MAXBAND Version 3.1: Heuristic and optimal approach for setting the left turn phase sequences in signalized networks

The main objective of synchronized signal timing is to keep traffic moving along arterials in platoons throughout the signal system by proper setting of left turn phase sequence at signals along the arterials/networks. The synchronization of traffic signals located along the urban/suburban arterials in metropolitan areas is perhaps one of the most cost-effective methods for improving traffic flow along these streets. MAXBAND Version 2.1 (formerly known as MAXBAND-86), a progression-based optimization model, is used for generating signal timing plan for urban networks. This model formulates the problem as a mixed integer linear program and uses Land and Powell branch and bound search to arrive at the optimal solution. The computation time of MAXBAND Version 2.1 tends to be excessive for realistic multiarterial network problems due to the exhaustive nature of the branch and bound search technique. Furthermore, the Land and Powell branch and bound code is known to be numerically unstable, which results in suboptimal solutions for network problems with a range on the cycle time variable. This report presents the development of a new version of MAXBAND called MAXBAND Version 3.1. This new version has a fast heuristic algorithm and a fast optimal algorithm for generating signal timing plan for arterials and networks. MAXBAND 3.1 can generate optimal/near-optimal solutions in fraction of the time needed to compute the optimal solution by Version 2.1. The heuristic algorithm in the new model is based on restricted search using branch and bound technique. The algorithm for generating the optimal solution is faster and more efficient than version 2.1 algorithm. Furthermore, the new version is numerically stable. The efficiency of the new model is demonstrated by numerical results for a set of test problems

Intelligent transportation infrastructure deployment analysis system

Much of the work on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) to date has emphasized technologies, standards/protocols, architecture, user services, core infrastructure requirements, and various other technical and institutional issues. ITS implementations in the United States and elsewhere in the world have demonstrated benefits in the areas of safety, productivity, efficiency, and environmental impact. However, quantitative benefits and satisfactory cost estimates are not available or cannot be derived for many components of the ITS, whether deployed individually or in some integrated fashion. The limitations of existing analysis and evaluation capabilities coupled with the lack of strong empirical evidence presents a major knowledge and data gap for infrastructure investment decisions involving ITS alternatives. This paper describes the over-arching issues and requirements associated with the analysis capabilities required for a systematic, faithful, and rigorous evaluation of the impacts of deploying ITS in a metropolitan area. It then describes the conceptual framework of a modeling system that will provide a preliminary analysis capability to support ITS deployment analysis and evaluation

An improved response surface methodology algorithm with an application to traffic signal optimization for urban networks

This paper illustrates the use of the simulation-optimization technique of response surface methodology (RSM) in traffic signal optimization of urban networks. It also quantifies the gains of using the common random number (CRN) variance reduction strategy in such an optimization procedure. An enhanced RSM algorithm which employs conjugate gradient search techniques and successive second-order models is presented instead of the conventional approach. An illustrative example using an urban traffic network exhibits the superiority of using the CRN strategy ovr direct simulation in performing traffic signal optimization. Relative performance of the two strategies is quantified with computational results using the total network-wide delay as the measure of effectivness

Enteroviruses in Patients with Acute Encephalitis, Uttar Pradesh, India

An outbreak of viral encephalitis occurred in northern India in 2006. Attempts to identify an etiologic agent in cerebrospinal fluid by using reverse transcription–PCR showed positivity to enterovirus (EV) in 66 (21.6%) of 306 patients. Sequencing and phylogenetic analyses of PCR products from 59 (89.3%) of 66 specimens showed similarity with EV-89 and EV-76 sequences

Enteroviruses in Patients with Acute Encephalitis, Uttar Pradesh, India

An outbreak of viral encephalitis occurred in northern India in 2006. Attempts to identify an etiologic agent in cerebrospinal fluid by using reverse transcription–PCR showed positivity to enterovirus (EV) in 66 (21.6%) of 306 patients. Sequencing and phylogenetic analyses of PCR products from 59 (89.3%) of 66 specimens showed similarity with EV-89 and EV-76 sequences

Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems

BackgroundHuman immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico.MethodsWe performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.ResultsAll countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries-apart from Ecuador-across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50% or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10% of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups-the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017.ConclusionsOur subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and diverging local trends in HIV mortality over time and by age. This analysis provides a framework for incorporating data and uncertainty from incomplete VR systems and can help guide more geographically precise public health intervention to support HIV-related care and reduce HIV-related deaths.Peer reviewe

Anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2018

Anemia is a globally widespread condition in women and is associated with reduced economic productivity and increased mortality worldwide. Here we map annual 2000–2018 geospatial estimates of anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age (15–49 years) across 82 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), stratify anemia by severity and aggregate results to policy-relevant administrative and national levels. Additionally, we provide subnational disparity analyses to provide a comprehensive overview of anemia prevalence inequalities within these countries and predict progress toward the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) to reduce anemia by half by 2030. Our results demonstrate widespread moderate improvements in overall anemia prevalence but identify only three LMICs with a high probability of achieving the WHO GNT by 2030 at a national scale, and no LMIC is expected to achieve the target in all their subnational administrative units. Our maps show where large within-country disparities occur, as well as areas likely to fall short of the WHO GNT, offering precision public health tools so that adequate resource allocation and subsequent interventions can be targeted to the most vulnerable populations.Peer reviewe

Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems

Background: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico. Methods: We performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Results: All countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries�apart from Ecuador�across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50 or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10 of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups�the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45 years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017. Conclusions: Our subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and diverging local trends in HIV mortality over time and by age. This analysis provides a framework for incorporating data and uncertainty from incomplete VR systems and can help guide more geographically precise public health intervention to support HIV-related care and reduce HIV-related deaths

Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4 (62.3 (55.1�70.8) million) to 6.4 (58.3 (47.6�70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization�s Global Nutrition Target of <5 in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2 (30 (22.8�38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0 (55.5 (44.8�67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic. © 2020, The Author(s)