Spatio-temporal Trends of Standardized Precipitation Index for Meteorological Drought Analysis across Agroclimatic Zones of India

1. Introduction:
Drought is a normal part of climate of India and every year it affects one or the other State. Droughts, like other meteorological phenomena, have spatial and temporal characteristics that vary significantly from one region to another. The understanding of the spatio-temporal trends of meteorological drought helps in undertaking informed decisions on their preparedness and mitigation measures. Though no significant trends have been reported in the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (IMSR) over long periods, the spatio-temporal trends in drought indices reveals the anomaly in rainfall across regions over different time scales which may be related to climate change induced extreme rainfall events. So, a study was carried out to compute spatio-temporal trends in Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), an index of rainfall anomaly, using gridded monthly rainfall datasets of CRU TS 3.0 for the 1951 – 2006 period for Indian landmass and the results are reported here.

2. Methodology:
SPI is simply the difference in standardized precipitation from its mean for a specified time period divided by the standard deviation. As precipitation is typically not normally distributed for accumulation periods of 12 months or less, SPI overcomes this disadvantage by fitting an incomplete gamma distribution and then transforming it to normal distribution. Negative values of SPI due to less than normal rainfall indicate dryness while SPI less than -1 indicate drought. Delineation of homogeneous regions for climate change / trend analysis has been a debatable matter due to unwise delineation of the homogeneous regions based on a single climatic variable, mostly the isohyets. Therefore, in this study 14 Agroclimatic Zones (ACZs) of India were selected for SPI trend analysis as homogeneous regions (Fig 1) due to commonality of climatic parameters and their extremes, soil types and water resources. The results of drought trends at ACZ level also can be directly translated into plans for agricultural sectors. SPI were computed for individual months (June, July, August and September) and for the whole Indian summer monsoon duration (June-July-August-September i.e. JJAS). Mean SPIs of various ACZs for the individual months and JJAS over a 56 year period were analyzed for temporal trends using the Mann Kendall test and regional temporal trends across all ACZ together using the Regional Kendall test.

3. Results:
Significant temporal trends in monthly & JJAS SPI at 10% or lower level of significance were observed for ACZ4 (Middle Gangetic plains), ACZ5 (Upper Gangetic plains), ACZ6 (Trans Gangetic plains), ACZ7 (Eastern plateau and hills), ACZ8 (Central plateau and hills), ACZ12 (West coast) and ACZ14 (Western dry) regions. The rest of the ACZs did not show any significant trend in SPI for the 56 year study period. In ACZ4, SPI showed a consistently negative trend for JUN, JUL, AUG and JJAS, whereas in ACZ5, SPI showed a significant negative trend for JUL, AUG & JJAS. SPI showed a significant negative trend in SEP & JJAS for ACZ7, AUG & JJAS in ACZ8, JUL in ACZ12 and AUG in ACZ14. On the other hand, a significantly positive trend in SPI was observed in JUN in ACZ6, ACZ8, and ACZ12. 
The analysis of temporal trends in SPI for all ACZs taken together using the Regional Kendall test showed a significant positive trend in JUN SPI, while significant negative trends in SPI were observed for JUL, AUG and JJAS across India. No significant trend was observed for SEP SPI. The rate of increase in JUN SPI was 0.75E-02 per year, while the rate of change of SPI for JUL, AUG, & JJAS was -0.76E-02, -0.54E-02, and -0.65E-02 per year, respectively.

4. Conclusions:
Among the different ACZ of India, there was an increase in probability of meteorological drought hazard in ACZ4, ACZ5, ACZ7 and ACZ8 covering the States of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa and Eastern Rajasthan. Results also point to a significant decreasing trend in rainfall in these regions for different months as well as for the JJAS monsoon period. In the dry western parts of India (Western Rajasthan and Gujarat), which are traditionally water scare regions, there is no change in probability of occurrence of meteorological drought. 
For India as a whole, there is an increase in probability of meteorological drought in the future due to decreasing trends in rainfall for the JJAS period. The months of July and August will become drier, while June will become wetter. This change in rainfall distribution towards the early period and overall drier months of July and August have an important implication for the productivity of the main crop season of India thus impacting its food security negatively

Impact of Climate Change on Northeast Monsoon System of India - Role of Siberian Teleconnection

The Northeast monsoon (NEM) precipitation has undergone a significant change in pattern over the last half century. The changing pattern of climatic variables over the moisture source (i.e. west Pacific High) and the heat sink (Siberian High) of the winter monsoon dynamics over time has caused a shift in the pattern of NEM precipitation over the southern peninsular region of India. There is no significant trend in NEM precipitation in the Indian region whereas the surface temperature has a significantly increasing trend over India during the NEM season. There is no significant trend in outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) of Siberian High (SH) while the west Pacific High (WPH) has a significantly increasing trend in OLR. Surface pressure of both the SH & WPH has no significant trend for the last 59 years (1948-2006). Surface temperature over SH & WPH has a significantly increasing trend for the last 59 years (1948-2006).There is a high correlation of NEM precipitation with El Nino & Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) and OLR of WPH during the period 1970-2000. It signifies that convectional activity in the moisture source region of the NEM, warm SST in the western Indian Ocean and the ENSO have a deep bearing on the NEM precipitation during the three decades 1970-2000. The correlation of NEM precipitation with ENSO, IOD during the last period 2000-2006 has undergone changes where the NEM precipitation has shown a shift that is negatively correlated with ENSO & IOD. The change is much more in IOD than ENSO which signifies that the conventional trend of bearing of warm or cold SST of West Indian ocean on NEM precipitation has decreased during this period of 2000-2006. The correlation of NEM precipitation with the convectional activity of the moisture sink region of the NEM has been gradually decreasing since the 1970s and the moisture source of NEM has a significantly decreasing convectional activity trend. The correlation of NEM precipitation with all three variables (OLR, surface pressure & surface temperature) has shown a comparatively higher value for the heat sink regions (Siberian High) than for the moisture source region (West Pacific High) during the period 2000-2006. Thus the NEM precipitation over India has faced a deep bearing by the role of Siberian High interference

THE RESEARCH UPDATES AND PROSPECTS OF HERBAL HARD-BOILED LOZENGES: A CLASSICAL PLATFORM WITH PROMISING DRUG DELIVERY POTENTIAL

Over the past decades major focus has been given towards innovative drug delivery systems and new dosage forms. This is due to highly expensive process and high attrition rates of existing marketed drugs. Hard-boiled lozenges (HBLs) are one of the solid dosage form designed to release the drug in saliva for either local or systemic effects. Typical application of lozenegs includes throat infection, pharyngitis, cough suppressant, nasal-decongestant, expectorants, and smoking cessation. The drug delivery through the hard-boiled candies has an easy marketing advantage due to its attractive appearance and patient compliance. As a part of the drug is absosrbed into systemic circulation, gastrointestinal degradation and fast pass effects are avoided. Further, drug delivery through hard-boiled lozenges can be potential platform for some of the suitable drug candidates. This review on hard-boiled lozenges discusses manufacturing process, characterization techniques, quality control, research studies and market potential of hard-boiled lozenges. The major databases searched were, PubMed, Wiley Online, Medline, Elsevier, Google scholar, Scopus, ACS, The Royal Society of Chemistry, SciFinder, Baidu Scholars, CNKI, web of science, Cochrane database, US Patents, Espacenet and various business reviews. This review provides comprehensive information on hard-boiled lozenges that will help the pharmaceutical scientist from academia as well pharmaceutical industry to leverage the potential of this conventional dosage form for various herbal drugs and other pharmaceutical actives

PHYTOCHEMICAL PROFILING, HPTLC FINGERPRINT AND ANTIBACTERIAL, ANTI-FUNGAL, AND ANTIOXIDANT PROPERTIES OF ESSENTIAL OILS EXTRACTED FROM CUMMINUM CYMINUM, ZINGIBER OFFICINALE, TRACHYSPERMUM AMMI, ALIPNIA GALANGA, CEDRUS DEODARA, AND ELETTARIA CARDAMOMUM

Objective: The objective of the study was to carry out the phytochemical profiling of essential oils (EOs) and evaluation of their anti-microbial activity. Methods: The EOs extracted from Cumminum cyminum, Zingiber officinale, Trachyspermum ammi, Alipnia galanga, Cedrus deodara, and Elettaria cardamomum using clavenger apparatus. Phytochemical analysis and high-performance thin layer chromatography (HPTLC) fingerprinting were carried out for the EO. The antibacterial and antifungal activity were evaluated using agar well-diffusion method against two bacterial strains, Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus and two fungal strains, Candida albicans, and Aspergillus brasiliensis. Positive controls ciprofloxacin-30 mg, azithromycin-15 mg, and nystatin NS-50 mg were used. Antioxidant potential of the EOs was investigated by TLC-bioautography method using 1,1-diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl derivatization. Results: The phytochemical analysis reveals presence of various phytochemical such as steroids, terpenoids, and phenylpropanoids. The HPTLC fingerprint is found to be unique for each of the oil. The EO of Z. officinale and T. ammi showed strong antibacterial activity against S. aureus. The EOs of C. cyminum, Tachyspermum ommi and A. galanga displayed prominent antioxidant activity on TLC bioautography. The herbs Cuminum cynimun, T. ammi, C. deodara, and Ellateria cardamomum produce reasonable amount of essentials oil, which can be explored for useful their industrial applications. Conclusions: These EOs can be explored further for their antimicrobial activity. The HPTLC analysis along with derivatization with suitable chromogenic reagents can be a rapid and simple tool for quality control of various EOs

Neurodevelopmental disorders in children aged 2-9 years: Population-based burden estimates across five regions in India.

BACKGROUND: Neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs) compromise the development and attainment of full social and economic potential at individual, family, community, and country levels. Paucity of data on NDDs slows down policy and programmatic action in most developing countries despite perceived high burden. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We assessed 3,964 children (with almost equal number of boys and girls distributed in 2-<6 and 6-9 year age categories) identified from five geographically diverse populations in India using cluster sampling technique (probability proportionate to population size). These were from the North-Central, i.e., Palwal (N = 998; all rural, 16.4% non-Hindu, 25.3% from scheduled caste/tribe [SC-ST] [these are considered underserved communities who are eligible for affirmative action]); North, i.e., Kangra (N = 997; 91.6% rural, 3.7% non-Hindu, 25.3% SC-ST); East, i.e., Dhenkanal (N = 981; 89.8% rural, 1.2% non-Hindu, 38.0% SC-ST); South, i.e., Hyderabad (N = 495; all urban, 25.7% non-Hindu, 27.3% SC-ST) and West, i.e., North Goa (N = 493; 68.0% rural, 11.4% non-Hindu, 18.5% SC-ST). All children were assessed for vision impairment (VI), epilepsy (Epi), neuromotor impairments including cerebral palsy (NMI-CP), hearing impairment (HI), speech and language disorders, autism spectrum disorders (ASDs), and intellectual disability (ID). Furthermore, 6-9-year-old children were also assessed for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and learning disorders (LDs). We standardized sample characteristics as per Census of India 2011 to arrive at district level and all-sites-pooled estimates. Site-specific prevalence of any of seven NDDs in 2-<6 year olds ranged from 2.9% (95% CI 1.6-5.5) to 18.7% (95% CI 14.7-23.6), and for any of nine NDDs in the 6-9-year-old children, from 6.5% (95% CI 4.6-9.1) to 18.5% (95% CI 15.3-22.3). Two or more NDDs were present in 0.4% (95% CI 0.1-1.7) to 4.3% (95% CI 2.2-8.2) in the younger age category and 0.7% (95% CI 0.2-2.0) to 5.3% (95% CI 3.3-8.2) in the older age category. All-site-pooled estimates for NDDs were 9.2% (95% CI 7.5-11.2) and 13.6% (95% CI 11.3-16.2) in children of 2-<6 and 6-9 year age categories, respectively, without significant difference according to gender, rural/urban residence, or religion; almost one-fifth of these children had more than one NDD. The pooled estimates for prevalence increased by up to three percentage points when these were adjusted for national rates of stunting or low birth weight (LBW). HI, ID, speech and language disorders, Epi, and LDs were the common NDDs across sites. Upon risk modelling, noninstitutional delivery, history of perinatal asphyxia, neonatal illness, postnatal neurological/brain infections, stunting, LBW/prematurity, and older age category (6-9 year) were significantly associated with NDDs. The study sample was underrepresentative of stunting and LBW and had a 15.6% refusal. These factors could be contributing to underestimation of the true NDD burden in our population. CONCLUSIONS: The study identifies NDDs in children aged 2-9 years as a significant public health burden for India. HI was higher than and ASD prevalence comparable to the published global literature. Most risk factors of NDDs were modifiable and amenable to public health interventions

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Not AvailableRisk of extreme precipitation anomaly of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) on agro-ecosystems of Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) and central-east India regions has been assessed in the present study. Using monthly gridded precipitation data, standardized precipitation index (SPI) has been computed as the hazard component of the standard risk computation. The agro-ecosystems of IGP are exposed to higher risk due to extreme ISM precipitation anomaly than that of the central-east India. IGP being an irrigated region and central-east India being a rainfed region would be affected differentially due to the increasing negative anomaly in precipitation (ie., drought risk) in the two regions. Overall the risk score and the prevalent agricultural practice suggest that the Central plateau and hill region in the rainfed region and the Upper Gangetic plain in the irrigated region are the most drought risk pone agroclimatic zones. Exceedance probability (EP) curve and the return period (RP) curve of drought risk quantification revealed that the Upper Gangetic plain of the IGP is conspicuously exposed to a higher drought risk unlike any other region. Increasing drought risk is coupled with increasing cloud cover in Upper Gangetic plain. Surface wind, temperature or the outgoing longwave radiation of this zone could not completely explain the cause of this risk. Changing role of average aerosol index (AAI) hinted to the presence of aerosol altered cloud micro-system in Upper Gangetic plain and may be one of the major reasons for increasing non-precipitating cloud in this zone and thus contributing to the drought risk even with increasing cloud cover trend.Not Availabl

Spectrophotometric Study of Reaction between Dioxouranium(VI) & 2-Hydroxy-4-methoxyacetophenone Oxime(Peonoloxime)

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Studies on Cu(II), Ni(II), Co(II), Mo(II) & Zn(II) Complexes with 2-Hydroxy-l-naphthaldoxime

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Not AvailableStandardized precipitation index (SPI) was computed with CRU TS3.0 gridded 0.5 × 0.5° monthly precipitation dataset for each of the 14 mainland agroclimatic zones (ACZs) of India for individual months (June, July, August and September) and season (JJAS) of summer monsoon for 56 yr (1951–2006). Mann Kendall Trend Test with the representative SPI of the ACZs shows that only six out of 14 mainland ACZs have a significant trend during summer monsoon. Trans-Gangetic plain significantly gains wetness during the month of June. West coast plain and hill has a typical feature of significant increasing trend of wetness during June and increasing dryness during July. In general Upper Gangetic plain, Middle Gangetic plain, Central plateau and hill and Eastern plateau and hill have a significantly increasing drying trend during the whole duration of summer monsoon season.Not Availabl

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Not AvailableRegional trend of summer monsoon precipitation has been analyzed for broad physical regions of India namely, (i) Indo-Gangetic plain, (ii) Central and East India, (iii) Coastal and Peninsular India and (iv) Western India. A significantly drying trend has been found in the two regions namely, Indo-Gangetic plain and Central and East India with comparative seasonal rate of drying higher in the latter region. A complex relation between the regional trend of summer monsoon precipitation, global teleconnection parameters and rice production of the regions have been studied. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) have a significant role in the precipitation anomaly of Indo-Gangetic plain unlike Central and East India where the ENSO only plays role as global teleconnection parameter. Rice production of Central and East India has been found to be affected adversely during the El Nino years. Central and East India is found to be the worst affected region compared to the Indo-Gangetic plain with respect to its fragile rainfed rice production potential and strong adverse teleconnection of El Nino on the rice production in this zone.Not Availabl