Reassessing the scope of OR practice:the influences of problem structuring methods and the analytics movement

This paper argues that if OR is to prosper it needs to more closely reflect the needs of organizations and its practitioners. Past research has highlighted a gap between theoretical research developments, applications and the methods most frequently used in organizations. The scope of OR applications has also been contested with arguments as to the expanding boundaries of OR. But despite this, anecdotal evidence suggests that OR has become marginalized in many contexts. In order to understand these changes, IFORS (International Federation of OR Societies) in 2009 conducted a survey of global OR practice. The aim was to provide current evidence on the usage of OR tools, areas of application, and the barriers to OR’s uptake, as well as the educational background of OR practitioners. Results presented here show practitioners falling into three segments, which can be loosely characterized as those practicing ‘traditional’ OR, those adopting a range of softer techniques including Problem Structuring Methods (PSMs), and a Business Analytics cluster. When combined with other recent survey evidence, the use of PSMs and Business Analytics is apparently extending the scope of OR practice. In particular, the paper considers whether the Business Analytics movement, with an overlapping skill set to traditional OR but with a fast growing organizational base, offers a route to diminishing the gap between academic research and practice. The paper concludes with an exploration of whether this represents not just an opportunity for OR but also a serious challenge to its established practices

Understanding and knowledge of credit cost and duration: Effects on credit judgements and decisions

Financial capability requires understanding measures of consumer credit cost and using them appropriately in credit judgements and decisions. In three studies, UK adults’ understanding and use of credit cost and duration information were investigated from a bounded rationality perspective. Study 1, part of a representative survey of UK adults (N = 1000), found that when presented with annual percentage rate (APR) participants significantly overestimated the total cost (TC) of a 12-month loan. In Study 2, loan duration and APR were varied in an independent groups experiment (N = 242). Bank customers’ TC estimates were sensitive to both loan duration and APR but TC was again substantially overestimated. Study 3 was an independent groups experiment investigating the effect of APR and TC information on credit decisions (N = 241). APR often influenced decisions between loans varying in duration and monthly repayment, but this effect was moderated by TC information. It was concluded that: (1) people generally misunderstand the relation between APR and TC; and (2) although APR information can have a large effect on credit decisions, its effect is either attenuated or amplified by TC information. The findings are interpreted in terms of a ‘take the best APR’ heuristic and a dual mental account model of instalment credit. Recommendations for improving credit information provision and financial education are offered

Risk management in everyday insurance decisions: Evidence from a process tracing study

This study examined the applicability of Huber's (1997) model of risk management to a real world consumer insurance decision, namely whether to insure a recently purchased item against possible mechanical breakdown in the future. Huber argued that decision makers manage the risks of negative outcomes by applying one or more defusing operators. Respondents in this study asked for whatever information they felt necessary to decide whether to take out an extended warranty on two consumer products of differing values. We found support for most aspects of the model, particularly in relation to risk defusing operators, but also identified some respondents who could not easily be accommodated within it, i.e. those who perceived risk, but did not seem prepared to take any action. We also found evidence for recognition primed insurance decisions. The results are interpreted from a bounded rationality perspective

Individual decision making in static, sequential and dynamic situations.

Static, sequential and dynamic models of decision making situations and additive and subjectively expected utility models of decision making behaviour are defined and discussed in chapter 1. Results from conjoint measurement theory are surveyed in chapter 2 and their application to a qualitative functional analysis (QFA) of the information integration models is discussed. An important issue is how to deal with fallible data. In chapter 3 functional measurement for binary choice data by the method of minimum normit chi square is considered with a view to examining information integration models quantitatively. In the last of the 4 theoretical chapters a selective review of experimental work related to some major issues in decision theory is represented. Six -pair comparison experiments are reported in chapters 5 to 7, in five of them choices were observed and in the other (experiment 2) statements of preference were elicited. The subjects were randomly selected university students whose results were analysed individually. The alternatives available to subjects were gambles for small amounts of money, which they actually played in real play situations. Experiments 1 - 3 were set in static decision¬ making situations, 4 and 3 in sequential ones and experiment 6 was set in a dynamic situation. In experiment 2 the role of indifference in decision making was investigated by QFA and found to be minor. In experiments 1, 3 and 5 information integration models were investigated by QFA and functional measurement. Support for SEU models and not additive ones was found. In experiments 4 and 5 the effects on choices of current capital and previous outcome were found to be negligible. Experiment 5 was a study of an additive information integration model in a simple, two stage, dynamic betting game. A functional measurement analysis led to its rejection. In the final chapter the results are discussed in relation to previous work. Methodological difficulties which arose from the use of the analytic methods are considered and partly resolved. It is concluded that they are suitable techniques for the present application. The future of the information integration models is also discussed. It is concluded that as descriptive models of behaviour in static, sequential and dynamic situations they still have a very useful role to play

More than buttons on controllers: engaging social interactions in narrative VR games through social attitudes detection

People can understand how human interaction unfolds and can pinpoint social attitudes such as showing interest or social engagement with a conversational partner. However, summarising this with a set of rules is difficult, as our judgement is sometimes subtle and subconscious. Hence, it is challenging to program agents or non-player characters (NPCs) to react towards social signals appropriately, which is important for immersive narrative games in Virtual Reality (VR). We present a collaborative work between two game studios (Maze Theory and Dream Reality Interactive) and academia to develop an immersive machine learning (ML) pipeline for detecting social engagement. Here we introduce the motivation and the methodology of the immersive ML pipeline, then we cover the motivation for the industry-academia collaboration, how it progressed, the implications of joined work on the industry and reflective insights on the collaboration. Overall, we highlight the industry-academia collaborative work on an immersive ML pipeline for detecting social engagement. We demonstrate how creatives could use ML and VR to expand their ability to design more engaging commercial games

Transcontextual mechanisms in contemporary art music

Transcontextuality occurs in (contemporary art) music when musical material in one style is inserted into a work in a different style. The inserted material is termed a transcontextua/ artefact and has (at least) two contexts: a previous context, to which it traditionally belongs, and a present or new context, in which it is now heard. The term 'transcontextuality' encapsulates the idea of transference from one context to another. It also emphasises the importance of context. The phenomenon is context-dependent. In transferring musical material from a previous context to a new work (the composer's own) a composer intentionally refers to the codes associated with the artefact and its source. The code which may be transmitted by an artefact can usually be described as belonging to one or more of several artefact-types, referring to: a style; a work; a composer's opus; or a genre. An artefact in contemporary Western music may also be 'transcultural', in that it refers to a non-Westem culture. A listener is expected to play the role of a decoder, potentially recognising transcontextual material, deciphering a code and consequently interpreting the meaning of an artefact in its (new) context. Code-transmission is partially dependent on the degree of decoder competence, and mismatches are possible between an encoder's envisaged code and a decoder's deciphered version

Propensity to spend and borrow at a time of high pressure: the role of the meaning of Christmas and other psychological factors

In countries where Christmas is celebrated, people are under pressure in the pre-Christmas period to spend on gift giving and socializing. In two surveys we investigated the role of the meaning of Christmas and other psychological factors in predicting propensity to spend and to borrow at Christmas (UK, N = 190; Norway, N = 234). Factor analysis identified three components of the meaning of Christmas: financial concerns, indulgence, and social aspects. In both surveys: (1) experienced financial hardship predicted lower propensity to spend and greater propensity to borrow; (2) more proactive money management practices predicted lower propensity to borrow; (3) material values predicted both propensity to spend and propensity to borrow; and (4) seeing Christmas as a time for indulgence, experiencing more negative affect, or less positive affect, predicted greater propensity to spend. Additionally: (1) in the UK survey, participants who said that lately they had been feeling more negative (more angry, sad etc.) had a greater propensity to borrow; and (2) in the Norway survey, an obligation gift motivation predicted propensity to spend. The findings show that in addition to experienced financial hardship and proactive money management practices, the psychological factors of material values, affect, and gift motivation play significant roles in propensity to spend and/or borrow at this time of high pressure. We discuss implications for theory and financial interventions

Individual-level factors predicting consumer financial behavior at a time of high pressure

Understanding the individual-level factors relating to consumer financial behaviors during periods of distinct pressure to spend may provide new insights as to the particular barriers people face in maintaining better control over their finances. Using Christmas as a focal example of a financially and psychologically pressured time, we collected survey data (N= 294) in the post-Christmas 2013 period, and investigated the extent to which levels of reported spending and borrowing in relation to Christmas could be predicted by sociodemographics, money management behaviors, and psychological factors such as coping style, locus of control, materialism, and spendthrift tendencies. A separate analysis examined the kinds of factors relating more specifically to money management behaviors. Spending was predicted by factors including external locus of control and spendthrift tendency. Emotional coping and denial coping predicted borrowing behavior, as did external locus of control. Money management behaviors predicted who borrowed, but were not related to amount borrowed. Spendthrift tendencies and materialistic values were predictive of less active money management. Our findings suggest that interventions to improve financial decision making might prove more effective if increased emphasis is placed on psychological issues such as developing coping skills and buffering agency

First generation immigrant judgements of offence seriousness: evidence from the crime survey for England and Wales

This exploratory paper delves into differences and similarities in the rated seriousness of offences suffered by victims of different national origin. The issue is important because a mismatch between police and victim assessments of seriousness is likely to fuel discord. It was found that first generation immigrants did not differ in their rating of the seriousness of offences against the person from either the indigenous population or according to region of birth. However those of Asian origin rated vehicle and property crime they had suffered as more serious than did other groups about crimes they suffered. The anticipated higher seriousness rating of offences reported to the police r was observed for all groups. People of Asian origin reported to the police a smaller proportion of offences they rated trivial than did people in other groups. Analysis of seriousness judgements in victimization surveys represents a much-underused resource for understanding the nexus between public perceptions and criminal justice responses