Are We There Yet? Combining qualitative and quantitative methods to study the introduction of CAVs in Sweden, and potential travel demand effects.

By law, Sweden must reach net-zero emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 2045. Domestic transportation is one sector in which GHG emissions can be reduced substantially. Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) could potentially help with this and with the transition to a more efficient transportation system, but they could also instead make meeting the target harder. The issues of how CAV technology will be introduced to the general public and what the effects will be are fraught with uncertainty. Thus far, much policy research has been informed by technical, quantitative studies, such as the one in Paper 1 of this licentiate thesis. The study analyses the impact CAVs may have on travel demand. The methodology is based on an induced travel demand model that simulates the effects on Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKT) related to changes in Value of Travel Time (VoTT) and the cost of CAV technology. In our most conservative scenario—with the smallest change in VoTT and highest CAV cost—we estimate an average increase in travel distance by car of 5% once CAVs are a mature technology on the market, while this increase reaches 61% in the least conservative scenario. Our results also show that income matters: Under certain conditions, those who are able to work remotely and have a relatively high income have a greater economic incentive to purchase a CAV and extend their travel distance. In Paper 2, we identify and map the broader societal drivers and pressures for the introduction of CAVs in cities. The approach taken in the paper has a theoretical basis in transition management and stakeholder theories and uses a combination of the Drivers, Pressures, State, Impact, and Response (DPSIR) framework and force field analysis to analyse interview transcripts. Survey data complement this analysis. The results provide in- depth knowledge about how actors in different parts of society perceive the introduction of CAVs and the mechanisms behind the expansion of these vehicles. It is clear from the interviews and survey that CAVs are not seen as unconditionally positive; instead, many stakeholders believe CAVs need to be connected to mobility planning and public transport strategies

A Ticket to Ride: The Market Potential for Electric Trucks in Urban Building and Construction.

The purpose of this thesis is to determine how electric vehicle trucks can meet the needs of customers in the urban building and construction sector. This sector contributes significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and also creates noise and other disturbances in urban environments. There are multiple benefits that come with electric trucks, which can address these issues if they are used for applications within cities. In order for electric trucks to be considered by customers, they must be matched properly with customer needs. Data was collected from customers through a series of expert interviews and a survey of truck drivers. Original Equipment Manufacturers, logistics experts, policy experts, and construction companies were among those interviewed to better understand the current industry situation. The data was organized into a Value Proposition canvas that showed both the customer issues and the subsequent solutions that can be created through the use of electric trucks. The major findings showed that customers are wary of electric trucks, but that they are aware that changing policies could make electric trucks a more competitive choice for their business. They expect that municipal legislation will become stricture in regard to environmental regulations. Furthermore, experts interviewed during this research agreed that environmental restrictions in cities will become stricter in the future, and electric trucks may eventually be a part of these regulations. Many pilot projects exist across Europe that can encourage the uptake of these trucks, including some very notable projects in Sweden. In order for these projects to have an impact, they must involve Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs), municipal governments, and truck customers. It will be crucial to educate customers about the electric truck technology, and also to assist them with initial financial risk in the near future

Transitional behavioral intention to use autonomous electric car-sharing services: Evidence from four European countries

Electric car-sharing services (ECS) have been promoted as a solution to combat negative urban mobility externalities and are expected to be facilitated by fleets of autonomous vehicles. There is little evidence regarding the behavioral intention to use autonomous ECS (AECS), especially on the transition from using ECS. This paper investigates the behavioral intention to use AECS using psychological constructs partially from the extended unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT2) and an additional one expressing safety concern. A novel behavioral intention model is presented to capture the transitional behavioral intention to use two adjacent generations of sharing mobility services. Results of structural equation models applied to a survey sample of 2154 respondents from France, Italy, Netherlands, and Spain show that the introduction of AECS is very likely to be accepted by ECS users. Hedonic motivation is found to be a much stronger predictor of behavioral intention to use AECS as opposed to safety concern, while performance expectancy and social influence are strong drivers of intention to use ECS and have indirect effects on the intention to use AECS. Multigroup analysis indicates heterogeneous behavioral intention across countries. The multi-faceted empirical results generate insights into the deployment and management of AECS in various contexts

Too much pressure? Driving and restraining forces and pressures relating to the state of connected and autonomous vehicles in cities

Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) are predicted by many analysts to transform the transport system over the coming decades. Which direction and path this transformation will take remains highly uncertain, as do the related environmental effects. In the present study we examine the introduction of CAVs in cities in terms of the indirect or underlying processes (drivers) and the direct expressions of interest that are related to specific actions, events or processes (pressures). The drivers and pressures are identified in interviews with stakeholders from across the quadruple helix (academia, industry, government and civil society). We then use an analytical framework that combines the drivers and pressures of the DPSIR (Driving forces, Pressures, States, Impacts, Responses) model and force field analysis. This framework is used to map survey data on the strength of the driving and restraining forces and pressures behind the introduction of CAVs in cities, and to identify which stakeholders are involved in this socio-technical transition. Results showed that there was a strong belief across stakeholder groups that CAVs should be connected with mobility planning strategies. This need for planning has been discussed at length in other contexts, and now our results show that respondents find this need is also present in the Swedish context. An unexpected finding was that those who are sceptical to CAVs may form unique groups with a broad range of stakeholder types, for example elderly people, cyclists, people who are concerned because of conspiracies related to new technology, and those who are concerned about environmental effects