Relationship between Volatility of Economics Variables and Economics Growth

Economic growth of an economy is defined as the steady state path through which the productivity of an economy is improved and increases the levels of national output and income. The government consumption expenditures and investment play a key role in the process of investigating the macroeconomic performance of an economy and determinants of economic growth. The countries which grow quickly, invest a substantial fraction of their GDP for consumption expenditures as well for the sources which encourage private investment. The objective of this study to calculate the volatility in economics growth in Pakistan. The annual time series data are used from 1975 to 2014 from WDI, Economics survey of Pakistan and Hand Book of Statistics. GARCH model has been used to measure volatility of all variables. The empirical results of the study confirmed that the volatility of the different variables (volatility of inflation, volatility of interest rate, volatility of political instability, volatility of GDP, and volatility of foreign direct investment) significant affect the government consumption expenditures and private investment in the economy of Pakistan. The study analyzed data by using the autoregressive distributive lag model which is mainly used in time series data Econometrics to estimate the non-stationary models with mix order of integration. The estimated results of the study evaluated that volatility of the inflation lead to uncertainty which is also suggested by the Able (1980) and negatively affect the economy consumption expenditures as well as private investment in the economy of Pakistan. Because uncertainty directly affects the cost of capital as well as reduce private investor confidence

Phytochemical screening and antioxidant evaluation of millet varieties of Pakistan

The current research was planned to measure the comparative phytochemical and anti-oxidative potential of aqueous and methanolic extracts of two indigenously grown millet varieties of Pakistan. The locally available millet varieties, i.e. MB-87 and AF-POP flours were chemically characterized through the proximate and mineral analysis. The antioxidant extract was prepared in water and methanol. The extracts were screened for saponins, terpenoids, flavonoids and tannins; methanolic extract of MB-87 and AF-POP showed flavonoids in an average quantity (++), whilst aqueous extract had only trace (+) values. The phytochemical screening showed the presence of saponins only in the aqueous extract of both varieties. However, terpenoids and tannins were present in both methanolic and aqueous extracts. During antioxidant evaluation, millet methanolic extracts showed higher level of TPC and DPPH of MB-87 and AF-POP as 0.30±0.001 & 0.23±0.0012 mg GAE/g and 48±0.96 &46±1.09%, respectively. However, the β-carotene activity of the aqueous extract of both varieties (MB-87 and AF-POP) was recorded higher. In a nutshell, the methanolic extract of MB-87 has an appreciable atioxidant profile. Furher research should be planned to screen the important constituents of Pakistani millet varieties

Bioactivity-guided isolation of rosmarinic acid as the principle bioactive compound from the butanol extract of Isodon rugosus against pea aphid, Acyrthosiphon pisum

Aphids are agricultural pest insects that transmit viruses and cause feeding damage on a global scale. Current pest control involving the excessive use of synthetic insecticides over decades has led to multiple forms of aphid resistance to most classes of insecticides. In nature, plants produce secondary metabolites during their interaction with insects and these metabolites can act as toxicants, antifeedants, anti-oviposition agents and deterrents towards the insects. In a previous study, we demonstrated that the butanol fraction from a crude methanolic extract of an important plant species, Isodon rugosus showed strong insecticidal activity against the pea aphid, Acyrthosiphon pisum. It was however not known as which compound was responsible for such activity. To further explore this finding, current study aimed to exploit a bioactivity-guided strategy to isolate and identify the active compound in the butanol fraction of I. rugosus. As such, reversed-phase flash chromatography, acidic extraction and different spectroscopic techniques were used to isolate and identify the new compound, rosmarinic acid as the bioactive compound in I. rugosus. Insecticidal activity of rosmarinic acid was carried out using standard protocols on A. pisum. The data was analyzed using qualitative and quantitative statistical approaches. Considering that a very low concentration of this compound (LC90 = 5.4 ppm) causes significant mortality in A. pisum within 24 h, rosmarinic acid could be exploited as a potent insecticide against this important pest insect. Furthermore, I. rugosus is already used for medicinal purposes and rosmarinic acid is known to reduce genotoxic effects induced by chemicals, hence it is expected to be safer compared to the current conventional pesticides. While this study highlights the potential of I. rugosus as a possible biopesticide source against A. pisum, it also provides the basis for further exploration and development of formulations for effective field application

Bioactivity-guided isolation of rosmarinic acid as the principal bioactive compound from the butanol extract of Isodon rugosus against the pea aphid, Acyrthosiphon pisum

Aphids are agricultural pest insects that transmit viruses and cause feeding damage on a global scale. Current pest control practices involving the excessive use of synthetic insecticides over many years have resulted in aphid resistance to a number of pesticides. In nature, plants produce secondary metabolites during their interaction with insects and these metabolites can act as toxicants, antifeedants, anti-oviposition agents and deterrents towards the insects. In a previous study, we demonstrated that the butanol fraction from a crude methanolic extract of an important plant species, Isodon rugosus showed strong insecticidal activity against the pea aphid, Acyrthosiphon pisum. To further explore this finding, the current study aimed to exploit a bioactivity-guided strategy to isolate and identify the active compound in the butanol fraction of I. rugosus. As such, reversed-phase flash chromatography, acidic extraction and different spectroscopic techniques were used to isolate and identify the new compound, rosmarinic acid, as the bioactive compound in I. rugosus. Insecticidal potential of rosmarinic acid against A. pisum was evaluated using standard protocols and the data obtained was analyzed using qualitative and quantitative statistical approaches. Considering that a very low concentration of this compound (LC90 = 5.4 ppm) causes significant mortality in A. pisum within 24 h, rosmarinic acid could be exploited as a potent insecticide against this important pest insect. Furthermore, I. rugosus is already used for medicinal purposes and rosmarinic acid is known to reduce genotoxic effects induced by chemicals, hence it is expected to be safer compared to the current conventional pesticides. While this study highlights the potential of I. rugosus as a possible biopesticide source against A. pisum, it also provides the basis for further exploration and development of formulations for effective field application

Bioactivity-guided isolation of rosmarinic acid as the principal bioactive compound from the butanol extract of Isodon rugosus against the pea aphid, Acyrthosiphon pisum (vol 14, e0215048, 2019)

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0215048.]

Effectiveness of unani regimen in protecting high risk population from COVID -19: A pilot study

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread globally. COVID-19 presents varied clinical features. The present study focuses on number of patients turning COVID-19 positive, change in Immune Status Questionnaire (ISQ) and WHO quality of life- Bref (WHO Qol – BREF) scales after taking intervention. This open labelled, double arm, controlled, interventional, clinical trial was conducted on high-risk individuals i.e., those residing with a COVID-19 positive member in the identified quarantine area. This twin armed study was conducted on asymptomatic individuals exposed to COVID -19. The test group were prescribed Unani poly-herbal decoction together with Unani formulations Khamira Marwareed and Tiryaq e Arba whereas the control group was not on any intervention. The duration of intervention was 20 days; follow ups were planned on day 10 and day 20. Of the 81 participants enrolled, none of the patients turned COVID-19 positive. However, 13.58% (n=11) developed COVID like symptoms and 70 patients completed the study. The mean age of the participants was 41.42±16.9 years; however, majority of the participants were 18-28 years male with Damvi (Sanguine) temperament. The quality of life of the intervention group improved significantly however, the immune status in both the groups increased with P <0.001. The Unani prophylactic regimen provides a 62% (relative risk reduction) protection against COVID -19. This pilot study paves for a study on a larger population. No adverse effects were observed during the study. Absence of biochemical investigations were limitations to the study

Laparoscopy in management of appendicitis in high-, middle-, and low-income countries: a multicenter, prospective, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Appendicitis is the most common abdominal surgical emergency worldwide. Differences between high- and low-income settings in the availability of laparoscopic appendectomy, alternative management choices, and outcomes are poorly described. The aim was to identify variation in surgical management and outcomes of appendicitis within low-, middle-, and high-Human Development Index (HDI) countries worldwide. METHODS: This is a multicenter, international prospective cohort study. Consecutive sampling of patients undergoing emergency appendectomy over 6 months was conducted. Follow-up lasted 30 days. RESULTS: 4546 patients from 52 countries underwent appendectomy (2499 high-, 1540 middle-, and 507 low-HDI groups). Surgical site infection (SSI) rates were higher in low-HDI (OR 2.57, 95% CI 1.33-4.99, p = 0.005) but not middle-HDI countries (OR 1.38, 95% CI 0.76-2.52, p = 0.291), compared with high-HDI countries after adjustment. A laparoscopic approach was common in high-HDI countries (1693/2499, 67.7%), but infrequent in low-HDI (41/507, 8.1%) and middle-HDI (132/1540, 8.6%) groups. After accounting for case-mix, laparoscopy was still associated with fewer overall complications (OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.42-0.71, p < 0.001) and SSIs (OR 0.22, 95% CI 0.14-0.33, p < 0.001). In propensity-score matched groups within low-/middle-HDI countries, laparoscopy was still associated with fewer overall complications (OR 0.23 95% CI 0.11-0.44) and SSI (OR 0.21 95% CI 0.09-0.45). CONCLUSION: A laparoscopic approach is associated with better outcomes and availability appears to differ by country HDI. Despite the profound clinical, operational, and financial barriers to its widespread introduction, laparoscopy could significantly improve outcomes for patients in low-resource environments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02179112

Global economic burden of unmet surgical need for appendicitis

Background: There is a substantial gap in provision of adequate surgical care in many low-and middle-income countries. This study aimed to identify the economic burden of unmet surgical need for the common condition of appendicitis. Methods: Data on the incidence of appendicitis from 170 countries and two different approaches were used to estimate numbers of patients who do not receive surgery: as a fixed proportion of the total unmet surgical need per country (approach 1); and based on country income status (approach 2). Indirect costs with current levels of access and local quality, and those if quality were at the standards of high-income countries, were estimated. A human capital approach was applied, focusing on the economic burden resulting from premature death and absenteeism. Results: Excess mortality was 4185 per 100 000 cases of appendicitis using approach 1 and 3448 per 100 000 using approach 2. The economic burden of continuing current levels of access and local quality was US $92 492 million using approach 1 and$73 141 million using approach 2. The economic burden of not providing surgical care to the standards of high-income countries was $95 004 million using approach 1 and$75 666 million using approach 2. The largest share of these costs resulted from premature death (97.7 per cent) and lack of access (97.0 per cent) in contrast to lack of quality. Conclusion: For a comparatively non-complex emergency condition such as appendicitis, increasing access to care should be prioritized. Although improving quality of care should not be neglected, increasing provision of care at current standards could reduce societal costs substantially

Pooled analysis of WHO Surgical Safety Checklist use and mortality after emergency laparotomy

Background The World Health Organization (WHO) Surgical Safety Checklist has fostered safe practice for 10 years, yet its place in emergency surgery has not been assessed on a global scale. The aim of this study was to evaluate reported checklist use in emergency settings and examine the relationship with perioperative mortality in patients who had emergency laparotomy. Methods In two multinational cohort studies, adults undergoing emergency laparotomy were compared with those having elective gastrointestinal surgery. Relationships between reported checklist use and mortality were determined using multivariable logistic regression and bootstrapped simulation. Results Of 12 296 patients included from 76 countries, 4843 underwent emergency laparotomy. After adjusting for patient and disease factors, checklist use before emergency laparotomy was more common in countries with a high Human Development Index (HDI) (2455 of 2741, 89.6 per cent) compared with that in countries with a middle (753 of 1242, 60.6 per cent; odds ratio (OR) 0.17, 95 per cent c.i. 0.14 to 0.21, P <0001) or low (363 of 860, 422 per cent; OR 008, 007 to 010, P <0.001) HDI. Checklist use was less common in elective surgery than for emergency laparotomy in high-HDI countries (risk difference -94 (95 per cent c.i. -11.9 to -6.9) per cent; P <0001), but the relationship was reversed in low-HDI countries (+121 (+7.0 to +173) per cent; P <0001). In multivariable models, checklist use was associated with a lower 30-day perioperative mortality (OR 0.60, 0.50 to 073; P <0.001). The greatest absolute benefit was seen for emergency surgery in low- and middle-HDI countries. Conclusion Checklist use in emergency laparotomy was associated with a significantly lower perioperative mortality rate. Checklist use in low-HDI countries was half that in high-HDI countries.Peer reviewe

Global variation in anastomosis and end colostomy formation following left-sided colorectal resection

Background End colostomy rates following colorectal resection vary across institutions in high-income settings, being influenced by patient, disease, surgeon and system factors. This study aimed to assess global variation in end colostomy rates after left-sided colorectal resection. Methods This study comprised an analysis of GlobalSurg-1 and -2 international, prospective, observational cohort studies (2014, 2016), including consecutive adult patients undergoing elective or emergency left-sided colorectal resection within discrete 2-week windows. Countries were grouped into high-, middle- and low-income tertiles according to the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI). Factors associated with colostomy formation versus primary anastomosis were explored using a multilevel, multivariable logistic regression model. Results In total, 1635 patients from 242 hospitals in 57 countries undergoing left-sided colorectal resection were included: 113 (6·9 per cent) from low-HDI, 254 (15·5 per cent) from middle-HDI and 1268 (77·6 per cent) from high-HDI countries. There was a higher proportion of patients with perforated disease (57·5, 40·9 and 35·4 per cent; P < 0·001) and subsequent use of end colostomy (52·2, 24·8 and 18·9 per cent; P < 0·001) in low- compared with middle- and high-HDI settings. The association with colostomy use in low-HDI settings persisted (odds ratio (OR) 3·20, 95 per cent c.i. 1·35 to 7·57; P = 0·008) after risk adjustment for malignant disease (OR 2·34, 1·65 to 3·32; P < 0·001), emergency surgery (OR 4·08, 2·73 to 6·10; P < 0·001), time to operation at least 48 h (OR 1·99, 1·28 to 3·09; P = 0·002) and disease perforation (OR 4·00, 2·81 to 5·69; P < 0·001). Conclusion Global differences existed in the proportion of patients receiving end stomas after left-sided colorectal resection based on income, which went beyond case mix alone