Resilience and stability of a pelagic marine ecosystem

The accelerating loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide has accentuated a long-standing debate on the role of diversity in stabilizing ecological communities and has given rise to a field of research on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (BEF). Although broad consensus has been reached regarding the positive BEF relationship, a number of important challenges remain unanswered. These primarily concern the underlying mechanisms by which diversity increases resilience and community stability, particularly the relative importance of statistical averaging and functional complementarity. Our understanding of these mechanisms relies heavily on theoretical and experimental studies, yet the degree to which theory adequately explains the dynamics and stability of natural ecosystems is largely unknown, especially in marine ecosystems. Using modelling and a unique 60-year dataset covering multiple trophic levels, we show that the pronounced multi-decadal variability of the Southern California Current System (SCCS) does not represent fundamental changes in ecosystem functioning, but a linear response to key environmental drivers channelled through bottom-up and physical control. Furthermore, we show strong temporal asynchrony between key species or functional groups within multiple trophic levels caused by opposite responses to these drivers. We argue that functional complementarity is the primary mechanism reducing community variability and promoting resilience and stability in the SCCS

Co-variations of Cholera with Climatic and Environmental Parameters in Coastal Regions of Tanzania

The bacterium causing cholera, Vibrio cholerae, is essentially a marine organism and its ecological dynamics have been linked to oceanographic conditions and climate. We used autoregressive models with external inputs to identify potential relationships between number of cholera cases in the coastal regions of mainland Tanzania with climatic and environmental indices (maximum air temperature, sea surface temperature, wind speed and chlorophyll a). Results show that between 2004 and 2010 coastal regions of mainland Tanzania with approximately 21% of the total population accounted for approximately 50% of the cases and 40% of the total mortality. Significant co-variations were found between seasonally adjusted cases and coastal ocean chlorophyll a and to some degree sea surface temperature, both lagged by one to four months. Cholera cases in Dar es Salaam were also weakly related to the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index lagged by 5 months, suggesting that it may be possible to predict Cholera outbreaks for Dar es Salaam 5 months ahead of time. The results also suggest that the severity of cholera in coastal regions is set by conditions in the ocean and that longer-term environmental and climate parameters may be used to predict cholera outbreaks along the coastal regions

Ecological Transitions in a Coastal Upwelling Ecosystem

The southern California Current Ecosystem (CCE) is a dynamic eastern boundary current ecosystem that is forced by ocean-atmosphere variability on interannual, multidecadal, and long-term secular time scales. Recent evidence suggests that apparent abrupt transitions in ecosystem conditions reflect linear tracking of the physical environment rather than oscillations between alternative preferred states. A space-for-time exchange is one approach that permits use of natural spatial variability in the CCE to develop a mechanistic understanding needed to project future temporal changes. The role of (sub)mesoscale frontal systems in altering rates of nutrient transport, primary and secondary production, export fluxes, and the rates of encounters between predators and prey is an issue central to this pelagic ecosystem and its future trajectory because the occurrence of such frontal features is increasing

Climate-mediated changes in marine ecosystem regulation during El Niño

The degree to which ecosystems are regulated through bottom-up, top-down, or direct physical processes represents a long-standing issue in ecology, with important consequences for resource management and conservation. In marine ecosystems, the role of bottom-up and top-down forcing has been shown to vary over spatio-temporal scales, often linked to highly variable and heterogeneously distributed environmental conditions. Ecosystem dynamics in the Northeast Pacific have been suggested to be predominately bottom-up regulated. However, it remains unknown to what extent top-down regulation occurs, or whether the relative importance of bottom-up and top-down forcing may shift in response to climate change. In this study, we investigate the effects and relative importance of bottom-up, top-down, and physical forcing during changing climate conditions on ecosystem regulation in the Southern California Current System (SCCS) using a generalized food web model. This statistical approach is based on nonlinear threshold models and a long-term data set (~60 years) covering multiple trophic levels from phytoplankton to predatory fish. We found bottom-up control to be the primary mode of ecosystem regulation. However, our results also demonstrate an alternative mode of regulation represented by interacting bottom-up and top-down forcing, analogous to wasp-waist dynamics, but occurring across multiple trophic levels and only during periods of reduced bottom-up forcing (i.e., weak upwelling, low nutrient concentrations, and primary production). The shifts in ecosystem regulation are caused by changes in ocean-atmosphere forcing and triggered by highly variable climate conditions associated with El Niño. Furthermore, we show that biota respond differently to major El Niño events during positive or negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), as well as highlight potential concerns for marine and fisheries management by demonstrating increased sensitivity of pelagic fish to exploitation during El Niño

Laser fluorescence analysis of phytoplankton across a frontal zone in the California Current ecosystem

Spatial variability of chlorophyll, phycobiliproteins, chromophoric dissolved organic matter and variable fluorescence (Fv/Fm) was analyzed across a deep-water density front in the Southern California Current Ecosystem using an Advanced Laser Fluorometer (ALF) calibrated to assess chlorophyll concentration (Cchl), total autotrophic carbon (AC) and Synechococcus carbon biomass (SYN). Three distinct autotrophic assemblages were identified. Fluorescence was found to be three to four times higher in cooler mesotrophic waters north of the front than in warm oligotrophic waters to the south. Northern waters were distinguished by a shallow pigment maximum dominated by a blue-water type of Synechococcus and by the presence of green-water Synechococcus and cryptophytes; only blue-water Synechococcus were detected at lower concentration south of the front. The highest Cchl and AC values, accompanied by elevated Fv/Fm and chlorophyll fluorescence per unit of Cchl, and minimal Synechococcus abundance, were found directly at the front in a 20–40 m deep layer dominated by diatoms. The covariation of Fv/Fm with nitrate concentration in this layer, along with the structural changes in the phytoplankton community, suggest that it had been generated by in situ processes rather than advection. Strong structural responses to the local hydrography were also revealed by high-frequency underway ALF surface sampling, which detected an abrupt transition from low to high SYN on the northern side of a sharp salinity gradient at the front. Synechococcus-specific phycoerythrin fluorescence (FPE12) and SYN were highly correlated in surface waters (R2= 0.95), while FPE12:SYN gradually increased with depth. Strong relationships were found for chlorophyll fluorescence versus Cchl (R2= 0.95) and AC (R2= 0.79)

The state of California current, 2001 – 2002 : will the Californa current system keep its cool, or is El Niño coming?

This report summarizes physical and biological conditions in the California Current System (CCS), from Oregon to Baja California, in 2001 and 2002. The principal sources of the observations described here are the CalCOFI (California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations), IMECOCAL (Investigaciones Mexicanas de la Corriente de California), and U.S. GLOBECLTOP (Global Ecosystems Long-term Observation Program) programs. Large-scale atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the Pacific point to a fourth consecutive La Niña-like year. This has contributed to generally stronger than normal upwelling and uncharacteristically cool waters in much of the CCS, a pattern that has persisted since late 1998. Biological productivity has been generally higher as well, particularly off Oregon. Within the observed interannual fluctuations of recent years, these conditions suggest a generally elevated production off California and Oregon, but cool conditions have led to lower than normal zooplankton biomass off Baja California. Although the tropical Pacific has exhibited some indications of a developing El Niño, it is not likely to impact the CCS during the productive upwelling season of 2002. These observations are continuing evidence that a regime shift may have occurred in 1998, resulting in substantial change in ecosystem structure in the CCS. Continued monitoring and analysis of the state of the CCS in this context is needed. We outline a plan for an integrated monitoring program for the entire region, through the creation of ACCEO (Alliance for California Current Ecosystem Observation)

State of the California Current 2014-15: Impacts of the Warm-Water "Blob"

In 2014, the California Current (~28˚–48˚N) saw average, or below average, coastal upwelling and relatively low productivity in most locations, except from 38˚–43˚N during June and July. Chlorophyll-a levels were low throughout spring and summer at most locations, except in a small region around 39˚N. Catches of juvenile rockfish (an indicator of upwelling-related fish species) remained high throughout the area surveyed (32˚–43˚N). In the fall of 2014, as upwelling ceased, many locations saw an unprecedented increase in sea surface temperatures (anomalies as large as 4˚C), particularly at 45˚N due to the coastal intrusion of an extremely anomalous pool of warm water. This warm surface anomaly had been building offshore in the Gulf of Alaska since the fall of 2013, and has been referred to as the “blob.” Values of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index (PDO) continued to climb during 2014, indicative of the increase in warm coastal surface waters, whereas the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation index (NPGO) saw a slight rebound to more neutral values (indicative of average productivity levels) during 2014. During spring 2015, the upwelling index was slightly higher than average for locations in the central and northern region, but remained below average at latitudes south of 35˚N. Chlorophyll a levels were slightly higher than average in ~0.5˚ latitude patches north of 35˚N, whereas productivity and phytoplankton biomass were low south of Pt. Conception. Catches of rockfish remained high along most of the coast, however, market squid remained high only within the central coast (36˚–38˚N), and euphausiid abundance decreased everywhere, as compared to the previous year. Sardine and anchovy were nearly absent from the southern portion of the California Current system (CCS), whereas their larvae were found off the coast of Oregon and Washington during winter for the first time in many years. Waters warmed dramatically in the southern California region due to a change in wind patterns similar to that giving rise to the blob in the broader northeast Pacific. For most of the coast, there were intrusions of species never found before or found at much higher abundances than usual, including fish, crustaceans, tunicates and other gelatinous zooplankton, along with other species often indicative of an El Niño. Thus species richness was high in many areas given the close juxtaposition of coastal upwelling-related species with the offshore warm-water intrusive or El Niño-typical taxa. Thus the California Current by 2015 appears to have transitioned to a very different state than previous observations

State of the California Current 2012–13: No Such Thing as an "Average" Year

This report reviews the state of the California Current System (CCS) between winter 2012 and spring 2013, and includes observations from Washington State to Baja California. During 2012, large-scale climate modes indicated the CCS remained in a cool, productive phase present since 2007. The upwelling season was delayed north of 42˚N, but regions to the south, especially 33˚ to 36˚N, experienced average to above average upwelling that persisted throughout the summer. Contrary to the indication of high production suggested by the climate indices, chlorophyll observed from surveys and remote sensing was below average along much of the coast. As well, some members of the forage assemblages along the coast experienced low abundances in 2012 surveys. Specifically, the concentrations of all lifestages observed directly or from egg densities of Pacific sardine, Sardinops sagax, and northern anchovy, Engraulis mordax, were less than previous years’ survey estimates. However, 2013 surveys and observations indicate an increase in abundance of northern anchovy. During winter 2011/2012, the increased presence of northern copepod species off northern California was consistent with stronger southward transport. Krill and small-fraction zooplankton abundances, where examined, were generally above average. North of 42˚N, salps returned to typical abundances in 2012 after greater observed concentrations in 2010 and 2011. In contrast, salp abundance off central and southern California increased after a period of southward transport during winter 2011/2012. Reproductive success of piscivorous Brandt’s cormorant, Phalacrocorax penicillatus, was reduced while planktivorous Cassin’s auklet, Ptychoramphus aleuticus was elevated. Differences between the productivity of these two seabirds may be related to the available forage assemblage observed in the surveys. California sea lion pups from San Miguel Island were undernourished resulting in a pup mortality event perhaps in response to changes in forage availability. Limited biological data were available for spring 2013, but strong winter upwelling coastwide indicated an early spring transition, with the strong upwelling persisting into early summer