198 research outputs found

    Confronting models with data: the challenges of estimating disease spillover

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    For pathogens known to transmit across host species, strategic investment in disease control requires knowledge about where and when spillover transmission is likely. One approach to estimating spillover is to directly correlate observed spillover events with covariates. An alternative is to mechanistically combine information on host density, distribution and pathogen prevalence to predict where and when spillover events are expected to occur. We use several case studies at the wildlife–livestock disease interface to highlight the challenges, and potential solutions, to estimating spatiotemporal variation in spillover risk. Datasets on multiple host species often do not align in space, time or resolution, and may have no estimates of observation error. Linking these datasets requires they be related to a common spatial and temporal resolution and appropriately propagating errors in predictions can be difficult. Hierarchical models are one potential solution, but for fine-resolution predictions at broad spatial scales, many models become computationally challenging. Despite these limitations, the confrontation of mechanistic predictions with observed events is an important avenue for developing a better understanding of pathogen spillover. Systems where data have been collected at all levels in the spillover process are rare, or non-existent, and require investment and sustained effort across disciplines. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover’

    Lessons learned from research and surveillance directed at highly pathogenic influenza A viruses in wild birds inhabiting North America

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    Following detections of highly pathogenic (HP) influenza A viruses (IAVs) in wild birds inhabiting East Asia after the turn of the millennium, the intensity of sampling of wild birds for IAVs increased throughout much of North America. The objectives for many research and surveillance efforts were directed towards detecting Eurasian origin HP IAVs and understanding the potential of such viruses to be maintained and dispersed by wild birds. In this review, we highlight five important lessons learned from research and surveillance directed at HP IAVs in wild birds inhabiting North America: (1) Wild birds may disperse IAVs between North America and adjacent regions via migration, (2) HP IAVs can be introduced to wild birds in North America, (3) HP IAVs may cross the wild bird-poultry interface in North America, (4) The probability of encountering and detecting a specific virus may be low, and (5) Population immunity of wild birds may influence HP IAV outbreaks in North America. We review empirical support derived from research and surveillance efforts for each lesson learned and, furthermore, identify implications for future surveillance efforts, biosecurity, and population health. We conclude our review by identifying five additional areas in which we think future mechanistic research relative to IAVs in wild birds in North America are likely to lead to other important lessons learned in the years ahead

    Genetic evidence supports sporadic and independent introductions of subtype H5 low pathogenic avian influenza A viruses from wild birds to domestic poultry in North America

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    Wild-bird origin influenza A viruses (IAVs or avian influenza) have led to sporadic outbreaks among domestic poultry in the United States and Canada, resulting in economic losses through the implementation of costly containment practices and destruction of birds. We used evolutionary analyses of virus sequence data to determine that 78 H5 low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses (LPAIVs) isolated from domestic poultry in the United States and Canada during 2001 to 2017 resulted from 18 independent virus introductions from wild birds. Within the wild-bird reservoir, the hemagglutinin gene segments of H5 LPAIVs exist primarily as two cocirculating genetic sublineages, and our findings suggest that the H5 gene segments flow within each migratory bird flyway and among adjacent flyways, with limited exchange between the nonadjacent Atlantic and Pacific Flyways. Phylogeographic analyses provided evidence that IAVs from dabbling ducks and swans/geese contributed to the emergence of viruses among domestic poultry. H5 LPAIVs isolated from commercial farm poultry (i.e., turkey) that were descended from a single introduction typically remained a single genotype, whereas those from live-bird markets sometimes led to multiple genotypes, reflecting the potential for reassortment with other IAVs circulating within live-bird markets. H5 LPAIVs introduced from wild birds to domestic poultry represent economic threats to the U.S. poultry industry, and our data suggest that such introductions have been sporadic, controlled effectively through production monitoring and a stamping-out policy, and are, therefore, unlikely to result in sustained detections in commercial poultry operations. IMPORTANCE Integration of viral genome sequencing into influenza surveillance for wild birds and domestic poultry can elucidate evolutionary pathways of economically costly poultry pathogens. Evolutionary analyses of H5 LPAIVs detected in domestic poultry in the United States and Canada during 2001 to 2017 suggest that these viruses originated from repeated introductions of IAVs from wild birds, followed by various degrees of reassortment. Reassortment was observed where biosecurity was low and where opportunities for more than one virus to circulate existed (e.g., congregations of birds from different premises, such as live-bird markets). None of the H5 lineages identified were maintained for the long term in domestic poultry, suggesting that management strategies have been effective in minimizing the impacts of virus introductions on U.S. poultry production

    Low-Pathogenic Influenza A Viruses in North American Diving Ducks Contribute to the Emergence of a Novel Highly Pathogenic Influenza A(H7N8) Virus

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    Introductions of low-pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses of subtypes H5 and H7 into poultry from wild birds have the potential to mutate to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses, but such viruses’ origins are often unclear. In January 2016, a novel H7N8 HPAI virus caused an outbreak in turkeys in Indiana, USA. To determine the virus’s origin, we sequenced the genomes of 441 wild-bird origin influenza A viruses (IAVs) from North America and subjected them to evolutionary analyses. The results showed that the H7N8 LPAI virus most likely circulated among diving ducks in the Mississippi flyway during autumn 2015 and was subsequently introduced to Indiana turkeys, in which it evolved high pathogenicity. Preceding the outbreak, an isolate with six gene segments (PB2, PB1, PA, HA, NA, and NS) sharing \u3e99% sequence identity with those of H7N8 turkey isolates was recovered from a diving duck sampled in Kentucky, USA. H4N8 IAVs from other diving ducks possessed five H7N8-like gene segments (PB2, PB1, NA, MP, and NS; \u3e98% sequence identity). Our findings suggest that viral gene constellations circulating among diving ducks can contribute to the emergence of IAVs that affect poultry. Therefore, diving ducks may serve an important and understudied role in the maintenance, diversification, and transmission of IAVs in the wild-bird reservoir

    Evidence that pairing with genetically similar mates is maladaptive in a monogamous bird

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    <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Evidence of multiple genetic criteria of mate choice is accumulating in numerous taxa. In many species, females have been shown to pair with genetically dissimilar mates or with extra-pair partners that are more genetically compatible than their social mates, thereby increasing their offsprings' heterozygosity which often correlates with offspring fitness. While most studies have focused on genetically promiscuous species, few studies have addressed genetically monogamous species, in which mate choice tends to be mutual.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Here, we used microsatellite markers to assess individual global heterozygosity and genetic similarity of pairs in a socially and genetically monogamous seabird, the black-legged kittiwake <it>Rissa tridactyla</it>. We found that pairs were more genetically dissimilar than expected by chance. We also identified fitness costs of breeding with genetically similar partners: (i) genetic similarity of pairs was negatively correlated with the number of chicks hatched, and (ii) offspring heterozygosity was positively correlated with growth rate and survival.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These findings provide evidence that breeders in a genetically monogamous species may avoid the fitness costs of reproducing with a genetically similar mate. In such species that lack the opportunity to obtain extra-pair fertilizations, mate choice may therefore be under high selective pressure.</p

    Gulls as Sources of Environmental Contamination by Colistin-resistant Bacteria

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    In 2015, the mcr-1 gene was discovered in Escherichia coli in domestic swine in China that conferred resistance to colistin, an antibiotic of last resort used in treating multi-drug resistant bacterial infections in humans. Since then, mcr-1 was found in other human and animal populations, including wild gulls. Because gulls could disseminate the mcr-1 gene, we conducted an experiment to assess whether gulls are readily colonized with mcr-1 positive E. coli, their shedding patterns, transmission among conspecifics, and environmental deposition. Shedding of mcr-1 E. coli by small gull flocks followed a lognormal curve and gulls shed one strain \u3e101 log10 CFU/g in their feces for 16.4 days, which persisted in the environment for 29.3 days. Because gulls are mobile and can shed antimicrobial-resistant bacteria for extended periods, gulls may facilitate transmission of mcr-1 positive E. coli to humans and livestock through fecal contamination of water, public areas and agricultural operations

    Avian influenza at both ends of a migratory flyway: characterizing viral genomic diversity to optimize surveillance plans for North America

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    Although continental populations of avian influenza viruses are genetically distinct, transcontinental reassortment in low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses has been detected in migratory birds. Thus, genomic analyses of LPAI viruses could serve as an approach to prioritize species and regions targeted by North American surveillance activities for foreign origin highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). To assess the applicability of this approach, we conducted a phylogenetic and population genetic analysis of 68 viral genomes isolated from the northern pintail (Anas acuta) at opposite ends of the Pacific migratory flyway in North America. We found limited evidence for Asian LPAI lineages on wintering areas used by northern pintails in California in contrast to a higher frequency on breeding locales of Alaska. Our results indicate that the number of Asian LPAI lineages observed in Alaskan northern pintails, and the nucleotide composition of LPAI lineages, is not maintained through fall migration. Accordingly, our data indicate that surveillance of Pacific Flyway northern pintails to detect foreign avian influenza viruses would be most effective in Alaska. North American surveillance plans could be optimized through an analysis of LPAI genomics from species that demonstrate evolutionary linkages with European or Asian lineages and in regions that have overlapping migratory flyways with areas of HPAI outbreaks
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