Tooling-up for infectious disease transmission modelling.

In this introduction to the Special Issue on methods for modelling of infectious disease epidemiology we provide a commentary and overview of the field. We suggest that the field has been through three revolutions that have focussed on specific methodological developments; disease dynamics and heterogeneity, advanced computing and inference, and complexity and application to the real-world. Infectious disease dynamics and heterogeneity dominated until the 1980s where the use of analytical models illustrated fundamental concepts such as herd immunity. The second revolution embraced the integration of data with models and the increased use of computing. From the turn of the century an emergence of novel datasets enabled improved modelling of real-world complexity. The emergence of more complex data that reflect the real-world heterogeneities in transmission resulted in the development of improved inference methods such as particle filtering. Each of these three revolutions have always kept the understanding of infectious disease spread as its motivation but have been developed through the use of new techniques, tools and the availability of data. We conclude by providing a commentary on what the next revoluition in infectious disease modelling may be

COVID-19 length of hospital stay: a systematic review and data synthesis.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has placed an unprecedented strain on health systems, with rapidly increasing demand for healthcare in hospitals and intensive care units (ICUs) worldwide. As the pandemic escalates, determining the resulting needs for healthcare resources (beds, staff, equipment) has become a key priority for many countries. Projecting future demand requires estimates of how long patients with COVID-19 need different levels of hospital care. METHODS: We performed a systematic review of early evidence on length of stay (LoS) of patients with COVID-19 in hospital and in ICU. We subsequently developed a method to generate LoS distributions which combines summary statistics reported in multiple studies, accounting for differences in sample sizes. Applying this approach, we provide distributions for total hospital and ICU LoS from studies in China and elsewhere, for use by the community. RESULTS: We identified 52 studies, the majority from China (46/52). Median hospital LoS ranged from 4 to 53 days within China, and 4 to 21 days outside of China, across 45 studies. ICU LoS was reported by eight studies-four each within and outside China-with median values ranging from 6 to 12 and 4 to 19 days, respectively. Our summary distributions have a median hospital LoS of 14 (IQR 10-19) days for China, compared with 5 (IQR 3-9) days outside of China. For ICU, the summary distributions are more similar (median (IQR) of 8 (5-13) days for China and 7 (4-11) days outside of China). There was a visible difference by discharge status, with patients who were discharged alive having longer LoS than those who died during their admission, but no trend associated with study date. CONCLUSION: Patients with COVID-19 in China appeared to remain in hospital for longer than elsewhere. This may be explained by differences in criteria for admission and discharge between countries, and different timing within the pandemic. In the absence of local data, the combined summary LoS distributions provided here can be used to model bed demands for contingency planning and then updated, with the novel method presented here, as more studies with aggregated statistics emerge outside China

Quantifying the relationship between climatic indicators and leptospirosis incidence in Fiji: a modelling study

Leptospirosis, a global zoonotic disease, is prevalent in tropical and subtropical regions, including Fiji where it’s endemic with year-round cases and sporadic outbreaks coinciding with heavy rainfall. However, the relationship between climate and leptospirosis has not yet been well characterised in the South Pacific. In this study, we quantify the effects of different climatic indicators on leptospirosis incidence in Fiji, using a time series of weekly case data between 2006 and 2017. We used a Bayesian hierarchical mixed-model framework to explore the impact of different precipitation, temperature, and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators on leptospirosis cases over a 12-year period. We found that total precipitation from the previous six weeks (lagged by one week) was the best precipitation indicator, with increased total precipitation leading to increased leptospirosis incidence (0.24 [95% CrI 0.15–0.33]). Negative values of the Niño 3.4 index (indicative of La Niña conditions) lagged by four weeks were associated with increased leptospirosis risk (-0.2 [95% CrI -0.29 –-0.11]). Finally, minimum temperature (lagged by one week) when included with the other variables was positively associated with leptospirosis risk (0.15 [95% CrI 0.01–0.30]). We found that the final model was better able to capture the outbreak peaks compared with the baseline model (which included seasonal and inter-annual random effects), particularly in the Western and Northern division, with climate indicators improving predictions 58.1% of the time. This study identified key climatic factors influencing leptospirosis risk in Fiji. Combining these results with demographic and spatial factors can support a precision public health framework allowing for more effective public health preparedness and response which targets interventions to the right population, place, and time. This study further highlights the need for enhanced surveillance data and is a necessary first step towards the development of a climate-based early warning system

Estimating the duration of seropositivity of human seasonal coronaviruses using seroprevalence studies.

BACKGROUND: The duration of immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is still uncertain, but it is of key clinical and epidemiological importance. Seasonal human coronaviruses (HCoV) have been circulating for longer and, therefore, may offer insights into the long-term dynamics of reinfection for such viruses. METHODS: Combining historical seroprevalence data from five studies covering the four circulating HCoVs with an age-structured reverse catalytic model, we estimated the likely duration of seropositivity following seroconversion. RESULTS: We estimated that antibody persistence lasted between 0.9 (95% Credible interval: 0.6 - 1.6) and 3.8 (95% CrI: 2.0 - 7.4) years. Furthermore, we found the force of infection in older children and adults (those over 8.5 [95% CrI: 7.5 - 9.9] years) to be higher compared with young children in the majority of studies. CONCLUSIONS: These estimates of endemic HCoV dynamics could provide an indication of the future long-term infection and reinfection patterns of SARS-CoV-2

Transmission modelling of environmentally persistent zoonotic diseases: a systematic review.

Transmission of many infectious diseases depends on interactions between humans, animals, and the environment. Incorporating these complex processes in transmission dynamic models can help inform policy and disease control interventions. We identified 20 diseases involving environmentally persistent pathogens (ie, pathogens that survive for more than 48 h in the environment and can cause subsequent human infections), of which indirect transmission can occur from animals to humans via the environment. Using a systematic approach, we critically appraised dynamic transmission models for environmentally persistent zoonotic diseases to quantify traits of models across diseases. 210 transmission modelling studies were identified and most studies considered diseases of domestic animals or high-income settings, or both. We found that less than half of studies validated their models to real-world data, and environmental data on pathogen persistence was rarely incorporated. Model structures varied, with few studies considering the animal-human-environment interface of transmission in the context of a One Health framework. This Review highlights the need for more data-driven modelling of these diseases and a holistic One Health approach to model these pathogens to inform disease prevention and control strategies

Towards a leptospirosis early warning system in northeastern Argentina

Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease with a high burden in Latin America, including northeastern Argentina, where flooding events linked to El Niño are associated with leptospirosis outbreaks. The aim of this study was to evaluate the value of using hydrometeorological indicators to predict leptospirosis outbreaks in this region. We quantified the effects of El Niño, precipitation, and river height on leptospirosis risk in Santa Fe and Entre Ríos provinces between 2009 and 2020, using a Bayesian modelling framework. Based on several goodness of fit statistics, we selected candidate models using a long-lead El Niño 3.4 index and shorter lead local climate variables. We then tested predictive performance to detect leptospirosis outbreaks using a two-stage early warning approach. Three-month lagged Niño 3.4 index and one-month lagged precipitation and river height were positively associated with an increase in leptospirosis cases in both provinces. El Niño models correctly detected 89% of outbreaks, while short-lead local models gave similar detection rates with a lower number of false positives. Our results show that climatic events are strong drivers of leptospirosis incidence in northeastern Argentina. Therefore, a leptospirosis outbreak prediction tool driven by hydrometeorological indicators could form part of an early warning and response system in the region

Standards of conduct and reporting in evidence syntheses that could inform environmental policy and management decisions

Accurate, unbiased and concise synthesis of available evidence following clear methodology and transparent report‑ ing is necessary to support effective environmental policy and management decisions. Without this, less reliable and/ or less objective reviews of evidence could inform decision making, leading to ineffective, resource wasteful inter‑ ventions with potential for unintended consequences. We evaluated the reliability of over 1000 evidence syntheses (reviews and overviews) published between 2018 and 2020 that provide evidence on the impacts of human activities or effectiveness of interventions relevant to environmental management. The syntheses are drawn from the Col‑ laboration for Environmental Evidence Database of Evidence Reviews (CEEDER), an online, freely available evidence service for evidence users that assesses the reliability of evidence syntheses using a series of published criteria. We found that the majority of syntheses have problems with transparency, replicability and potential for bias. Overall, our results suggest that most recently published evidence syntheses are of low reliability to inform decision making. Reviews that followed guidance and reporting standards for evidence synthesis had improved assessment ratings, but there remains substantial variation in the standard of reviews amongst even these. Furthermore, the term ‘system‑ atic review’, which implies conformity with a methodological standard, was frequently misused. A major objective of the CEEDER project is to improve the reliability of the global body of environmental evidence reviews. To this end we outline freely available online resources to help improve review conduct and reporting. We call on authors, editors and peer reviewers to use these resources to ensure more reliable syntheses in the future

Unlocking the diagnostic power of plasma extracellular vesicle miR-200 family in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

Background: Distinguishing benign from malignant pancreaticobiliary disease is challenging because of the absence of reliable biomarkers. Circulating extracellular vesicles (EVs) have emerged as functional mediators between cells. Their cargos, including microRNAs (miRNAs), are increasingly acknowledged as an important source of potential biomarkers. This multicentric, prospective study aimed to establish a diagnostic plasma EV-derived miRNA signature to discriminate pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) from benign pancreaticobiliary disease. Methods: Plasma EVs were isolated using size exclusion chromatography (SEC) and characterised using nanoparticle tracking analysis, electron microscopy and Western blotting. EV-RNAs underwent small RNA sequencing to discover differentially expressed markers for PDAC (n = 10 benign vs. 10 PDAC). Candidate EV-miRNAs were then validated in a cohort of 61 patients (n = 31 benign vs. 30 PDAC) by RT-qPCR. Logistic regression and optimal thresholds (Youden Index) were used to develop an EV-miR-200 family model to detect cancer. This model was tested in an independent cohort of 95 patients (n = 30 benign, 33 PDAC, and 32 cholangiocarcinoma). Results: Small RNA sequencing and RT-qPCR showed that EV-miR-200 family members were significantly overexpressed in PDAC vs. benign disease. Combined expression of the EV-miR-200 family showed an AUC of 0.823. In an independent validation cohort, application of this model showed a sensitivity, specificity and AUC of 100%, 88%, and 0.97, respectively, for diagnosing PDAC. Conclusions: This is the first study to validate plasma EV-miR-200 members as a clinically-useful diagnostic biomarker for PDAC. Further validation in larger cohorts and clinical trials is essential. These findings also suggest the potential utility in monitoring response and/or recurrence. Graphical Abstract