm; systematic laboratory studies of multicomponent nucleation systems, including collaborative experiments conducted in the Cosmics Leaving Outdoor Droplets chamber at CERN; observations of NPF in different types of forests, extremely polluted urban locations, coastal sites, polar regions, and high-elevation sites; and improved nucleation theories and parameterizations to account for NPF in atmospheric models. The challenges include the lack of understanding of the fundamental chemical mechanisms responsible for aerosol nucleation and growth under diverse environments, the effects of SO2 and NOx on NPF, and the contribution of anthropogenic organic compounds to NPF. It is also critical to develop instruments that can detect chemical composition of particles from 3 to 20 nm and improve parameterizations to represent NPF over a wide range of atmospheric conditions of chemical precursor, temperature, and humidity. Plain Language Summary In the atmosphere, invisible to the human eye, there are many microscopic particles, or nanoparticles, that affect human health, air quality, and climate. We do not fully understand the chemical processes that allow these fine particles to form and be suspended in the air nor how they influence heat flow in Earth's atmosphere. Laboratory experiments, field observations, and modeling simulations have all shown different results for how these particles behave. These inconsistencies make it difficult to accurately represent the processes of new particle formation in regional and global atmospheric models. Scientists still need to develop instruments that can measure the smallest range of nanoparticles and to find ways to describe particle formation that allow for differences in temperature, humidity, and level of pollution.Peer reviewe

Laboratory Investigation of Organic Aerosol Formation from Aromatic Hydrocarbons

Our work for this DOE funded project includes: (1) measurements of the kinetics and mechanism of the gas-phase oxidation reactions of the aromatic hydrocarbons initiated by OH; (2) measurements of aerosol formation from the aromatic hydrocarbons; and (3) theoretical studies to elucidate the OH-toluene reaction mechanism using quantum-chemical and rate theories

Determinant Role of Aerosols From Industrial Sources in Hurricane Harvey's Catastrophe

The destructive power of tropical cyclones is driven by latent heat released from water condensation and is inevitably linked to the abundance of aerosols as cloud condensation nuclei. However, the aerosol effects are unaccounted for in most operational hurricane forecast models. We combined multisource measurements and cloud‐resolving model simulations to show fundamentally altered cloud microphysical and thermodynamic processes by anthropogenic aerosols during Hurricane Harvey. Our observational analyses reveal intense lightning and precipitation in the proximity of Houston industrial areas, and these hot spots exhibit a striking geographic similarity to a climatological maximum of lightning flash density in the south‐central United States. Our ensemble cloud‐resolving simulations of Hurricane Harvey indicate that aerosols increase precipitation and lightning by a factor of 2 in the Houston urban area, unraveling the key anthropogenic factor in regulating flooding during this weather extreme