Is monetary policy really neutral in the long-run? Evidence for some emerging and developed economies

The traditional economic theory suggests that changes in the money supply or in the interest rates can influence the business cycle, but not the long-run potential output. In other words, monetary policy is neutral over the long-run. In this paper we use some new developments in econometrics to test for the existence of a long-run relationship between the monetary policy instrument used by most Central Banks - short-term interest rates - and real output. Using annual data for 14 emerging and developed countries our results offer overall support for the traditional economic theory.Money neutrality, monetary policy, cointegration tests.

Inflation Targeting and Fear of Floating in Brazil, Mexico and South Korea

We present evidence on Fear of Floating (FF) practices before and after the adoption of Inflation Targeting (IT) for three emerging countries that faced important exchange rate crises in the 1990’s (Brazil, Mexico and South Korea). We start using the methodologies proposed by Calvo and Reinhart (2002) and Ball and Reyes (2008), and check the probabilities of observing small monthly exchange rate changes, combined with large movements in policy instruments (international reserves and interest rates), which should indicate some degree of exchange rate targeting. This initial exercise suggests a progress towards greater exchange rate flexibility after IT. We then use a VAR model to analyse the monetary policy response to exchange rate and inflation shocks, and detect a drastic reduction in direct intervention in the foreign exchange market after IT, accompanied by a stronger response to inflation. These findings are consistent with the IT framework, and suggest a reduced role for FF.Inflation Targeting, Fear of Floating

Inflation targeting and exchange rate pass-through

The paper presents evidence on exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) for a set of emerging markets before and after the adoption of Inflation Targeting (IT). Some developed economies are also analysed for comparison. We use an ARDL model to estimate the short-run and the long-run effects of depreciations on consumer and producer prices. The results show that ERPT has declined after IT for both price indexes. Nonetheless, this reduction does not mean that ERPT is no longer existent, especially over the long-run.O artigo apresenta evidência sobre o exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) para um grupo de economias emergentes que adotaram o regime de metas inflacionárias. Algumas economias desenvolvidas também são analisadas para efeito de comparação. O ERPT é estimado por meio de um modelo ARDL para preços ao consumidor e ao produtor. Os resultados mostram uma forte redução do ERPT para ambos os índices de preços, após a adoção do regime de metas. A queda observada, porém, não significa que o ERPT tenha sido totalmente eliminado, em especial no longo prazo

Structural changes in exchange rate regimes in Brazil

Following a dramatic breakdown of a managed floating regime, Brazil adopted a framework for policy consisting of inflation targeting and floating exchange rates. The country's commitment to this arrangement, however, is often put to dispute. In this paper we revisit the issue of whether Brazil has truly accepted to let its currency float, taking use of cross-currency linear regression models complemented by inferential techniques for evaluating the stability of exchange rate regimes. The results found suggest that Brazil does seem to have shifted towards greater exchange rate flexibility after the abandonment of its dollar-peg. However, after the adoption of inflation targeting the degree of exchange rate flexibility seems to have reduced a little.Structural changes; exchange rate regimes; emerging markets.

A dinâmica da execução orçamentária federal do Brasil sob a ótica dos ciclos políticos eleitorais, 1985-2010

Este artigo investiga a existência e a intensidade da relação entre o calendário das eleições presidenciais brasileiras e a dinâmica da execução orçamentária federal, no período de 1985 a 2010, levando em conta as mudanças institucionais nesse período. Concluiu-se que a política fiscal federal apresenta comportamento cíclico, onde as receitas e despesas públicas estão condicionadas, em boa parte, à periodicidade das eleições presidenciais. Foi inconclusivo o efeito da Emenda à Reeleição sobre a condução da política fiscal. Todavia, a Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal permitiu reduzir as oscilações cíclicas em boa parte das despesas e receitas do orçamento federal

Assimetria no repasse da taxa de câmbio para a inflação: evidências para o Brasil

Neste artigo investigamos a existência de uma relação não linear dos repasses cambiais para a inflação medida pelos índices de preços ao consumidor e ao produtor no Brasil, utilizando dados mensais entre janeiro de 2000 a junho de 2015. Para isso, estimamos diferentes especificações desse repasse para os índices de preços por meio de um modelo TVAR (Threshold Vector Autoregressive) que usa a taxa de câmbio como variável threshold. Os resultados encontrados confirmam a importância do repasse cambial na dinâmica da inflação brasileira, bem como sugerem a existência de assimetria em relação à direção da variação da taxa de câmbio – em geral os repasses são maiores quando há depreciação cambial. Os resultados também indicam que a evidência de assimetria está mais presente para o período anterior à crise de 2008, o que pode estar associado aos efeitos da crise sobre o markup das empresas. Palavras-chave: Repasse cambial, Assimetria, Inflação.TÍTULO EM INGLÊSAsymmetric exchange rate pass-through: evidence for Brazil AbstractThis paper investigates the existence of a nonlinear exchange rate pass-through in Brazil from January 2000 to June 2015. For this purpose, we estimate different specifications of a TVAR (Threshold Autoregressive Vector) model in which we use the exchange rate as the threshold variable. The results confirm the important role of exchange rate pass-through in determining Brazilian inflation, as well as the existence of asymmetry related to the direction of the exchange rate changes – i.e. higher rates of pass-through are associated with exchange depreciations. The results also show that the evidence of asymmetry is stronger for the period prior the 2008 financial crisis, which may be associated with lower markups in the aftermath of the crisis.Key words: Exchange pass-through, Asymmetry, Inflation Classificação JEL: C13, E31, E58Artigo recebido em set. 2017 e aceito para publicação em jan. 2018. 

Kidney involvement in malaria: an update

Malaria is an infectious disease of great importance for Public Health, as it is the most prevalent endemic disease in the world, affecting millions of people living in tropical areas of the globe. Kidney involvement is relatively frequent in infections by P. falciparum and P. malariae, but has also been described in the infection by P. vivax. Kidney complications in malaria mainly occur due to hemodynamic dysfunction and immune response. Liver complications leading to hepatomegaly, jaundice and hepatic dysfunction can also contribute to the occurrence of acute kidney injury. Histologic studies in malaria also evidence glomerulonephritis, acute tubular necrosis and acute interstitial nephritis. It is also possible to find chronic kidney disease associated with malaria, mainly in those patients suffering from repeated episodes of infection. Plasmodium antigens have already been detected in the glomeruli, suggesting a direct effect of the parasite in the kidney, which can trigger an inflammatory process leading to different types of glomerulonephritis. Clinical manifestations of kidney involvement in malaria include proteinuria, microalbuminuria and urinary casts, reported in 20 to 50% of cases. Nephrotic syndrome has also been described in the infection by P. falciparum, but it is rare. This paper highlights the main aspects of kidney involvement in malaria and important findings of the most recent research addressing this issue

Catálogo Taxonômico da Fauna do Brasil: setting the baseline knowledge on the animal diversity in Brazil

The limited temporal completeness and taxonomic accuracy of species lists, made available in a traditional manner in scientific publications, has always represented a problem. These lists are invariably limited to a few taxonomic groups and do not represent up-to-date knowledge of all species and classifications. In this context, the Brazilian megadiverse fauna is no exception, and the Catálogo Taxonômico da Fauna do Brasil (CTFB) (http://fauna.jbrj.gov.br/), made public in 2015, represents a database on biodiversity anchored on a list of valid and expertly recognized scientific names of animals in Brazil. The CTFB is updated in near real time by a team of more than 800 specialists. By January 1, 2024, the CTFB compiled 133,691 nominal species, with 125,138 that were considered valid. Most of the valid species were arthropods (82.3%, with more than 102,000 species) and chordates (7.69%, with over 11,000 species). These taxa were followed by a cluster composed of Mollusca (3,567 species), Platyhelminthes (2,292 species), Annelida (1,833 species), and Nematoda (1,447 species). All remaining groups had less than 1,000 species reported in Brazil, with Cnidaria (831 species), Porifera (628 species), Rotifera (606 species), and Bryozoa (520 species) representing those with more than 500 species. Analysis of the CTFB database can facilitate and direct efforts towards the discovery of new species in Brazil, but it is also fundamental in providing the best available list of valid nominal species to users, including those in science, health, conservation efforts, and any initiative involving animals. The importance of the CTFB is evidenced by the elevated number of citations in the scientific literature in diverse areas of biology, law, anthropology, education, forensic science, and veterinary science, among others